Waiver Wire Week 1: 10 SP Targets

Opening Day is around the corner and it’s time to bring back last year’s weekly column as we work to hone our pitching staffs.

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Note: This week alone I will be using Yahoo’s Owned % as Fantasy Pros has yet to update their consolidated ownership rates for 2019.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee Brewers) – This pick, and many others here, are geared more for 12-teamers where it’s in your best interest to chase pitchers that could break the wall of mediocrity and return high replacement value through the season. Burnes is my favorite of the list as he features the best pitch of the bunch – a slider that returned a 47% O-Swing, 47% zone rate, and near 25% swinging-strike last season out of the pen. He brings an above-average heater as well and there’s room for development as his curveball or changeup shift into a serviceable third option. It may take a little longer than others to return six innings of production consistently, though he shouldn’t do serious harm in the meantime. 

Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers) – Some may favor Woodruff over Burnes and they aren’t far off in my book. Woodruff has the better fastball with a touch more deception and movement that will allow him to be an occasional force through the year. The biggest concern lies in his secondary offerings, a slider, and changeup that have yet showcased 15%+ swinging strike rate abilities and have been inconsistent. A current comp of Vince Velasquez is not inviting, though he has the room to grow, specifically in his slider that can put himself a distance from Velasquez.

Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers) – He’s not a sexy name like the other two, though Boyd’s trending velocity to end the 2018 season shouldn’t be ignored entering the year. Bumping his heater from a poor 89.4mph to 91.6mph allowed for a strong 3.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a strikeout per inning in 12 starts from July 20th to September 20th. If he can maintain 91/92 out of the gate, he could set a strong foundation for his fantastic slider (48% zone rate and 16% swinging-strike rate) with room to recover his once formidable changeup.

Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners) – It wasn’t the opening day we hoped for Marco in Japan and it may not get easier as he hosts the Red Sox this weekend, though don’t count Gonzales out for a strong 2019 campaign. The crafty lefty held a 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 16% K-BB rate through his final 21 starts after figuring out his cutter and fastball command. Those numbers include a horrid 8 ER effort as he pitched through a strained neck. It may not be wise to pick him up for a date with Boston, but those looking for some stability through the year should consider Gonzales.

Anibal Sanchez (Washington Nationals) – I wouldn’t call myself the biggest Sanchez fan, though I can’t ignore how his new cutter transformed him into a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP pitcher in 136.2 frames. With that cutter stealing strikes constantly, it allowed Sanchez to have his best career season with his split-change, throwing it in the zone at a career-low 32% mark while inducing swings off the plate at a near 50% rate. The result was a .139 BAA for the deadly pitch and vaulted Sanchez into teams everywhere. There is concern that his cutter can’t replicate its success for another 130+ frames, destroying the house of cards that built Sanchez’s approach, but at this stage, you can ride him until it crumbles.

Under 10% Owned

Pablo Lopez (Miami Marlins) – Lopez has become a hot item over the spring, featuring two ticks increased velocity from his 92mph heater of 2018. Now confirmed for the Marlins rotation, there’s an opportunity for production at a very cheap cost. Lopez showcases strong fastball command while both his curveball and changeup miss bats at a 16% clip. There is room to grow with his breaker particularly as well, suggesting a high ceiling and decent floor for the young Miami arm. It could fizzle in a few weeks if the velocity doesn’t stick, but it’s well worth the gamble.

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – Holland surprised many with an impressive four-month stretch to close the 2018 season, boasting a 2.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate in 19 starts as he averaged just under six frames per game. The difference was a shift on the rubber toward first base, improving his heater and breaking balls as his overall swinging-strike rate rose to 11.5%. It may not be as electric as other names here, but Holland can be a sneaky add, especially when half his games will be played inside Oracle Park.

Jeff Samardzija (San Francisco Giants) – 2018 was a lost year for Shark, dealing with an inflamed shoulder through the year that he admitted was never given the proper time to heal. Now healthy in the spring, a sixth 200 frame season could be in the cards. Pair the volume with a fantastic home park, a strikeout rate above 23%, and a WHIP that sat under 1.20 for two straight healthy years and Samardzija could be a consistent producer for the cost of free.

Caleb Smith (Miami Marlins) – Like Lopez, Smith carries with him a pair of secondary pitches that each break the 15% swinging-strike threshold, while his fastball has the upside to miss bats. He’s a bit rawer than you’d like to trust so early in the season, though there’s clear room for improvement as he gets comfortable in his third season in the bigs. Don’t overlook Smith just because he’s in Miami and another year of a 25% strikeout rate could be on the horizon. Let’s just hope his command keeps the ERA comfortably under 4.00 for this bargain bin Chris Archer.

Kyle Wright (Atlanta Braves) – There’s a lot to love about Wright. He throws 95+ mph with a pair of breaking balls that are sure to miss plenty of bats and it’s all kinds of exciting. There are two problems that may hold him back, however. First, his fastball command needs polish, allowing for moments of bliss to be sandwiched by the abyss. The Braves’ rotation is also more fluid than ideal. Kevin Gausman and Mike Foltynewicz should return quickly, and if Wright doesn’t impress early, he could return to the minors before April is up. Still, his ceiling alone makes for a speculative pickup, even if you may want to sit out his first start against the high-octane Philly offense.