New Everyday Starters — Aug 4, 2021

Everywhere you look, there’s a new starter. So let’s keep it going until I run out of names to discuss.

Travis Jankowski | PHI OF

Wow, Jankowski is still around?! As a result of Andrew McCutchen’s injury, Jankowski is now getting a chance to play regularly, having started in center field for the Phillies in three straight games. It’s possible he’ll be benched against left-handed starters, we’ll have to see once the team faces a lefty next.

Jankowski has exceeded 100 plate appearances just twice in a year, going back to his 2015 debut. In 2019 and 2020, he recorded just 41 PAs, so no one would have guessed he’d find himself with a starting job at any point during the season. He was at one time a pretty intriguing fantasy asset given his speed. He stole 30 bases in just 383 PAs (a 47 steal pace over 600 PAs) in 2016 and 24 over 387 PAs in 2018 (37 steal pace). For his career, he has swiped 38 bases per 600 plate appearances, so he would be one of the league leaders in the category if playing a full season. He also owns a career .321 OBP, so getting on base hasn’t been a major issue, though obviously you would like to see that higher.

The issue is a higher strikeout rate than you’d like to see given his limited power. However, his 7.5% SwStk% tells us it’s not an inability to make contact, but an overly patient approach in which he takes lots of called strikes. That’s more correctable than a swing and miss problem.

If you need steals and don’t mind giving up home run potential, Jankowski makes for a good target. He’s been hitting atop the lineup and has strikeout rate upside with the possibility for a better average than his career mark and projections.

Rodolfo Castro | PIT 2B/3B

The trade of Adam Frazier gives Castro significantly more secure playing time and he’s been playing every day now at second base plus a recent game at third. Castro headed into the season at the team’s 21st ranked prospect, with scouting grades that suggest a mix of both power and speed. Like many others, Castro never appeared at the Triple-A level, instead playing at Double-A this year and jumping right to the Majors. It’s a move I normally consider risky, but last year’s alternate site play that we have no stats for has changed things.

Since his Rookie league debut in 2016, Castro has posted double digit HR/FB rates and solid ISO marks, reaching as high as .274. His power didn’t dip upon his promotion to Double-A this year, as his HR/FB rate sat at 18% and ISO hit .227, both very solid marks, especially from a guy you can plug into a middle infield spot. He doesn’t walk a whole lot and the strikeout rate has ranged from the low-20% mark to the mid/high-20% mark. It’s not great, especially because it comes with a mid-teen SwStk%, but he does have enough power to make it acceptable.

Though he graded out at 55 for Speed, he has never stolen double digit bases in any year, topping out at just seven. Of course, none of his plate appearance totals matched what a full MLB season were, so perhaps he’s capable of just reaching double digits. That makes his profile look like an upside of 15-20 homers, plus 10 steals, which is attractive in any league format. However, a mix of BABIP marks and a strikeout rate somewhere in the 20% range could result in a slightly negative batting average.

Sam Hilliard | COL OF

I keep falling for Hilliard, then the Rockies give up on him far too quickly and give his playing time to some journeyman veteran. Welp, he’s back and has started in four of the team’s last five games, getting benched against a lefty, but also starting against one. Is the team finally just going to leave him alone and let him play every day, at least on the strong side of a platoon? I’m not getting my hopes up, but one can dream.

Hilliard is already 27, so he’s past the point of being labeled a prospect. But he’s only recorded 282 plate appearances in the Majors, so we still don’t really know what he’s actually capable of. The obvious reason he hasn’t got a true extended look is because of his high strikeout rate. He’s struck out 34.4% of the time, backed by a 16% SwStk%, and while he’s been better in the minors, he still struck out in the upper 20% range there. He does walk at about a league average rate, but all those strikeouts and a low BABIP during his short time in Colorado, have resulted in a sub-.300 OBP. That’s just unacceptable for a hitter who calls Coors Field home.

So clearly he needs to cut down on his strikeouts, or walk a bit more, or at least raise that BABIP. You would think he has the ability to improve on all of these issues, or at least one or two of them. If so, his power will finally overshadow his flaws, and not the other way around. He sports a career 30.5% HR/FB rate and has posted a 25%+ mark at Triple-A the last two seasons. His ISO also stands at .277 and hovered around .300 at Triple-A. His maxEV of 114.1 and Barrel% in double digit also support his mammoth power.

It’s not just big power he owns. Hilliard also has speed and has stolen as many as 37 bases in the minors. His MLB career pace over 600 PAs yields 13 steals to go along with 38 homers. That’s nearly what Joey Gallo is on pace for and given Gallo’s strikeout issues, makes for a good comp of Hilliard’s upside.

Derek Hill | DET OF

Hill isn’t quite an every day player as he has been on the bench in two of the last three times the Tigers faced a right-handed in the last six games. But he has been playing a lot recently, and for that reason alone, should draw interest in deeper leagues.

Hill was last ranked as the Tigers’ 28th best prospect back in 2019, but has failed to make the list since. His scouting grades tell the story of a hitter with some power, but big time speed. That’s exciting, because power doesn’t always translate to the Majors given the higher quality of pitchers, but as long as a hitter gets on base, the speed should. He stole 35 bases on two different occasions, but his success rate has decline as he’s climbed to higher levels. He stole only 21 bases at Double-A in 2019, and was caught 13 times. That’s not good for both fantasy owners and the Tigers.

His power does seem to be blossoming, as his HR/FB rate doubled to 10.7% at Double-A in 2019 an then jumped again to the mid-teen during his short time at Triple-A this year. Similarly, his ISO has been on the rise, reaching .189 this year.

His plate discipline needs work though, as he has struck out in the high-20% range during his last three minor league stints and hasn’t walked enough, or shown enough power, to make those marks acceptable. He has posted some strong BABIP marks though thanks to a low IFFB%, but it still hasn’t led to strong batting averages most of the time, except this year thanks to his crazy .438 BABIP.

Overall, there’s potential for a touch of power and a big more speed, but likely at the cost of batting average. He’s also not playing every day against right-handers, so his value looks limited to AL-Only leagues.