Musings on Drafting in the Early Rounds
Missing on an early-round pick is one of the surest ways to ruin your fantasy season. Owners who wound up with Ryan Braun or Joey Votto last season probably had to get creative during the season in order to remain competitive in their leagues. While missing on a pick can be devastating, the first couple rounds of a draft are rarely stressful for the prepared owner. You have an idea of which players will be on the board when you pick, and it’s not too difficult to make a list of the top-20 players in your league. Even if you do that, different strategies may force you to change your mind. So, how do you prepare for the first few rounds of your draft?
First off, every fantasy owner should probably make a list of the top 20-24 players. Rank at least as many players to get you through the first two rounds of your draft. It’s not difficult, and it’s an easy way to just look down and know who you like the most. Make those decisions at the time you write the list and stick with it. You can rank more players, but I find that round three might be an acceptable time to start drafting based on your current needs.
What I mean by that is, during the first two rounds, I generally take the best player available. Maybe that seems obvious, but there are certain owners who will employ different strategies early. Going for position scarcity is always a popular option, and could lead owners to go with a third baseman even though there are some strong first basemen still on the board. As far as early strategies, that’s kind of it. Some owner will take Clayton Kershaw in the first round, and will need to figure out how to adjust after missing out on a hitter, but that’s about the variety you’ll get early.
Now, the reason I tend not to buy into position scarcity is because I don’t like the idea of passing on a better player in favor of a shallower position. If you trust your rankings and projections, you should want to grab the most points you can early, right? That’s why I tend to take a best player available strategy.
This, of course, can lead to issues. I attempted this strategy last year, and found one main issue with it. What do you do when the best player available in both of the first two rounds plays the same position. In other words, you drafted a first baseman in round one, and the best player available in round two is also a first baseman. In leagues that employ a CI spot, this is easier to take, but what about in leagues that only use a UTIL. Is this too early? Is it worth it? Should you just take a player at another position knowing you probably won’t see a big drop-off?
Last year, I took the plunge, and had mixed results. In the first round of my draft, I snagged Edwin Encarnacion with the eighth pick. In the second round, Joey Votto was the highest player on my board. I snapped him up, and immediately filled my UTIL spot. In the end, I won the league, but not because of Votto. So, this was an instance of a good result, but an iffy process.
The truth is, I don’t know if my process was wrong here. And, considering the state of the end of the first round/early second round this season, I can see myself put into the same situation again. Maybe this time Jose Abreu is my first round pick, and someone like Encarnacion or Anthony Rizzo is there in the second round. The scenario could also work at third base depending on how highly you value Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon and Adrian Beltre.
What exactly are the repercussions of this type of move? Well, you’re going to miss out on a strong player at another position. Probably first, third or outfield depending on the highly ranked players this year. First and outfield are generally thought to be positions where you can get value later, so maybe it’s not all that bad. Third base is a completely different situation.
As far as how it impacts your league-mates, that depends. Again, first base is usually fairly deep, so owners probably aren’t going to panic all that much if you grab two early. Third base, though, might send owners into a tizzy. It could force someone to take the next third baseman much higher than normal knowing two elite guys are gone.
Alright, so let’s say things didn’t work out. Maybe your team got off to a slow start, and you need to make a move to stay competitive. You have what should be an elite hitter just taking up your UTIL spot. And while it’s not idea to have to trade your second round pick, I find it’s easier to pick up hitters during the season. This is mainly because hitting is easier to project and more dependable. And since it’s only the UTIL spot, it doesn’t matter what position your free-agent hitter plays. No one wants to be in this situation, but at least you have a piece that can get you enough value to get back into the race.
In the end, I think I would make the move again. It’s a very specific scenario, sure, but I like the potential reward over the risks. It’s generally thought that fantasy owners shouldn’t fill their UTIL spots so early, so I’ll turn it to you, the reader. How do you approach the first two rounds? Do you go best player available, or consider positions? Would you take two players from the same position in the first two rounds? Am I crazy?
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
I’ve never worried about filling my UTIL spot early. Their stats count the same. I’m not sure why I should pass up someone I like more, that I can start every day, for someone I like less… just because they slot into a UTIL spot? I get the counter argument, that I can’t use a hot FA hitter there. Wouldn’t the response be that it’s nice that I’m starting a hitter everyday that is better then a hot FA hitter? I don’t know. I’m just not sure why it matters. BPA in the first few rounds for me.
It might not matter…but I’ve missed out on good values late in drafts simply because I didn’t have an opening for the player in my lineup. Flexibility is a good thing to have!
I like to fill the UTIL slot really, really late, with the assumption that some interesting player will become available in free agency at some point during the season and I want to be able to capitalize.
Won 2 leagues with tulo and Edwin (at 3b) last year as my 1-2 which now makes me a bit slanted towards positional scarcity.
That’s not really a data point in favor of positional scarcity, those were just two of the best players in the game last year.
yeah, that’s why i said slanted, as in biased, as in I shouldn’t feel that way. Thanks Ryan!
I like to take the best players on the board early. At the same time I like to save the UTIL spot for more of the middle rounds. I feel like if I fill it up early, then while I may get a better player I lose flexibility in that position that I value more later on. I guess it’s a trade off you have to decide when to pull.
the only problem with having alot of 1st basemen is i find them difficult to trade since they’re so abundant. maybe take an outfielder for your UTIL spot since he can cover more than 2 spots.
But then you still need a player to fill your UTIL. Why not just have an OF as your best reserve player, and if there’s an injury to one of your starting 5, then you move the reserve OF into the starting lineup and leave UTIL alone? Either way makes no difference, unless of course you’re passing up value in your UTIL spot because you think it makes you more flexible (which in the example I gave, it doesn’t).
UTIL is just so easy to fill with an OF at any point in the draft, or even at any point during the season on the waiver wire. To take two first baseman early, the second guy has to just be WAY better than anything else on the board, IMO.
If I drafted a 1st baseman in the 1st round, there would have to be a significant gap between the top player on my board and the 2nd player for me to double up on a position (except for OF). When I draft two players at the same position, I usually miss out on value later on in the draft because I cannot get a 3rd 1st baseman.
If there’s a UTIL spot, then you can have a third 1B. By the time you get that late into the draft that you’re tempted to take a fourth 1B, what is the difference in value between that 1B and another position, like P or OF? Probably pretty minimal. If you think there will be an absolute ton of bargains at 1B, then maybe you want to set the profit bar a little higher. But if there are tons of profits at 1B that means some other positions are overpriced and you will want to take as few of them as possible. If people are paying a premium for 3B then only take one of them, same for SS.
If I fill it, I am going to do it with Ortiz in the 5th/6th. Then look to pick up an OF with 1B eligibility later once the talent is more even with the likes of Pearce or Trumbo in case of an injury.
I agree. Go with the best available for your top players, whether it’s an auction or draft. I almost always end up with David Ortiz, usually at a $10 discount. People just hate clogging up their UT spot that early, but I have no issue working around it. Occasionally I’ll miss out on a $3 profit later in the draft/auction if it’s at a position I’ve already filled. But by time I have filled all of my 1B/CI/UT/OF spots it’s usually late in the game and the difference in values between players is relatively small. It might suck that I’m taking a $2 SS instead of a $5 1B but I’ll take that (potential) $3 hit in value in exchange for the $10 profit that I got earlier. Not to mention the profit I got by loading up on other 1B/OF sluggers.
The example you gave of a league without CI/MI slots makes it more challenging, and more consideration needs to be given to how much profit should be expected at each position. I still typically find that the best profits are available for 1B/OF at the beginning of the draft and for SS/2B at the end of the draft.
If there’s a spot on my lineup for him, I almost ALWAYS take the Best Player Available and gobble up the extra points. The only exception I’ll make is for Catcher in 2-Catcher leagues. I’ll reach above BPA to grab one solid regular.
In a recent NFBC 15-team league, I didn’t draft 2B, SS, or 3B until 13th round (Aybar, 183rd overall). Unlike Catchers, there will always be enough interesting full-time players at those three positions to accumulate points from in the later rounds.
Josh
@jb82mets
According to leaderboard, 11 players hit 30+ homers last year. Looks like about half are 1B/UTIL. If I could get 2 guys I thought could hit that many homers and not kill my average in first 2 rounds, I would do it without any regard to position. 1B is the least deep it’s been in the past 10 years.
“1B is the least deep it’s been in the past 10 years.”
Couldn’t agree more.
I don’t think there’s any right answer here. My thinking is that whether you get good players in the first couple rounds matters more than what position those players are at. Going 1B/1B didn’t help you last year if one of those was Joey Votto. Going 1B/OF didn’t help you if the OF was Ryan Braun. The variation in projected vs. actual production and the importance of picking players who meet/exceed projections dwarfs the relative impact of draft strategy.
But if there is a right answer, I think I have an idea for how to figure it out. I think you can test draft strategy by drafting with known performances – basically a hypothetical league where every player produces their Steamer projection. Use several techniques for translating projections into dollar values (z-scores, SGP, different positional adjustments, etc.), create a few simple rules for draft strategy, and you could probably get 10-12 distinct approaches to a draft. Run multiple iterations of the mock draft, and see if any kind of pattern emerges.
Actually, that would be a fun experiment/challenge. No sleepers/busts/risks/personal favorites – everybody knows going in what every player will produce, the only questions are whether there’s an optimal way to translate that production into five-category value, an ideal draft strategy, and whether it’s possible to flat-out win a draft with strategy rather than good player projections. Any chance we could talk the RotoGraphs crew into doing a few mock drafts on these rules?
I like this idea. Matthew Berry, for all of his incompetence, did used to do a similar experiment. He had several owners draft against him using statistics from the previous year. The point was to show that even if you know each player’s value exactly, whom you take and when matters.
I completely agree with your observation that what really matters is whether your picks perform. That said, my strategy in the first two rounds is generally to get players at two different positions, typically first base and outfield. I want at least one of those picks to be a high floor guy with little injury history. If I have one of those guys in the first round, I’d be more tempted to take a Tulo or Han-Ram in the second round, especially in a shallow league.
I think I remember Berry doing that, which may subconsciously be where I got the idea. I’d really like to see a full draft like that though, to see how spread out the results are and what strategies work best. Also, to see which expert gets to lord it over his peers and which suffers the ignominy of coming in last place. Come on RotoGraphs, make it happen.
So in a shallow 10 team league without CI/MI, 3 OF and 1 UTL, would you consider focusing more on position scarcity early on? I typically will focus on my SS/2B position late in drafts, likely taking one early and one late, but this year those two positions, in addition to 3B, seem very top heavy. Conversely, OF seems very deep. Looking at some early mock drafts, it looks prudent for my league set up to focus on those three positions very early in the draft.
For example, I could see myself taking one of Goldschmidt/Abreu/Encarnacion in the first round, as they represent the best values (assuming I don’t pick in the top 3). Then within the next three rounds, try to knock out 2B/SS/3B. For example, something like Rendon, Donaldson, Desmond. Then after those first four rounds, start stacking my outfield with the likes of Dickerson, Springer and Marte, who should all be available between the 5th and 7th rounds. Even guys like Soler or Betts, potentially available later in drafts, should be an acceptable 3rd OF, especially when the waiver wire in such a shallow league will be stacked.
In a league that shallow, I’m paying close attention to big tier dropoffs and not worrying about injuries as much. Getting a top catcher, second baseman, and shortstop can be a big advantage in shallow leagues in which replacement level is extremely high.
Personally I’m punting catcher, as I don’t see a huge discrepancy between the third best and the tenth best. I’d rather focus on other positions when Posey is going off the board and just snag a Perez/Gomes/McCann type as the 10th catcher taken. Even a guy like Wieters is worth a gamble.
But yeah, for the first time ever, Im looking at taking both a SS and a 2B early in the first few rounds. Going into last year, OF looked really shallow so I was more concerned with getting a couple elite guys. This year, I see a lot of guys I like that are being taken after the first few rounds.
Best player available. No 1st round pitchers. I probably don’t fill the UTIL spot in the 2nd round if I can help it, but usually there’s a 2nd-best player available who’s still a really really good player so it’s not a big deal.
I’m a big fan of putting a player like Ortiz in UTIL. As others have mentioned, he often slips because of his positional inflexibility. Also since my main league sets lineups daily I am not at all shy about sitting Papi (or any LHB) when the matchup warrants it. Even if I end up with a good player who is “blocked”, I can almost always find a way to build a rotation based on handedness and off days.
I go best player available. If they are close, I’ll weight positional scarcity, injury risk, aging curve, etc.
I’ve typically ended up with two first-tier 1B (not by intent or even in the first two rounds) with some combination of Goldy, Abreu, Rizzo, E5, etc. over the past few years (just some examples, obviously Abreu was not an option before last year) and had the 2nd sit in my UTIL pretty much all year.
I’ve found that it’s hard to move a 1B for a fair return because other positions tend to be so much thinner and the offensive contributions from the top players at other positions don’t match up well, at least in standard 5×5.
Nice job breaking down what many people spend days considering. No matter what you decide upon I think the key is to not be stuck on/in it. Rank your guys, then have plan A, B, C, D, E, F…… I like to have about 4/5 guys per round through rounds 10-12, sometimes deeper. Depending on what you do in the first two three rounds really helps define what to do in those middle rounds. Beyond that you have a ton more production available to you in the 10th round at 1B than you might in any other position, especially if you are looking for middle of the order production. That is just preference as I try to fill the middle of the diamond early.
I think your example strategy of taking another 1B is a winning one in most cases. In the more casual leagues I’ve played in, I always end up with more than one great-to-elite 1B because many teams take just one and move on to all their other positions. Meanwhile, the mid-range 1B’s will sit on the board a bit too long given how valuable they are, and I snap them up.
If your rankings already account for position scarcity, then you should definitely be taking the best player available, unless you have already filled the position / CI / UT. In my auction league I have typically ended up with an elite 1B in my CI slot, because his contribution will be more valuable (over replacement) than whatever 3B/SS etc. I could have bought for the same $.
Since I rate by share of projected league statistics, any positional variation is already adjusted for. As a result, I always take BPA through the first 8 to 10 rounds. After that, I have a target list and will snipe 2 to 3 rounds early to get my chosen guys.
hram tulow and reyes have been injured the last few seasons. reyes hasnt last season but all three have. they are all taken too early. then you have desmond. so really for the whole season one team will have the advantage at SS.
unless the SS is doing top 10 hitter stats he isnt worth it taking the first few picks. like football. people never took TEs until graham gronk did top 10 WRs stats.