Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Stephenson, Buxton, & More

Note: Some of these notes were written before the games were played on Tuesday, so the stats may be a day old.

Quick Looks: Robert Stephenson

The 23-year-old Stephenson’s star has fallen a little bit since the start of the season. Here is how MLB.com and Baseball America graded him out to start the season.

Baseball American had him graded out quite a bit higher with his curve and change being borderline elite pitches. MLB.com on the other hand graded his fastball higher.

The one aspect both publications could agree on is his lack of control. His inability to find the plate can be seen in his 4.0 BB/9 or greater since he has been promoted to Double-A.

I watched his start on the Aug. 5 versus the Mets and here are my thoughts.

• The fastball was between 93-96 mph. Most of the time it was straight, but did show some cut action. Besides the speed, this pitch is very blah.
• His curve was between 80-83 mph with 12-6 break. At times he could throw it for strikes.
• His change was 84-86 and really inconsistent. Sometimes it was straight as an arrow. Other times it had a nice 12-6 break. Even other times it bounced in front of the plate. This inconsistency can be seen in a 20% Zone% on the season. Hitters will soon find they can just let this pitch pass.
• While I mentioned specifically that his change was going to be inconsistent, he lacked command on all his pitches.

Overall, I am not sure how to put a value on him, but I am leaning towards the MLB.com grades. He could gain some consistency and really improve or he could be frustrating for years to come. Right now, I would take the chance on him late in next year’s draft in case he figures it out, but right now I would invest little resources in him in a standard league.

Notes:

• Kevin Gausman has been getting some second half love with his first half ERA at 4.15 and his second half at 2.73 (3.58 on the season). Looking over his stats, the biggest difference is his LOB% going from 78% to 88% mainly from an HR/9 dropping from 1.6 to 1.2. He seemed to be unlucky in the first half and little lucky in the second half. I think his starter ERA talent probably around 3.75.

• Byron Buxton is having a hot call up by hitting .455/.478/1.000 in six games. The key for his turnaround has been an improved contact rate. Before September, his Contact% was at 69% and a 37% K% to go with it. Since his latest call-up, his Contact% is at 84% and his K% has dropped to 15%. With Buxton’s speed and athleticism, he can be a productive player if he can just maintain making contact. Keep an eye on his improved plate discipline and see if he continues to keep it up for the rest of the month to help set a value on him next season.

• A call up I will be keeping my eyes on is the Mets’ Gavin Cecchini. The 22-year-old shortstop has a great eye which can limit strikes, takes walks, and has the potential for a .300+ AVG. The two check marks against him are his latest production as come in offensive happy Las Vegas. The other knock is his lack of power (only a .123 ISO in the PCL). I think pitchers are really going to challenge him and see if he can make them pay. If he can answer the challenge, pick him up. Otherwise, stay away. Once he gets a few games under his belt, I will go back and look at his at-bats to see his approach.

• A pitcher to monitor is David Paulino who will start for the Astros on Thursday. He isn’t the highest ranked prospect, but he is interesting enough to catch a few innings to see how he performs.

• Another interesting name to get called up is Hunter Dozier. Generally, he has been seen as an underperforming prospect mainly based on contact issues and sub-par power for a corner infielder. The 24-year-old has had a great 2016 season between Double-A and Triple-A with 23 total home runs and a .300 AVG. He has been playing third base, but right now the Royals are loaded at the position with Cheslor Cuthbert and Mike Moustakas. I wouldn’t be surprised to one of them moved to DH or traded.

• Alex Cobb made his 2016 debut after sitting out 2015 and most of 2016 after having Tommy John surgery. Don’t use his Pitchf/x numbers from here at FanGraphs to gauge his start. We use the classifications directly from MLB, and they are currently way off for him. Brooksbaseball.net reclassified his pitches into a sinker, split-finger, and curve. They had his sinker down 1.3 mph with his split-finger fastball down 1.9 mph compared to 2014. All his pitches have a great sink, so he will likely still get a good number of ground balls which can help limit the damage. It would be nice to see his fastball velocity back up, but maybe that was the reason it took him so long during his rehab. Hopefully, he can get a few more starts in this season and a better idea of his talent level can be revealed.