National League Lineup Analysis
I decided to dive into the latest Spring Training lineups to see if any possible trends are emerging. Today, I’ll start with the National League.
Note: I just looked through the lineups and didn’t read up on each team. There is probably a good chance the manager has stated a different plan during the season.
Arizona
- It’s tough to really get a good read on a set lineup but Wilmer Flores, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Steven Souza Jr., David Peralta, and Jake Lamb are in the top-six spots in random order.
- Ildemaro Vargas looks to be the team’s Utility player and is probably relevant in 20-team or deeper leagues with a 10/10/.270 projection if playing a full season.
Atlanta
- Now that Ronald Acuna is cemented into the cleanup spot, the only question is the leadoff hitter with Ender Inciarte and Ozzie Albies battling for the spot. It a big deal to be the winner of this battle. The winner gets the extra plate appearances and has the two to four hitters after him instead of seven to nine. Albies has the better projection (.332 wOBA vs .315 wOBA) but Inciarte has the better spring training stats (.667 OPS vs .631 OPS). I am a little worried about Albies still nursing the effects of an early hit-by-pitch since he hasn’t hit a single extra-base hit this spring.
Chicago
- The Cubs are so tough to figure out during the season, it’s even tougher to figure out their plan in Spring Training. The only four hitters I feel deserve full-time projected plate appearances from their positions are Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras.
Cincinnati
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- The Reds still seem to be working out a set lineup. The only item of interest to me is that when Matt Kemp plays, he has hit third. Kemp might be a streaming option in daily-lineup leagues.
Colorado
- The Rockies seem set with an order of Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Story, David Dahl, and Ian Desmond.
- In the past week, Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon have only played in a game together once. Hampson led off but Blackmon didn’t play. I’m a little worried Hampson will get buried in the 8th or 9th spot and limit his stolen base upside.
Los Angeles
- I didn’t even want to look but I did. It’s as bad as I thought with everyone playing everywhere. The only item I found of interest in Alex Verdugo leading off a couple of times.
Miami
- Curtis Granderson will be leading off.
- Martin Prado has been getting time at first base and hitting in the lineup’s top half. I thought the Prado experience was over.
Milwaukee
- With the resigning of Mike Moustakas, the lineup seems similar to the Brewers playoff roster. The only question will be who replaces Braun when he sits.
New York
- Some spots are set with Robinson Cano batting third and Michael Conforto fourth. Either Jeff McNeil or Brandon Nimmo have been leading off.
- Amed Rosario seems to be buried in the 7th or 8th spot which could really put a damper on his stolen base opportunities (few PA’s) and attempts (pitcher hitting after him).
Philadelphia
- Fantasy owners will need to monitor this one. It’s been just a few games with Bryce Harper in the lineup and J.T. Realmuto hasn’t played in those games. Also, Andrew McCutchen and Cesar Hernandez have taken turns leading off with Odubel Herrera and Jean Segura swapping time in the two hole. The big loser could be Cesar Hernandez getting pushed to the eight spot and see his stolen base shrink (Note: it’s now official, Hernandez is hitting 6th or 7th).
Pittsburgh
- The Pirates lineup has been coming into shape the last few days with the following order: Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli, and Jung Ho Kang.
- I like Cervelli’s value hitting fifth with the extra RBI chances.
San Diego
- It’s a little tough to figure who is going to bat right after the first three spots (Ian Kinsler, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado).
- They have Mejia batting 4th at times which may be from a 1.111 Spring Training OPS.
- Luis Urias, Austin Hedges, and Manuel Margot seem entrenched in the last spots.
San Francisco
- The order of the putrid Giants lineup doesn’t matter. It’s like mixing manure. Brandon Crawford (.713 career OPS) is the likely cleanup hitter.
St. Louis
- The Cardinals seem to have Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna batting somewhere between 2nd and 4th, but the rest seems to be a total mystery. Matt Carpenter missing time complicates the issue even more.
- Tyler O’Neill has been getting some play in the 4th and 5th spot while hitting .191/.309/.553 this spring.
Washington
- The Nats have hit Adam Eaton leadoff and have Victor Robles batting 8th. Batting near the bottom could kill Robles’s stolen base value.
- Also, I’m a little leery of Ryan Zimmerman’s value as Matt Adams has been platooning with him.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
The Braves lead off spot is not a mystery or a competition. It will be a platoon given Albies’s massive splits. Inciarte will lead off against rights, and Albies will lead off against lefties.
Thank you for this, cavebird. This is a great way for everyone to share their local knowledge. Unfortunately, I don’t have anything interesting regarding the Mariners. Only don’t let Ichiro’s early PT fool ya! 🙂
Bud Black is going to face a lot of criticism if he indeed bats Dahl in both the 3rd and 5th slots.
if he gets a hit he can call “ghost runner on 1st” and then go back to the on deck circle.
Hey, if he ain’t cheatin’, he ain’t tryin’.
It’s Colorado’s way of highlighting that they don’t block all of their young talent with old acquired veterans.
Hell yeah, double the PA’s for David Dahl!
Yeah man, I was worried that the Rox would dick him around. Batting him 3rd and 5th? That’s amazeballs!
This is very helpful stuff, thank you. 🙂
So regarding the Padres, Jeff, do you concur with your FG Depth Charts that Reyes has pretty much beaten out Renfroe?
I think so, there was some more info coming out after I wrote it.
How ’bout McMahon vs. Hampson? Even if he’s batting 7th as only the good side of a platoon, McMahon will be worth it to me given his price.
And I won’t have Winker regardless, but I’d think it’s a point of wide interest as to if he is set in the leadoff spot when he does play?
Mostly agreed with the Giants sentiment, but they have been hitting Steven Duggar leadoff most days. He has elite sprint speed, and a solid glove to keep him in the lineup, so if he can hit at all he might have some very deep league value.
I’ve noticed that too, Mookie. But the FG projections portray him as not really a base stealer. And my historical impression of Bochy is that he’s not all that much interested in the running game. Have you seen anything locally that suggests that Bochy may let Duggar run? (and that’s still assuming he hits enough to stay up there)
Duggar said his goal is to steal 30 this year, and he worked a lot with coaches because they noticed his first step on the bases had some wasted movement. I don’t really see anything suggesting Bochy is too aggressive with giving him a green light, just holding out hope that he tries to manufacture some offense on the bases with that abysmal lineup, and maybe Duggar picks up 20+.
Thanks for the info, Mookie.
I’m guessing Murphy replaces Dahl(#3) and not Dahl(#5)?
I guess a couple of things I can share on the Mariners. They are committed to their rebuild, so being on the fringes of contention wouldn’t shake them from that. Dipoto’s just sensibly not selling guys just for the sake of selling them. Might as well instead see if the player can get hot for a couple of months and so goose up his price. Which also means the Mariners have a better chance than the real ‘nuke it all’ teams of stumbling into wild card contention, in which unlikely but somewhat possible case they’ll buy rather than sell.
So if you’re looking at Strickland however many rounds into a draft, I’d say an effective Strickland would probably find himself setting up for some contender come August. But I’d give him a marginally better chance than, say, Boxberger of giving you saves the season around.
Who’s man is this? ^
Nimmo is gonna lead off and with Lowrie out McNeil might hit second and I could see Ramos hitting fourth with Conforto hitting fifth. Rosario probably hits seventh ahead of Lagares or Broxton to start the season and I think he’ll still run a good deal.
Long response. TLDR. Most of it unfortunately makes fantasy baseball players unhappy, since the guys who are losing out are their “targets.”
Braves: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Albies move down the lineup (or even sent down), and Acuna back. Albies struggles at the end of last season, and spring training cannot be overstated. He has been horrible. I see his ADP and think what player are they thinking of? He was on the wire in 3 of my 4 Yahoo leagues with buyins over $100 last year, then this year he is going 56? What world do we live in where a guy who wasn’t rosterable in 12 man leagues last year is going 56 overall? With that said, regarding Acuna the 4 spot is fine. Basically any spot where Freeman isn’t behind him is great(you don’t steal with Freeman batting as you want the 1st baseman to hold you on).
Chicago: I see upside in their pitching with some guys like Hamels and Darvish being underrated, but that lineup is average at best, and most likely quite a bit worse than average.
Cincy: Kemp has been in the 3 hole 100% of the games he has played, even with full squad. He is not the platoon here, he started there every single time vs RHP or LHP. Winker seems to be the big loser here, unfortunately. Kemp also is notorious for starting hot (like crazy hot, down year is a 140 wRC in april). He hasn’t regressed much anywhere except for stolen bases. Puig is going in the 4th round in mpost NFBC’s lately, and another guy who posted the same wRC last year is free?
Colorado: Hampson is most likely the odd man out. McMahon has looked better at the plate, and in the field. For better (for fantasy maybe games most underrated player) or worse (well he sucks IRL) Desmond is at no risk of losing plate appearances. I also think Reynolds finds his way into a lot more at bats than people think somehow, someway. He hit fine last year. He hit amazing (for fantasy) the year before. If you aren’t taking him last pick in a DC you are doing it wrong.
San Diego: The Franimal is locked into his spot. Guys with get plenty of rest this year, but Reyes and Myers will be the constant in the outfield with Franchy possibly starting in the minors. As crazy as it sounds, I’d say it is over a 50% chance Renfroe starts in the minors.
Washington: Robles bats at the bottom of the order until Eaton gets hurt. I think he is a fade at his super elevated adp because you can’t really bat 8th in the NL and have a lot of stolen base value.
Who is this ‘Carter’ fellow, and is he as credible as he sounds? (sounds really darn good)
Albies being sent down… lol. The guy was 21 in the MLB last year, allow him to have some growing pains for crying out loud.
Matt Carpenter will be ready and batting leadoff on Opening Day. Meanwhile, there’s no point in looking at Spring Training batting spots for a 5th outfielder like O’Neill.
I can’t imagine the Rockies want to bat Murphy 5th, so presumably he’s supposed to be in 3rd.
Typos aside, thanks for these Jeff. These are as helpful as anything else on Rotographs IMHO.
Alonso has hit second in the lineup the last week or so and that would split all the lefties.