New Everyday Starters — Aug 3, 2021

The lists of new regular faces never ends! Since I had two more player requests in the comments of yesterday’s post, let’s continue on discussing those who have just recently earned everyday playing time, whether because of a trade deadline deal, injury, or whatever else.

Bryan De La Cruz | MIA OF

De La Cruz was acquired by the Marlins as part of a deal that sent reliever Yimi Garcia to the Astros. Since his recall from Triple-A, he had started all three games in right field. The 24-year-old wasn’t a top prospect, as he was ranked just 38th in the Astros system. During his minor league career, his strikeout rate has remained pretty consistent around 20%, but his walk rate has bounced around from well below average to average and even into double digits. So it’s hard to get a good read on his plate patience.

His power has typically been below average with HR/FB rates in single digits and ISO marks fluctuating from sub-.100 to the high-.100 range. The good news is he has shown his best power during his first taste of Triple-A, posting a 14.8% HR/FB rate and .195 ISO. He also hits a high enough rate of fly balls to make this newly found home run power meaningful.

When you aren’t sure about the power output, you hope to get from steals. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be a big source of those, but might chip in a couple over the rest of the season if he remains a starter. On the positive side, he’s generally posted strong BABIP marks, so that’s a positive for his batting average.

It seems clear that there’s no difference making potential here, but there’s no one else knocking on the door to take his job in the near term. Obviously, if he slumps for two weeks, there’s a strong chance he’s back in Triple-A. But the Marlins should give him a chance, and if he’s decent, he’ll add some value in NL-Only leagues.

Magneuris Sierra | MIA OF

Sierra is another Marlins outfielder getting a chance to play regularly, starting six straight games now. Unlike De La Cruz, Sierra is no stranger to the Majors, having made his debut all the way back in 2017. He’s been up for a small cup of coffee each season since, but including this year, has now played most of one full season, so we have some sort of MLB sample to evaluate.

Sierra’s Major League strikeout and walk rates are very similar to De La Cruz’s in the minors, with a low walk rate, but also a strikeout rate around 20%, which is better than average. He has managed an above average BABIP thanks to his high ground ball rate. He has also swiped 18 bases and has stolen as many as 36 in a season combining his minor and Major League stats in 2019. So he certainly has the speed necessary to make a fantasy impact.

The problem stems from his power, or complete lack of it. He owns an impossibly low .036 ISO during his time in the Majors, and as you may have guesses, has yet to hit a home run. Even Juan Pierre owned a career .066 ISO! Is there any hope for his power to develop? Well, he has homered in the minors, actually nine times in 2019. His HR/FB rates have typically sat in the low-to-mid single digit range, while his ISO marks were typically below .100, with a couple of stints a bit above. So sure, we could expect improvement, because it would be difficult not to, but a mid-to-high single digit home run total over a full season could be his max.

Hitting at the bottom of the order and with no power, he’s someone to consider only if you really need speed and you have determined that you have more to gain or prevent losing from his stolen bases than the opportunity cost of his nonexistent power and the effect it’s going to have on his runs scored and RBI totals.

Rafael Ortega | CHC

I had no idea, but Ortega has been up for a while, getting starts here and there. But he’s now started six straight games and his three homer performance on Sunday has introduced him to the fantasy world. Not only is Ortega starting every day, but he’s been hitting leadoff as well. Sure, the Cubs offense is laughable right now after all their trades, but leadoff is still an excellent spot regardless of the team it comes on.

Let’s get this straight first — Ortega is no prospect. He’s 30 years old and the definition of a journeyman, as this is now his seventh organization and he’s appeared in the Majors as long ago as 2012. He also has about a season’s worth of plate appearances from which to evaluate. And we’ll get right to it — those three homers were totally out of line with what he had done! Quite the surprise who even after the three homers still sports just a 7% HR/FB rate over his MLB career. Oh, and his ISO hasn’t even reached .100 yet, sitting at .098.

Perhaps encouraging though is that he did post a career best 16.7% HR/FB rate at Triple-A in 2019 along with a .239 ISO, and though it was a tiny sample, he carried that over at the same level this year with a 17.4% HR/FB rate and .234 ISO. It makes his current Cubs marks of 20.7% and .230 all the more believable that Ortega did actually make legit improvements to tap into his power. He also owns some speed, as he’s stolen 21 bases during his time in the Majors and already has four this year. So the potential for a power/speed mix is thee.

Coming into this writeup, I was expecting to flag Ortega has a fluke and not worth picking up, but digging deeper, he’s definitely someone to consider given the possibility that power breakout that began at Triple-A in 2019 was real.

Sergio Alcantara | CHC 2B/SS

Alcántara is another beneficiary of the Cubs’ flurry of moves as he has started the last three games, switching between shortstop and second base. Obviously, with Javier Baez now gone and also Nico Hoerner on the IL, an opportunity for regular playing time is there for the taking.

Alcántara is another who came up through the minors with almost zero power, but suddenly found his power stroke at Triple-A this year. Again, it’s a small sample of just 82 at-bats, but he posted a 20% HR/FB rate, after never exceeding 3.8%, and a .146 ISO, after sitting well below .100 nearly his entire minor league career. That’s significant because he also owns a touch of speed, so now he looks like a potential 10/10 guy, which is boring, but has its value.

He has typically posted low SwStk% marks in the minors and his current MLB mark is actually better than league average, so I would expect his strikeout rate to improve. It might not result in a positive batting average, but at least it should jump above .200.

Alcántara has been hitting eighth in the lineup and doesn’t own a standout skill, so it’s understandable not to get too excited here. He’s certainly the least desirable from this group, but regular playing time is regular playing time.