Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Rizzo & Davis

2017 Projection: Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo has been an extremely consistent the past three season almost to the point of being eery.

This type of consistency makes creating his projections easy. Except his 2016 projection didn’t seem easy with Rizzo swiping 17 bags out of know where. In his four previous seasons, he only stole a combined 16 bases. Does he keep the numbers going forward or will he go back to his old ways. The key when seeing an unexpected stolen base jump it to basically ignore it.

Here are some the numbers behind such jumps. In all, 16 under 30-years-old players have had a season with double-digit stolen bases which were higher than the three previous seasons combined. They would see an average drop in stolen bases by seven or to about 60% of the previous level in the following season.

A reasonable drop was expected and Rizzo’s stolen bases dropped even beyond these expectations. Truthfully, I think I would just use his 2016 line as a starting point. Maybe regress his batting average some.

Projection: 670 PA, 94 Runs, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 3 SB, .285 AVG, .385 OBP

2017 Projection: Chris Davis

Chris Davis had a disappointing 2016 season with a BABIP driven drop in batting average (.262 to .221). Additionally, his power was down with ISO going from .300 to .239, his Hard Hit% was down 1.4% points, and his HR/FB dropped from 29% to 25%. The drop in power caused his home runs to drop from 47 in 2015 to 38 in 2016. All of these declines occurred in his age-30 season, so maybe age is catching up with him, but maybe not.

Throughout nearly the entire season, he dealt with a hand injury.

Chris Davis is frustrated by his lingering left hand injury that has been bothering him since April, but it is not going to hold him out of the Orioles’ postseason push.

“It’s been an issue all year,” Davis said before homering in Saturday’s 11-3 win over the Tigers. “It’s not going to get any better until I have time to rest, and I’m obviously not going to rest right now with what’s at hand.”
…
“Swinging a bat is painful,” Davis said. “I went 0-for-3 [on Friday] and I had two days off before that, so I don’t think it made a whole lot of difference.”

There is about zero chance the injury wasn’t affecting his play. The key for his 2016 value, is to determine how much to bump up his value over the projections if he is healed. I think at least a .250 AVG and 40+ home runs are within reach. With these values, I will probably be the highest bidder for him. He might be a second round value to be grabbed in the 4th round.

Projection: 650 PA, 100 Runs, 42 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB, .250 AVG, .350 OBP

Notes

• The Phillies have released an injury update on Aaron Nola and Mark Appel.

Nola and Appel have been recovering from injuries this fall in Clearwater, Fla. Nola suffered what the Phillies called a low-grade sprain of his right UCL and a low-grade strain of his flexor pronator tendon in August. He had a PRP injection shortly thereafter. Appel had surgery to remove a bone spur in his right elbow in June.

Phillies player development director Joe Jordan said both pitchers have been progressing in Florida, and if everything goes well, they will finish their work in the next few weeks and head home for the offseason, where they will begin preparing for Spring Training.
If healthy, Nola is a lock to make the Opening Day roster. Appel seems likely to open the season in Triple-A, considering how much time he has missed.

I am interested in both of the pitchers for 2017. Nola was having a decent season (>9 K/9) even though his ERA was nearly 5.00. His ERA estimators were all in the low 3’s. As for Appel, he had OK triple-A strikeout numbers (~8.0 K/9) but gave up too many walks. If he can decrease the number of walks, he will be a nice late play in deeper leagues.

• John Lamb with miss the start of the 2017 season after having back surgery.