My 2016 Player Portfolio

If you’ve listened to the podcast or follow me on Twitter, you know I play in a lot of (read: way too many) fantasy leagues. I’ve gotten better in that I haven’t added to the raw count in the last couple of years and I’m under 20. Obviously, you have to get some sort of routine going if you want to have any success in this number of leagues. I have my morning check of the MLB boxscores, then my fantasy boxscores, and then the fantasy news sites. I have three daily transaction leagues, but they’re all on the same site so that’s a one-stop-shop.

Sunday is a little tougher with many of the leagues FAAB bidding coming on that day, but it’s a weekend and in many of the leagues, I will put moves in throughout the week so it’s manageable. Meanwhile, a couple of the leagues have different FAAB days which actually helps so the Sunday workload isn’t so much. And the none of the league was a draft-and-hold with no trading, so I only have to check the lineup there.

I like to keep a spreadsheet of all the players I have and where I have them as it helps cut down the searching when something happens – skills change, injury, demotion/promotion. One of the first things people say when they learn I have so many leagues is “you must have everyone in the league!” It’s not true. At any moment, there are 750 players in the majors. I have a share of 241 players, though that includes minor leaguers, but either way that’s 32%. Let’s acknowledge that not every MLBer is fantasy-relevant and cut it to 500. That’s still only 48%. So I guess you can change your comment to “you must have half the league!”

I guess I can’t really deny that one.

I actively try to get a lot of the same guys across many teams, though. League formats dictate just how much I will do that, but I also play a lot of similar leagues (roto, 12-17 teams). I’m not trying to hedge and make sure I have every good thing that happens. I have the guys I believe in and I will gravitate toward them. This happens more in the mid- and late-tiers. Early on in drafts, you’re at the mercy of your draft slot. But once you push into the double-digit rounds, things really open up, particularly with pitching. We all evaluate pitchers different and so you see a tone of disparity as the draft opens up.

We will start by looking at who I have most and then go by position to look a little deeper. Out of the 14 leagues I’m tracking, 11 are mixed, 2 are AL-only, and 1 is NL-only; 11 are Roto and 3 are H2H. I wound up with eight players five or more times. Expanding to four shares brings 12 more players into the mix. I mention that things open with pitching which can lead to you getting your guys regularly, but I actually have an even 10-10 split between hitters and pitchers among these guys on 4+ teams. Feel free to guess who you’re about to see in this group.

You really should get the top guy.

 

 

One clue.

 

 

It’s not a pitcher.

 

 

You’re going to feel silly if you missed it.

 

 

Here we go:

Did you get it? It was a layup!

In fact, this entire list shouldn’t be all that surprising. I don’t think it’s out of bounds to say I do a pretty good job of practicing what I preach insofar as hyping players. My top three guys really stand out above the pack. I haven’t shut up about Russell, but I just love the talent. His season was overshadowed by the insane rookie class on the rest of his team, let alone the entire league. There’s nothing wrong with a 90 OPS+ in 523 PA as a plus defender up the middle at age-21.

Only 10 2B/SS have even registered 500+ PA at that age since 1990 and three of them were above average: Alex Rodriguez (120), Delino Deshields (116), and Starlin Castro (111). Russell is 4th and tied with Mike Caruso (remember him?) at 90. He zipped through the minors because his glove was ready. With a year under his belt, I expect some strides at the dish while the talent is rich enough that he could also make the leap this year.

Hicks will test the patience of some early on as his playing time is likely to be sporadic, but this is a bet on his talent as much as it is a bet against the age of the starting outfield holding up over the season: Jacoby Ellsbury (32), Brett Gardner (32), and Carlos Beltran (39). Ellsbury and Gardner aren’t ancient by any stretch, but they haven’t been the healthiest guys around, either.

What more do I really need to say about Verlander at this point? He wasn’t elevating the fastball against Pittsburgh and they made him pay dearly. I think his track record – and not just the ace version, but last year’s run – is such that you shouldn’t be asking about dropping him after every bad start. His 2014 season can’t hurt you anymore, get over it.

Votto only being on five teams is definitely a product of the draft slots I got this year. I was regularly in a situation where it was too early to take him with the chance I had and then he never got back. I did kick off my draft season with him, though. In that draft I frequently reference that we do in Arizona the Baseball HQ First Pitch Forums, I took him 15th overall in an NFBC 50-round draft-and-hold. I went Votto/Mookie Betts in that draft and while I don’t regret it, I probably should’ve taken Carlos Correa – something I felt the next day, let alone a week into the season. Yes, Correa went 17th overall. We drafted in early-November.

CATCHER

One of my biggest regrets from the draft season comes out of the gate at catcher: not a single share of Buster Posey. I got trumped a pick or two before multiple times and played chicken (and lost) a few others, hoping to push him to my next pick so I get this pitcher or that outfielder. However, it also shows my plan behind the dish was executed: Posey or punt. When I couldn’t get Posey, I just waited. The OBP factor of my league formats shows here as well. All four guys who I have more than one share of excel in getting on base.

FIRST BASE

Park is only fanning 50% of the time right now, so that’s cool.

With the corner and utility often leaning on first base, I’ve got a pretty wide variety here, but by and large my starting first baseman is really good. And yes, Fielder is 1B-eligible in the league where I got him so that’s not a typo.

Cabrera is the only top-5 first baseman I got, but Jose Abreu is the only one I really wish I would’ve gotten at least once. I’m not a Chris Davis guy and I didn’t really have any chances at Paul Goldschmidt. I have Cabrera ahead of Anthony Rizzo which explains his absence. Going into draft season, I would’ve expected to come out with more Myers stock, but I certainly don’t regret just coming away with two shares. And it’s more because of his surroundings than him.

SECOND BASE

I found second base to very deep and so I didn’t force it with the top three of Altuve, Dee Gordon, and Robinson Cano. I only came away with the one Altuve share because he was a firm first rounder and I was leaning toward Cabrera more often. Plus, these aren’t all re-draft leagues, something I probably should’ve mentioned earlier.

Schoop just once wasn’t by design, but I underestimated how much my leaguemates also liked him and found him consistently going a round earlier than I had him and I had him ranked well above his ADP (I was highest in the 2B ranks, too). The depth at the position left me unwilling to reach on him too often even though I’m a big fan. Maybe I should’ve repeated my five instances of Castro again this year. I still believed, but I couldn’t go quite as hard as last year.

SHORTSTOP

The Tulowitzki shares are interesting. One was drafted last year and it’s a two-year league where we holdover everyone and the other was situation where I thought his price was just entirely too low at $25 in a 17-team league. I was price enforcing, but knowing full well I could get him and I was comfortable with it.

Perhaps my biggest disappointment at any position is the lack of Bogaerts shares. Just one. Maybe it will work since I’m chronically a year early on guys and then I’ll get a bunch of shares next year when he actually breaks out!

THIRD BASE

I had to go back to the well with Rendon this year at the lower price, though I expected him to be cheaper given some of the negativity about him out there. I missed that top tier because they were all in the first round, but I like my diversity here. Sano was not someone I liked coming into the season, but I inherited him on one team where we use real life salaries and he was a 19th-round cost in a keeper league. Remember, my biggest issue with him was the insane cost, but it didn’t impact me in either case here.

 OUTFIELD

What jumps out to me instantly with the outfielders I got is my affinity for guys who have pop and speed. They might favor toward one or the other, but a lot of the guys I invested in more than once at least do a bit of both. The interesting thing about that two-year league I referenced it early is that it kinda forces you to stick to your guns on guys you liked in 2015 which is why I still have a Souza share.

Despite my lean toward power-speed guys, I wasn’t really eyeing him this season. And honestly, I might look to sell out already because I just don’t know that he will accumulate enough HR+SB to counteract the batting average. That anemic Tampa Bay offense around him doesn’t do much for the runs and RBIs totals, either.

Both Trout shares are keeps, I didn’t have any top-3 picks this year. Though I would’ve taken Harper over Trout anyway. The Harper share was purchased in the Tout Wars H2H auction. I did get one share of Clayton Kershaw (Harper-Trout-Kershaw was my top three), but it was a gift as Josh Donaldson was selected fourth with Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt ahead of him leaving Kershaw for me at five.

The Hicks, Kiermaier, Pillar, Herrera, and DeShields might as well be grouped together. Those guys all have a similar profile based on big speed with a modicum of power to support it. I think all four have some upside of on both sides of the scale. Including DeShields might be throwing you a bit after he hit just 2 HR n 492 PA, but consider that it came on a 2% HR/FB and he hits enough flyballs to where regression will push him really close to double-digits and then paired with his speed, he’s a super-charged version of Herrera 2015. I also see power potential in Herrera to where he could become Pillar 2015. And I see potential in Pillar to be Trout 2012!

OK, I’m kidding on that last one. Just seeing if you’re paying attention.

Pillar does have some profile similarities to A.J. Pollock, though. Enough to make it a non-crazy comparison while fully acknowledging that it’d take a 95th percentile kind of performance from Pillar to achieve that. Hell, a 2015 carbon copy atop that lineup instead of in the bottom third would be great, but I do think there’s that tinge of stardom potential so I tried to invest. I wasn’t alone it seems because like Schoop he was kept getting taken out from under me even though I was plenty comfortable jumping his ADP.

I wish I had some Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson shares. Eno and I both spoke glowingly of Polanco on the podcast. I think there is plenty in the tank growth-wise. He could run more, but beyond that I actually think the power s where things could really click. I think he will complete the trifecta of superstar outfielders for the Pirates. I wasn’t super high on Dickerson in my rankings, but I wasn’t really concerned about him leaving Coors. Obviously, you bake in some fallback, but I really see it coming out of the batting average, not the power output. Health is the real concern and I just favored other guys in his area so I got skunked.

STARTING PITCHER

I feel like I’ve given my thoughts on these guys at the top so regularly throughout the offseason and into the early season that I’d rather field questions on guys you want to hear about in the comments. So go ahead and leave your questions and I’ll answer a bunch of ‘em. Or actually, you could save them for the chat at 2 PM Central today, too. Your choice.

While a lot of my multi-share hitters were in the early stages of the draft, almost all of my multi-share pitchers were mid- and late-rounders. And no, I did not wait until Green and Conley beasted out on the same day to put this post up. They just happen to be awesome and decided to deliver us a full day of awesomeness yesterday with Conley kicking off the afternoon and then a night cap with Greene rebounding from a tough first inning to mow down the Pirates.

The obvious regret among pitchers is Noah Syndergaard. He was the last of my #1s and I either always had my guy already or if I didn’t, he wasn’t available because I was actually low on him compared to the market. I just preferred guys like Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Strasburg, and Cole over him. I have six shares of those guys. I preferred Archer, too, but didn’t get any of him. It was more about others I liked as opposed to any dislike of Thor. Even after two starts, I regret that.

RELIEF PITCHER

I’m not shy about investing in top-tier relievers. I understand it’s a volatile market at large, but I feel comfortable with these high end picks. I must’ve been smoking whatever Jeffress had to nab two shares of Rodney, though. I guess Giles is the lone regret and that was in an AL-only. Yikes.

I actually got burned by both late closer moves in the AL. Storen was supposed to be my #2 behind Jansen in the Beat Paul Sporer league, so instead it’s the aforementioned Jeffress and Rodney. It’s not really a regret, but I would’ve liked a share of Tony Zych. Of course, he’s definitely not rostered in all of these leagues, so I could remedy that in short order. We’ll see.

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So there it is, my 2016 fantasy baseball portfolio. Now, to see if I can get Charlotte to maintain it all year with add/drops and trades.