National League Lineup Analysis
As the regular season nears, I’m trying to stay on top of any lineup changes. It’s the National League’s turn to go under the microscope.
Arizona
- The Diamondbacks lineup is in flux with Steven Souza Jr. possibly having a messed up knee. Adam Jones may have stumbled into some full-time reps and possibly Jarrod Dyson if Jones’s defense is subpar.
- Ketel Marte has not been playing in the outfield, so the center field experiment may be over before it even started. The problem is that there aren’t enough infield spots to go around. The biggest issue is that Nick Ahmed has played shortstop in five of the last seven games. Eduardo Escobar seems entrenched at third. So the Wilmer Flores experiment may be over at second base (Marte’s spot) and Flores and Jake Lamb will platoon at first.
Atlanta
- The Braves are still going with a set lineup with Ender Inciarte leading off and Ozzie Albies batting sixth
Chicago
- The Cubs may be working into separate versus lefty and righty lineups. Against righties, Ben Zobrist leads off with Kyle Schwarber fifth, and Albert Almora ninth. Against a lefty, it was Almora leading off, Zobrist batting sixth and Schwarber last.
- Jason Heyward is batting seventh.
- In the last five games, they have batted the pitcher 8th with a cast of characters batting 9th.
Cincinnati
- With the injury to Scooter Gennett, the Reds have move Jose Peraza to second and Jose Iglesias to short.
- The outfield situation is a nightmare right now with Nick Senzel hurt and Matt Kemp playing in the field in four of the last five days. Even Jesse Winker has played center field. Right now, it seems like Kemp, Winker, Yasiel Puig, and Scott Schebler are in a major timeshare situation. For reference, here is how the four have hit in Spring Training.
Name: OPS
Schebler: 1.121
Puig: 1.088
Kemp: .875
Winker: .742
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Colorado
- With the move of Nolan Arenado to the third spot, the Rockies have a set lineup with the exception of Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson equally splitting time at second base.
Los Angeles
- The Dodgers are usually tough to figure out but they’ve used the same lineup against a righty for two straight days with Joc Pederson leading off, A.J. Pollock batting fifth and Cody Bellinger sixth. Against the last lefty, Pollock led off and Joc Pederson sat with Chris Taylor in the outfield. Taylor is going to need those at-bats to maintain any fantasy value after Enrique Hernandez was named the starting second baseman.
Miami
- Does it even really matter?
- In the last two games, Lewis Brinson has been buried in the sixth and seventh spots.
Milwaukee
- I think they are set with Eric Thames filling in for Ryan Braun when Braun needs an off day.
New York
- Brandon Nimmo is leading off with Peter Alonso batting second quite a bit.
- A sneaky value play may be Keon Broxton for steals as he may be locking up the center field spot with a .788 OPS in Spring Training while Juan Lagares is just hitting just a .496 OPS. Broxton’s 20+ steals in 2016 and 2017 might be hard to pass on. Potential Broxton owners will need to keep an eye on the strikeouts. In Spring Training so far, he only has a 28% strikeout rate while his career mark is 37%.
Philadelphia
- The Phillies seems set with the only red flag being where Cesar Hernandez hits. Hopefully, he can stay out of the eighth spot.
Pittsburgh
- The Pirates have set the top spots with Adam Frazier leading off, Starling Marte batting second, Corey Dickerson third, and Josh Bell cleanup. After those four, it’s a mess.
San Diego
- I’ve taken quite a bit of heat by giving Franmil Reyes a 600-plate appearance projection. The Padres have constantly hit him third or fourth. They aren’t going to sit one of their top bats just so worse hitters can play. With Myers also playing fulltime, Manual Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Franchy Cordero will need to fight over the last outfield spot.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has been playing a ton. If Luis Urias or Ian Kinsler are struggling and Tatis gets off to a hot start, Tatis may be in the majors in less than a month.
San Francisco
- I took one for the team and looked at their lineups. /shivers
- The good news is that Brandon Crawford is no longer batting cleanup, Brandon Belt has become the run producer.
St. Louis
- The Cardinals lineup seems set with a possible outfield platoon with Dexter Fowler facing righties and Jose Martinez facing lefties.
- I’m a little worried about Harrison Bader’s stolen base potential since he’s getting slotted in as the seventh or eighth lineup spot.
Washington
- I’m also worried about Turner’s stolen base potential with him batting second. Adam Eaton is an on-base machine and Turner will have Eaton ahead of him on the bases. Maybe I’m over thinking it, but to hit the magical 70 stolen base number, Turner should be leading off.
- Victor Robles has been batting ninth so the Nationals may be hitting the pitcher eighth.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Ozzie will be batting leadoff against LHP
Obviously, parts of this were written in advance. Now that we know that Tatis is in the majors, where do people think he will bat?
With his K/BB ratio I can’t see him near the top half of the lineup. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in the 6-8 spot. But I could be wrong, I was in the group of people that gave about a 0 % chance he would be on the roster right now.
Souza is done for the year…
and maybe forever. That is a catastrophic injury.
At least Schwarber might actually PLAY against LHP. I will probably still sit him anyway. I drafted him only assuming 120 starts and supplementing him with a bench bat.
Lopez is on record as wanting Turner to *attempt* 70 steals not steal 70 bases.
Still less likely at 2 than 1.
1 down. 69 to go.
Nice.
6×6 league with AVG and OBP… who to add for a Util spot in what order… Tatis, Kang, Tyler White, Franmil Reyes, McMahon.
This Padres OF logjam is insane. Can they please trade one if these guys?
Signed,
Renfroe/Cordero Owner
Jeebus… They just added Socrates Brito as well.
It’s a shitty situation when you drafted both their minor leaguers. As a fan, I hope the Indians start hot and trade them an *ace” for an of. Kluber is hammered dogshit so I think starting tatis early is a ploy for Bauer? Baseball is weird.
Sometimes I wonder if you actually pay attention to the mlb or it you are intentionally trying to mislead us.
Matt Kemp bats 3 until he doesn’t. Stop trying to will shit in. Matt Kemp is the 3 hitter. Scooter should move votto (imo) to one but it won’t happen,theyll swap 1&6. Kemp has hit 3 100% of the time vs rhp or lhp w full squad in spring training. Not a joke. 100%. There is no timeshare. Kemp and Puig will always start. I mean what sort of sss do you need to realize Kemp is the 3 hitter? 100%? Welp it’s been 100% of all games! I get all yall love Winker and schebler but this is the real world. The chance either starts over Kemp even vs rhp is non existent. 0.000000000 until I run out of zeros.
Kemp could lose his spot or get hurt but he is as locked in to a spot as anyone in the entire mlb. These articles are like trying to spew an agenda. It’s gross. Let me correct further:
Sd :renfroe odd man out. Stats advanced stats Statcast all say Fran is a top 20 hitter. Oh guess what, he defends better as well.
Pittsburgh: Kang hits 4th otherwise it’s fine
Philly : crazy as it sounds besides opening day Cesar and cutch rotating on handedness
Rockies- McMahon over hampson.
Edit I apologize about how I wrote this but sometimes I feel like you are lying or making an agenda. Matt Kemp bad April is better than Winkers best month. I agree Winker will take his job eventually, but leading as if he can now seems absurd. Zero percent. Kemp gonna be prime trade bait and overall top 20 player start may like every year. Sometimes a pattern isn’t a pattern.
Just FYI, Kemp is sitting on opening day with Winker starting and leading off
But but but there was 000000000% chance!?
Josh Bell is absolutely hitting cleanup for the Pirates; Kang is going to hit sixth. Unless you meant Kang SHOULD be hitting cleanup, but you wrote it as though the article was incorrect.
Not only is Kang going to hit 6th, he is ACTUALLY hitting 6th in the OD lineup
You’re missing a 1 in front of all those 0’s.
This comment was so wrong, so fast. It’s delicious.
I’m not aware of any outfield platoon in St. Louis. For now, Fowler is said to be the full-time starting RF. How long that lasts depends on him.
Lagares is in CF over Broxton today.
Phils:
Pitcher hit 8th today for Phils… and likely will moving forward. (Gabe likes that)
Hernandez hit 7th. Franco 9th (hit HR). Cutch led off, and hit a HR. Cutch and Hernandez probably aren’t swapping places on handedness. (though, with Gabe… who knows?)
I’d suspect Cutch stays near top of order unless he craters.
I like Hernandez in OBP leagues anyway. Should pick up some free walks, batting ahead of pitcher.