New Everyday Players — Aug 9, 2023

There are so many new faces to introduce you to and so little time to do so! Today, I continue to discuss a trio of new names finding themselves written onto starting lineup cards on a regular basis (or near regular for those lefties on the strong side of a platoon).

Mark Vientos | NYM 3B

The Mets did some Summer cleaning at the trade deadline and also demoted Brett Baty to Triple-A. Those moves have opened up a bunch of opportunities and Vientos has been one of the beneficiaries, filling the DH spot on most spots, but also starting at third and first bases.

The sixth ranked Mets prospect heading into the season, he sports gargantuan 65/70 Raw Power scouting grades, which means you have to at least pay attention here. He’s certainly shown big home run power in the minors, as he has posted a mark of at least 24.6% at Double-A and Triple-A since 2021. He has even posted ISO marks of at least .299 in all but one of those stints, so he’s been knocking doubles as well. He hasn’t been an extreme fly ball hitter, but he’s a bit above the league average, which is good enough to take advantage of his power without killing his BABIP.

Speaking of BABIP, he has posted strong marks the last couple of years and has never posted a mark below .311. It’s not totally clear from his batted ball distribution how he’s doing it, but he has been pretty good at avoiding pop-ups on his fly balls. That said, I wouldn’t expect a BABIP mark nearly as high as his Triple-A marks and the projection systems are all below .300 as well, except the optimistic ATC. Given a potentially high strikeout rate, it could make him your prototypical big power, low batting average slugger.

He has taken walks at times, but hasn’t been consistent throughout his career, so it’s tough to get a good idea here. If he did manage to post a double digit walk rate, he’d enjoy a value boost in OBP leagues.

He seems like an ideal bat to speculate on if you need home runs and it shouldn’t be too difficult for him to move up in the lineup for good if he hits.

Rafael Ortega | NYM OF

Gosh, the Mets must really be desperate for warm bodies with MLB experience if the 32-year-old Ortega is now their starting left fielder, and they even just recalled 34-year-old journeyman Abraham Almonte from Triple-A! Ortega came out of nowhere to be quite good offensively back in 2021 with the Cubs, showing solid all-around skills. But he faded last year in his follow-up, as his BABIP plummeted and his power disappeared.

This season at Triple-A, he showed fantastic plate patience, posting mid-to-upper teen walk rates, and continued to make excellent contact with a high single digit SwStk%, resulting in mid-teen strikeout rates. That walk rate is important, because he somehow managed to post a BABIP in the mid-.250 range. It also means he should enjoy a big value boost in OBP leagues.

He once again showed some power, but nothing he hasn’t shown before. Encouraging is a maxEV of 110.3 MPH while still with the Rangers Triple-A affiliate this year, as that is above his high MLB mark. Even just a 10% HR/FB rate makes him a mid-teen home run threat.

Finally, he continues to steal bases, as he had swiped 14 in the minors this year over about a half season’s worth of PAs. Even last year during his disappointing MLB follow-up, he stole 12 bases, making him a 20 steal threat over a full season.

The risk here is that as a lefty, he’d fall into a platoon role. However, he has started both games against left-handed starters since being recalled and his only off day came against a right-handed starter. Batting at the bottom of the order is going to cut into his counting stats, but in deep leagues, he’s a worthy flyer for a touch of power and a bunch of steals.

Jake Alu | WAS 2B

Luis García’s demotion opens up an opportunity at second base and it appear that Alu might be the main beneficiary. The 26-year-old isn’t much of a prospect, ranking just 25th among Nationals prospects heading into the season. But a glance at his minor league history suggests a little bit of this and a little bit of that for deep leaguers to consider.

At Triple-A this year, he cut his strikeout rate significantly, posting a career best mark, supported by his lowest SwStk%, which dipped into single digits for just the second time. That extra contact combines nicely with a BABIP that has never dipped below .313 and has risen as high as .361. He’s been a line drive machine in the minors and has posted low pop-up rates, so he looks to be a legit above average BABIP guy. With the improved strikeout rate, it could result in a positive batting average contribution.

His HR/FB rate shot up during his first tour of Triple-A in 2022, but he lost all his gains this year, as that mark retreated back into the mid-single digits, for his lowest since his Low-A pro debut back in 2019. Surprising, because his 109.1 MPH maxEV isn’t too shabby. So it’s anyone’s guess where his power output went and if we’re looking at a 10 homer guy, or potentially 20 homer guy if he could maintain his strikeout rate gains.

The speed has continued though, as he stole 15 bases in 2022 and was already at 16 in about a half season this year. With the power, that might make him a 10/15 or so guy, with upside depending on where his strikeout rate lands. It’s not sexy, but is more valuable than you think in deeper leagues.