Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Velocities, Glasnow, Frazier, & May

With the season starting, new useful information will finally become available. Let me know if I can provide any hard to get information in which other analysts aren’t providing. I will continue trying to notice injured players, provide Quick Looks at new/suspect pitchers, give velocity updates, and prospect comparisons. Other writers can provide normal group-think information. Let me know where I can provide that early edge.

The principal shareholder in the Rays, Stuart Sternberg, discussed how finding and developing the new frontiers provides competitive advantages.

Maybe, Sternberg said, it’s by falling behind, taking a lead from companies that follow Starbucks into good locations, copy Apple electronics or make generic drugs.
“I think where the advantage for us is going forward — and it’s going to sound crazy — is to try to allow all, and I will say all, these other organizations to devote enormous resources, and that’s not just money but thinking, brain power and devotion, to things that will have very little payoff, while those resources, brainpower and money might be better spent somewhere else,” he said.

“You build it, you invest all the (research and development), you devote everything you can and like a drug company, I’ll do the generic version for nothing, and I’ll undersell you. And while you’re doing that, I’ll worry about some other stuff over here.

“Everything I’ve seen, it’s an arms race right now, and guys are using elephant guns to kill mosquitoes.”

No matter what the target, the Rays have to find a way to get back ahead.

“There’s always going to be new frontiers,” Bloom said. “If we don’t find them, somebody else will.”

Let me know which frontiers we can explore together.

Velocity update

Fantasy owners can’t take too much information from early season stats besides fastball velocity because it stabilizes quickly. I’ll continue to track changes in velocity and eventually spin (I had issues with getting spin data from yesterday but hope to correct the issue soon) in this spreadsheet a few times a week.

From yesterday, a couple pitchers stuck out.

• Carl Edwards Jr.’s fastball velocity was down almost 2 mph.

The value was lower than any of his 2016 game averages but near his 2015 values.

• Jon Lester’s velocity was down in spring training and it is still not up to his 2016 averages (-0.7 mph).

Twice last year, his average per game average fastball velocity dropped below yesterday’s average (91.3 mph) and he bounced back fine. Continue to monitor his velocity to see how it trends.

Notes

• I finally got around to listening to Carson’s Adam Frazier statement on Frazier winning an NL batting title (6:40 mark). Frazier has some good traits going for him like playing acceptable defense at short or center. Also, he makes good contact. That’s about it.

His biggest hindrances are no power (sub 100 ISO in the minors) and he chases too many pitches out of the strike zone (33% O-swing, 30% is league average). I think he could survive with the limited power but he needs to have an above average eye to get some good pitches to drive. Overall, his hitting profile is similar to that of Alcides Escobar and Ketel Marte.

• A top rated prospect making a team’s initial roster is Tyler Glasnow. For now, Glasnow’s first start is not set yet but it will be interesting to watch. According to MLB.com, he has three above average pitches but below-average control and command.

The comparables contain some good names but no one great and quite a few disappointments. Also, his Control is probably worse than the 45 grade, probably closer to a 35 grade with BB/9 rates all over 5.0 at AA, AAA, and the majors last year. He’s able to get 9+ K/9, but the walk rate is a value destroyer. In most leagues, he is just a streaming option until the walks drop.

• Jacob May will be the White Sox starting center fielder. Examining May’s profile, he’s a poor man’s Adam Frazier. May is a small, weak hitter with below average plate discipline. Current projections don’t even have his OBP to be north of .300. If he does get on base, he could provide some steals with his 70 speed. Here are some previous prospects who were considered all speed and no power.

The most encouraging comp is Trea Turner with Jose Peraza second. I think it will be tough for the 25-year-old May to double is power late in his career but he could.

• Zack Wheeler will be on an unknown innings limit for 2017.

Wheeler will have an innings limit. But despite a widely-reported range of roughly 120 innings, Ricco said there has been no hard and fast ceiling that has been implemented.

“There’s going to be some number but we don’t exactly know what that is,” Ricco said, noting that there is no science behind such limits, and that Wheeler has already reached 185 1⁄3 innings in 2014.

Ricco also raised the possibility of doctors re-evaluating Wheeler’s workload cap as the season progresses. Still, some kind of limit is in place, and the logistics of managing it is a consideration for the Mets.

• I am not sure what to do with Jesus Aguilar. While Eric Thames has struggled since returning, Aguilar has thrived after the Indians waived him. The 26-year-old hit 30 home runs in AAA last year and displayed decent plate discipline. With the Brewers probably not contending, they will likely give Thames every chance to succeed especially after just signing him to a 3-year, $16M deal. Aguilar has an intriguing bat with no path to a full-time job yet.