Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Price and Gray

David Price is visiting every renowned elbow surgeon in the country getting an opinion on his elbow. Currently, the news has improved from definite Tommy John surgery to maybe not.

Price will receive opinions from both Andrews and ElAttrache in Indianapolis tomorrow, tweets Britton. (The renowned surgeons are both there for this week’s NFL combine.) Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets that Farrell said the initial MRI revealed some swelling and fluid buildup but offered “inconclusive” results overall. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Price himself is optimistic that the injury isn’t serious.

Price’s injury is this year’s second reminder (Alex Reyes) of the fragile nature of pitchers. I believe experienced owners don’t pay for pitchers because they lost a high-priced arm in the past. The memory is too strong and they don’t want to experience the situation again. A pitcher’s price must be discounted enough so the owner can stomach a lost season.

The pitcher who burnt me was the Diamondbacks Brandon Webb in 2009. I got only one horrible start out of my first round pick. I pretty much ignored pitching in the first few round until I notice everyone else doing it a few years later. One season, I picked up an insane starting staff in an industry league as I was buying pitchers 65 cents on the dollar. Some owners still don’t like to pay for pitching.

One approach I’ve seen to counter the big loss is to grab a couple second-tier starters to help offset an injury loss. This approach works if the pitchers are acquired at a discount. A $40 pitcher bought at $35 is still more valuable than a two $20 pitchers at $20. Besides the $5 saved, the odds of one of the two pitchers getting hurt is twice as much. Maybe this loss limiting move makes other owners feel more comfortable but I am in it to win. I’ll hope my $40 guy holds up and will use the $5 saved elsewhere on my team.

I’m to the point where I think the discounts given to top end starters may be one of the biggest discounts in the fantasy game. Last year in Tout Wars, I rode Jose Fernandez and Max Scherzer to a league title. Even though I didn’t have a bunch to spend on back end of staff, I got each at a $10 discount according to my auction values (K/9 vs K’s was the difference). Nowhere else was I going to make up $20.

In Phoenix this weekend, the top experts participate in the LABR auctions. I am really interested to see the final bids for the top pitchers. I wonder if Price’s injury will still be fresh in their minds and owners will be hesitant to send on the top arms. We will soon find out.

Spring Training Fastball Velocity

I have continued to update my spring training fastball velocity spreadsheet. One pitcher whose velocity spiked is Sonny Gray’s.

Updated my spring training velos

Sonny Gray at 94.5. Sat 92.5 last year but was also 94.5 in his last starthttps://t.co/mJFaJO6vHC pic.twitter.com/kDbOb1RTlc

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 2, 2017

I would be all in on Gray at this point but the Athletics defense is horrible. I combed through our preseason defensive projections and here’s how all the team defenses stack up.

 

Note: Z-score is the number of deviation from the mean a team ranks.

We project the Athletics to have the league’s worst defense. I just wrote about the subject at Rotowire.com ($$). To sum up the article, team defense matters a ton to a pitcher BABIP and BABIP drives both WHIP and ERA.

While I expect Gray to improve in 2017, I’m not sure how much of a gain can be projected with such a horrible defense behind him.

Notes

• I agree with Grant Brisbee (McCovery Chronicles) take on Ty Blach vs. Matt Cain for the Giants fifth rotation spot.

So far this spring? Matt Cain has not done that. On Thursday, he did the exact opposite of that, looking even worse than he did last season. That’s fine. It’s early.

But it doesn’t help that in the same game, Ty Blach looked like someone ready to flummox major league hitters. He struck out a pair in two perfect innings, and he wasn’t missing a lot of his targets.

Blach seems to be a must own in 15-team or deeper leagues. There is a chance Cain starts as the fifth start but he isno longer an effective pitcher. Besides Cain faltering, another pitcher will likely head to the DL at some point and Blach another opportunity to step in.

Blach is an extreme groundball pitcher (58% in 2016) with good control and below average strikeouts. He’s also 26, so he’s not a highly regarded prospect so he should be obtained cheaply.

• I predict Jung Ho Kang’s stock to jump a bit now that owners know he won’t spend time in Korean jail for drunk driving. As I documented recently, our own Nathaniel Grow expects MLB to suspend him. If action is taken, it will be the first time a player has been suspended for a DUI so the players union will likely fight the suspension. So if he has to eventually serve an MLB suspension, it will likely happen during the season. A chance also exists that the team will punish him for his actions.

• David Wright’s return to third base never got on track. Jose Reyes will be the Mets starting third baseman until Wright finally gives up trying to heal and retires.

• An under the radar pick (#683 in NFBC) is Rubby de la Rosa and he is finally feeling healthy.

De La Rosa missed most of 2016 with elbow issues and in an attempt to avoid having a second Tommy John surgery he has twice undergone stem-cell treatment.

“It feels 100 percent right now,” De La Rosa said. “No soreness, no tightness. I think it’s good.”

Until he got hurt in 2016, his production was acceptable with a 4.15 ERA and a 9.25 K/9. He may start the season on the DL so he can be a stashed there until he gets healthy.

• Aaron Nola made his return to the mound with a small velocity uptick.

Nola done after throwing his two scheduled innings. His line: 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 K, 0 BB on 30 pitches (16 strikes). Sat 92-94 mph #Phillies

— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) March 2, 2017

Two videos to enjoy this Friday

First, Luis Guillorme snatches a bat out of the air in the most badass way possible and keeps his cool the whole time.

And now onto the “I think I am a badass but now look like an idiot” portion, Jorge Mateo bat flips a warning track flyball.