The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 14

Agenda

1. Mets Offense Rant
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Pelf, Odubel, Gentry
5. Factor Grid

1. Mets Offense Rant

So the Mets offense has been very bad. On a runs per game basis, only the Twins have been worse. It might be fair to include the Athletics in the discussion since they’re barely outscoring the Mets with the help of a designated hitter. Does Country Breakfast really count as a DH anymore?

Good teams sometimes fail to hit over an eight game period. There’s a decent chance the Blue Jays will have a similar slump at some point this year. It is worrying to see the issue crop up so early in the year because it could indicate that our projections were wrong.

To be entirely honest, I’ve been blasting the Mets offense all winter long. There’s a certain oily, rancid stench on a few of those hitting projections. In most cases, the numbers smell reasonable, I’d just bet the under. In the case of David Wright in particular, I have trouble seeing more than a win of production at the plate. And that will be more than cancelled out by bad defense.

Remember, our buddy Steamer doesn’t know Wright is hurt. It doesn’t know that he’s going to tweak his spinal stenosis injury a couple times a week. It doesn’t know that he’s going to hemorrhage value every time that happens. And it doesn’t know Wright is either going to land on the disabled list to rest or cost his team a bunch of runs.

Our projections expect the Mets to be a top 10 offense by hitter WAR and a bottom 10 offense by runs scored. The latter is most relevant to fantasy and DFS owners. By all means, use Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey. Be wary of the Mets stack.

2. Daily DFS – Velasquez, Hammel

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The seven game early contest is the place to be today. You want aces? Sure, here’s ill Stephen Strasburg, shaky Chris Archer, floptastic Gerrit Cole, and standard issue Danny Salazar. Check that, Salazar is usually godawfulterribad this time of year.

You don’t have to be a prostitute pay out the nose for pitching today. Jaime Garcia is affordable at home against the Brewers. He wasn’t particularly sharp in his season debut against a lousy Braves offense.

Vincent Velasquez is even cheaper against the hapless (and Happless) Padres. The Friars were nearly shutout for the fifth time in six games. Yep, I’m excluding Coors Field. Velasquez has plus stuff and iffy command. Should be a fun adventure.

In the battle of the terribles, Mat Latos is opposed by the Twins ineffectual offense. Which brand of bad is more…bad? I’m betting against Latos personally. Oh, there’s a Coors game too. That’s separate from the Latos thing.

Stack Targets: Wily Peralta, Matt Cain, Jorge de la Rosa, Drew Pomeranz, Latos

Late: Only five games late. Your options, should you choose to pursue them, are all pretty comparable.

I expect the Blue Jays to do fine against Nate Eovaldi, putting Marcus Stroman in line for a win. If you want bang for you buck, some side of the Raisel Iglesias–Jason Hammel matchup figures to provide the most value. Iglesias could take advantage of a slightly strikeout prone Cubs offense. Hammel should earn a win against the Reds.

There have been a couple days I’ve wanted to use a Yankees stack only to look at their lineup and walk away. Yuck, old people.

And yes, you can totally target Stripling. I don’t give a balls about a seven inning no-hitter. He has swingman’s stuff.

Stack Targets: Robbie Ray, Doug Fister, Ross Stripling

3. SaberSim Observations

I like looking at the SaberSim projections after writing section 2. I need to form my impressions sans influence. Again, I feel vindicated. Besides the obvious (Cole, Archer, Salazar), SaberSim likes Velasquez (#2), Hammel (#4), and Garcia (#5). It also likes Stripling, Pomeranz, and Ray. Count me out on those.

The projections still think Tanner Roark is starting for the Nationals. Check back later if you plan to use Strasburg.

Predictable stack opportunities abound at Coors Field – Rockies and Giants today. The Astros also feature prominently against Ian Kennedy. Four Blue Jays are on page one against Eovaldi.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Pelf, Odubel, Gentry

Pitchers to Start: Did I not just finish ranting about the Mets offense? Here comes Cody Anderson with a beautiful matchup against the stinkers from Flushing. Anderson is a Matt Harvey clone in much the same way that Charlie Morton is a Roy Halladay clone. Anderson is pretty good about limiting hard contact and inducing infield flies. That lets him keep his BABIP below the league average. He hasn’t shown strikeout ability in the majors, but I think he could touch 8.00 K/9…someday.

Also consider: Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson, Wei-Yin Chen

Pitchers to Exploit: When the Tigers signed Mike Pelfrey to a multi-year contract for actual USD, I both snorted and guffawed. Let’s remember certain qualities about Pelfrey – he’s very hittable, he’s sometimes homer prone, he should be a reliever. The Tigers are using him as a start, and his velocity is down three mph from his pseudo-successful 2015.

Also consider: Nate Karns, R.A. Dickey, Rick Porcello, Williams Perez, Martin Perez, Vance Worley, Tommy Milone, Tim Melville, James Shields

Hitters (power): Odubel Herrera is a deceptively decent hitter, and he’ll consistently bat second or third for the Phillies. He’s a very poor man’s Michael Brantley with five category potential. Joe Ross is beatable.

Also consider: Jake Lamb, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Preston Tucker, C.J. Cron, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Howard

Hitters (speed): Craig Gentry appears to be the Angels two-hole when facing lefties. Tomorrow is Tommy Milone day in Minnesota. Do recall that the two-hole has a very different meaning in baseball than everyday life.

Also consider: Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Michael Taylor

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Clean and clear and Just a tad chilly in Chicago

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