More Starting Pitcher Velocity Thoughts
Yesterday I analyzed the ultra small sample size of one outing when discussing four starting pitchers. But that’s kinda okay because fastball velocity stabilizes quickly and instantly provides useful information. Since I don’t know what else one writes about a week and a half into the season, let’s talk about a couple of more names with regards to fastball velocity.
In the preseason, I was teetering on whether Carlos Martinez was the next Carlos Carrasco and on the verge of a major breakout or a deceiving choice for such a label. He seemingly has all the underlying skills, with the strikeout and ground ball rates, along with the mid-90s fastball and devastating curve/slider. But his serious struggles versus lefties left me thinking that he wasn’t there just yet.
Fast forward to a relief outing last week, his 2015 debut, and his fastball velocity was way down. His four-seamer, which sat at 96.7 mph last year, averaged just 92.8 mph. That’s down nearly four miles per hour! And since it was in relief, we couldn’t even use the reliever to starter velocity decline excuse. He made his first start on Sunday and his velocity was somewhat better. His four-seamer was up marginally, but his two-seamer rose from 91.9 mph to 94.4 mph. That’s still down from last year’s 95.5 mph though.
This is concerning of course. And already lefties have posted a .470 wOBA against him. It’s come in just 18 plate appearances, so this is the tiniest of samples. But when the knock against him coming into the year was his inability to get lefties out, and already lefties have battered him, we have a problem. I don’t know what to think anymore, because it seems like at any point, the light bulb could go on and he could dominate. He has such vast upside, I just can’t recommend moving on, even in shallower leagues.
Hahn was a favorite sleeper of many after his strong debut with the Padres last season. I was rather optimistic in my projection as well, forecasting him for much greater success than Steamer did. But he was basically a two-pitch pitcher, with mediocre fastball velocity and just that killer curve ball. Now, however, both his two-seam and four-seam velocities are up, with the former jumping by about a mile and a half and the latter about two. It hasn’t actually led to strikeouts though, as two starts in, he has posted just a 10.2% strikeout rate.
The two-seamer, up nearly two miles per hour, has induced swinging strikes at less than half the rate it did last year! And out of 26 four-seamers has has thrown, he has generated exactly zero swings and misses. Perhaps a less effective curve ball is also affecting his fastball. And vice versa. They likely work in tandem. The risk here is that he relied on that curve and if hitters adjusted, he could be in trouble. With just two walks issued and a 50% ground ball rate, he has still managed to post a good ERA so far. But there is real risk here, and since he threw just 115 innings last season, it’s hard to imagine him exceeding the 150 plateau.
Peavy made his 2015 debut on Sunday after back issues and allowed four runs in just four innings. His fastball, which has steadily declined since peaking in the 92 to 93 mph range, fell below the 90 mph mark for the first time last year. In his first start, he averaged just 88.8 with his four-seamer. As a fly baller, he’s lucky he now calls AT&T Park home, as the home run isn’t going to absolutely kill him. But with down velocity, his strikeout rate could follow, which is going to increase his balls in play, and nearly guarantee he allows more than a homer per nine once again.
His control remains sterling though so he’s not completely useless. And it’s reasonable to believe that if he is fully recovered from his back issues, his velocity rebounds, at least somewhat. I drafted him in the reserve round of my shallow 12-team mixed league and am wondering if he’ll earn any value in this format. He may prove to be merely an NL-Only asset at this point.
No one still owns Lincecum in a fantasy league, right? I included him here because I wanted to just remind you all of what a sad, sad story things have become. Once an absolute delight to watch with excellent velocity and killer secondary pitches, Lincecum has transformed into a completely unrecognizable alternative being. Check out this unfortunate velocity trend:
Yes, his velocity during his first outing barely averaged above 87 mph. EIGHTY SEVEN MILES PER HOUR. TIM LINCECUM! What. The. Heck. Happened. To. You? Seriously, I want to know what happened to him. How did he lose velocity so quickly? It doesn’t seem like normal velocity decline.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Jesse Hahn is not two pitch pircher.
he throw change up 14.7% this season.
Word is that J. Zimmermann’s velo is down. Pounded yesterday. Anything there?
Yep: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&pitch=FA
Granted he wasn’t sharp, but the “pounding” Zimmerman took yesterday had way more to do with his outfielders leaving their sunglasses on the team bus than a drop in velocity.
Outfielder sunglasses or not, the link that Jeff himself provided above is a flashing red light.
The Velo is way down for the last 2 starts — lowest its been in the past 2 years.
So are we trading Jzim or no? What yall think? I put him out there in my 10 year league, got a bunch of bites one is Ian Kinsler straight up…
28 is one of the two common ages where SP’s tend to have some decline, but the bigger cliff is usually ages 31-32. When I took a look at recent trends, the majority of 28 old declines were handled by the top tier pitchers. Power guys though got hammered at their age 31-32 periods. C.C. being the latest example of that. Hence, Zim’s decline doesn’t have to be a game changer for him. We’ll see.
He is also getting to the 3-4 season after TJS where pitcher begin breaking down and may need another surgery:
“The newest cool trend is a second Tommy John surgery. This area is ripe for some research. In the 2013 THT Annual, we found pitchers had about 650 innings between their first and second procedure, though the sample size was miniscule. Recently, I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged 4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we originally found.”
http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-primer-on-tommy-john-surgery-part-one/
My understanding, and I’m sure you’re a lot more familiar with this research than I am Jeff, is that pitchers almost never substantially return from a 2nd Tommy John surgery. Which isn’t to say “player X just had a 2nd Tommy John Surgery, he’s done,” but that its pretty rare for player X at that point to not be done.
Corey – There basically has never been a #3 or better SP who returned to that level of excellence after a 2nd TJS. Admittedly, it’s a small sample. Some have argued for Capuano, who did return and pitched well, but he didn’t quite reach that level even in his best year. There have been a few who pitched well in relief after the second surgery.
Any thoughts on Drew Hutchison and his decreased velo? Popular late round pick with upside as well, and it seems his slider is actually doint okay so far but his fastball is getting pounded
Jays fan here. As far as I know, his velocity was only down in Baltimore and so was Aaron Sanchez’ velocity for that matter.
I’m actually a Jays fan also. I think his velo was a bit down in NY too, just not as drastic a drop as in BAL. I watched his opening day game and wasn’t too impressed with lack of strikeouts. Seemed to get ahead in counts but couldn’t put hitters away, though he did generate a decent amount of weak contact. As a fantasy owner and fan I’m a bit concerned…
Looks like he averaged about 92 in his first start and a shade under 90 in his 2nd start based on his chart.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10732&position=P&pitch=FA
Definitely mildly concerning, but his slider, although it was a career low average velocity, is right in line with it’s average velocity since he changed it late last year.
It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to start off the season with a lower velocity and build as the season progresses. This is partly where the phrase “mid-season form” comes from. It’s still early. I wouldn’t panic.
I’ll add, as a case in point, that lots of writers were a little jumpy at the beginning of the year last season because Teheran’s velocity was down a little. Different pitcher all together, I know, but I’m just making a general point that it doesn’t necessarily mean anything’s wrong.
Aren’t they often still calibrating the guns and pitch f/x stuff early in the season, or are we past that point?
RE: Lincecum
I think this is likely what used to happen to guys who threw way too hard for their size. Before widespread drug usage (particularly HGH which I dont think should be a drug but another argument)
Even Pedro had a relatively short time where he was PEDRO. Though I personally think he was on something. But Dont care because Im in the baseball fan minority that thinks it’s a perfectly logical/normal evolution of professional sports.
Look at what Yordano Ventura’s body is doing to him already and it’s barely a year in the majors. IT could be an oddball thing with him, but smallish pitchers historically fall off dramtically I would expect. Not 100% sure what the numbers bear out there.
There has to be a study done on this no?
A sample size of three means basically nothing. Look at Justin Verlander’s velocity decrease or Ubaldo Jimenez’s or Justin Masterson’s, all of whom are huge. Your bias (not necessarily conscious)is causing you to focus on a cherry picked sample of small pitchers when many pitchers of all sizes experience inexplicable significant velocity loss.
Verlander threw more innings and pitches than any pitcher over a 4 or 5 period. He also would throw 100 and 101 in the 9th inning after using his fastball more efficiently the first 8 innings rarely hitting 98. The first few innings, he’d barely touch 96 if you don’t count his first 2 seasons.
In his last start, Verlander was sharp and hit 95 and 96 a few times. His wildness and regression with his secondary pitches are more important than his fastball just averaging 92.7 mph now. He still goes up in the strikezone to finish off hitters, but a 94 or straight 95 mph pitch is meat compared to a 98 mph high fastball. Jimenez was a fluke pitcher, but most guys lose velocity on their fastball every year. More pitchers are throwing in the upper 90’s than ever before. This is why people are so quick to point to a guy throwing 2 or 3 mph less than he did as a rookie. Maddux, Pedro, Smoltz, Schilling(to a lesser extent and hit 96 or 97 still even after injuries), and others managed. Mussina had his best season in 10 years in his last, and instead of throwing 93-95, could barely hit 90. Guys who rely on heat lose confidence, throw less strikes, and instead of hitting corners and developing or focusing on a pitch that they had killed with or could kill with… they struggle. The best pitchers realize it’s about keeping the ball down, keeping hitters off balance, and always adapt.
Oswalt and Pedro kept throwing hard. Pedro did lose tons of velocity eventually, but Oswalt was throwing 94 mph in his last season occasionally while getting shelled.
Billy Wagner threw 101 early in his career, and threw 97-99 mph consistently in his last season.
Pedro could hit 94 or 95 in his last season with the Red Sox. He was going on 33, but more importantly 12 seasons deep in the league while having been injured 2 or 3 times.
James Paxton’s velocity is down about 1.5 MPH this year too. Anything there to worry about?
Hey Mike one thing to watch for is that it seems Carlos has changed his approach vs lefties this year by throwing his change up more often. He increased his usage from last year from 9% to 28% and looking at the game chart seemed to favor the change up over his slider for lefties. Watching the game it looked like it could be a plus pitch for him as i saw him strike out Votto and Boesch with it. It’ll be interesting to see if it continues as the season goes.
Also TJ House lost 3 MPH on his fastball last start which is concerning. It could help explain why he was roughed up in his last start.
Carlos Martinez’s z-contact rate is a robust 90%.
First year of HGH testing was when? Big contractitis, too much to lose to use?
Just wondering, where is the point where we can be sure that a pitcher’s change in velocity will last through the season and isn’t just an aberration if theres any point at all.
Velocity does fluctuate from start to start and tends to rise throughout the year. I’m not sure if there’s a stabilization point that has ever been calculated like some stats.
Re: Lincecum
I am convinced, without a shred of actual medical evidence of course, that the velocity drop is directly related to the introduction of the slider to his arsenal of pitches. When he was fastball-changeup-curveball from the straight over the top release, he was 92-95 all day. When he started dabbling with the (2009 a little, then a lot in 2010) you start to see the sharp decline. There is plenty of debate about this (http://ble.ac/1GVzFuz), but my feeling is that Lincecum’s mechanics do not lend themselves to the kind of arm/wrist/hand manipulation that needs to happen when you throw a slider/cutter. I wish there was some way to prove this, but given that he is such a high-quality athlete, with a notoriously resilient arm and a pretty clean health record, I can’t see any other reason for what has happened to his velocity.