Mining the News (9/14/23)

• An article by The Athletic covers a breakout player on every team. Give the entire piece a read-through since I can’t highlight all the comments.

• Korea’s Jung-hoo Lee 이정후 is expected to sign with a major league club this offseason.

Kim and Jung-hoo Lee, who is expected to be posted by the Heroes this offseason, belong to a different group of players.

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It remains to be seen whether Kim stays an outlier or represents the beginning of a new pipeline. Lee, his close friend and the 2022 KBO MVP, could be next, and Kim has spoken openly about his interest in a reunion. San Diego, not coincidentally, is viewed as a strong candidate to sign the outfielder.

American League

Orioles

• Kyle Bradish has continued to feature his sinker more and his four-seamer less.

Bradish threw his two fastballs — a four-seamer and sinker — 48.9% of the time last season. This year, he’s cut the four-seamer usage nearly in half and cranked up the sinker usage while throwing both fastballs 43.5% of the time. It was a big move for Bradish, whose four-seam fastball has allowed a .566 SLG against in his career while his sinker has produced a .368 SLG.

It was a necessary change for Bradish, whose four-seamer has natural cutting action and roughly average velocity in today’s game. A 94.5 mph fastball with cutting action and below-average drop needed a complementary fastball — or a replacement one. His reliance on the sinker has increased over the year; he has thrown it more than his four-seamer in each of the last two months.

Time Frame: FF Usage, SI Usage
2022: 45%, 4%
2023
Apr: 38%, 13%
May: 29%, 16%
Jun: 20%, 20%
Jul: 22%, 19%
Aug: 16%, 25%
Sep: 22%, 24%

As for the pitch results, the sinker has a 6% SwStr% and 60% GB%. His four-seamer is at the same 6% SwStr% but just a 43% GB%.

Red Sox

• Ceddanne Rafaela could be demoted when Pablo Reyes returns from the IL.

Rafaela said he’s trying to take the same thing out of this experience. Sure, he savors the days when his name is in the lineup, and he hopes to see his name in the lineup again at some point — Cora said it’s possible he’ll get a start at second base — but with Pablo Reyes nearing a return from the injured list, it’s possible Rafaela will be sent back to Triple A in the coming days. For now, he sees an opportunity to help — in whatever way — the Red Sox hang on to their slim playoff hopes. Is he being wasted on the bench?

Royals

• Alec Marsh has added a new slider and sinker.

With the help of pitching coach Brian Sweeney and assistant pitching coach Zach Bove, Marsh tinkered with the grip on his slider to get more sweep. Marsh used it a lot Wednesday, keeping the White Sox off balance — they whiffed eight times on 17 swings (47%) on the pitch.

He’s also added a sinker to get more ground balls, which has helped his four-seam get more whiffs. Each month Marsh has been in the Majors, his swing-and-miss has improved.

“It’s sharper stuff that’s harder,” Marsh said. “That sinker is something that’s a weapon now. … Adding new pitches and changing grips is not easy, but to see it come together and hopefully finish the season off strong and on a good note is something I really want to do.”

The Whiff% on the new sweeper is 48% while his old slider was 37%. The sinker hasn’t missed a bat yet in 42 pitches but has a 67% GB%. The issue holding him back remains the walks and he’s done nothing to curb them.

Month: BB%
Jun: 18%
Jul: 12%
Aug: 11%
Sep: 12%

He’s rocking a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for a reason.

Tigers

• Joey Wentz doesn’t like the shape or control of his fastball.

A look at the metrics show some difference there. Wentz’s fastball has gained a mile per hour from last year, up to 93.5 mph on average, with a similar movement profile and a slightly higher swing-and-miss rate. But after opponents hit just .209 off his fastball last year, they’re hitting .362 with 11 home runs and a 58.3 percent hard-hit rate off it this season according to Statcast. His cutter has also been less effective, with opponents batting .269 against it with a lower whiff rate than last year (29 percent, down from 38.9 percent).

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“I think that it has to do with some shape stuff with the fastball,” Wentz said. “But I think also if the shape’s not going to be there, you have to get it on the edges, and I haven’t really done that either. There’s a couple details with the fastball that’s making it easier to hit.”

Twins

• Bailey Ober is effectively done at the major league level.

Bailey Ober pitched Saturday night for the first time since being demoted to Triple-A St. Paul on Aug. 28. He threw 65 pitches and allowed one run over five innings, striking out three and walking none. Ober is way past his previous career-high innings count and showed pre-demotion signs of wearing down, so the goal now is to finish the season healthy and throwing effectively.

It’s possible he’ll make a start or two for the Twins down the stretch, and there’s a slimmer chance he could be on the playoff roster, especially if they get past the first round, but Ober is no longer being counted on as a 2023 contributor. They are looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, and trying to get their good 28-year-old mid-rotation starter to avoid hitting the proverbial wall near 100 innings again.

White Sox

• Lenyn Sosa is getting some reps at third base.

“It hasn’t been a good season. We had high expectations coming in. So we flipped our focus to making sure we see what we need to see and at the same time competing.”

Flipping that script meant getting a look at second baseman Lenyn Sosa playing third base in the series finale against the Tigers.

It’s interesting to see Sosa as third (six games so far) with Yoán Moncada on the team.

National League

Cardinals

• Miles Mikolas wants to revamp his arsenal this offseason.

Miles Mikolas, one of two starters under contract for 2024 after he signed a two-year, $40 million extension during Spring Training, will need that extra time in the offseason for all the work he plans to do while reevaluating and revamping his pitching plan going forward.

Something has been off all season, as Mikolas pointed out on Sunday following the Cardinals’ 7-1 loss to the Reds at Great American Ball Park, and he’s had more issues than he’s had answers. On one hand, he’s been a model of durability again for a Cardinals staff in need of consistency, but on the other, his numbers point to signs of trouble. His whiff rate is in the bottom 1 percentile in MLB, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 19 percent last season to 15.6 percent this season. He’s seen a jump in his hard-hit rate (from 36 percent last season to 41.9 percent this season), while his ground-ball rate has plunged (45.9 percent last season to 38.6 percent this season).

Hence, Mikolas’ plan to go to work on his arsenal this offseason.

• Over the winter, Nolan Gorman worked on hitting “elevated pitches”.

However, following a winter of work on better understanding how to get to elevated pitches, Gorman responded in a big way. After a recent homer binge where he hit three long balls in a two-game stretch, he leads the Cardinals in homers with 27. Also, he’s had five multi-homer games. Gorman’s done all that in just 119 games. Taking care of his balky back could allow him to play more and likely smash more long balls.

Here are his ISO per batted ball heatmaps for 2022 and this season.

The difference is obvious.

Cubs

• The team will allow Pete Crow-Armstrong to struggle at the plate as long as he can handle center field.

The Cubs similarly believe they can carry Crow-Armstrong while he adjusts to major-league pitching because his potential Gold Glove defense in center field will give him a long runway to figure things out.

• The team expects to find extra velocity in their pitchers but not command.

The Cubs have proven they can tease more velocity out of pitchers. Assad is a prime example of a pitcher who seemed like a 4A player when he sat in the upper 80s, but put in the work necessary to now have a fastball that hovers around 93 mph. It’s much harder to take a pitcher with stuff and then teach them command.

Marlins

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. is only working on hitting lefties.

“I feel like just because we’ve been working every day,” said Chisholm, who had been hitting .199 in his career against southpaws. “Skip came to me one day and he was like, ‘You’re not bad against lefties. You’ve just got to work on it.’ I don’t really strike out against lefties. I just roll over a lot and hit a lot of ground balls right at the infielders. We’ve just been working on it for like two weeks straight. I don’t even think about right-handed pitchers when I’m working in the cage anymore. Everything is pure lefty. Everything we do is lefty sliders, lefty curveballs, lefty sinkers. Nothing else. We’re just working straight lefties right now, because he told me he needs me in the game. He needs me out there in center field, and I need to hit lefties.”

• Xavier Edwards is keeping up his option of playing shortstop next season with Chisholm moving back to second base.

Before being recalled on Sept. 1, Miami’s No. 4 prospect Xavier Edwards had been getting early work in at shortstop. That has continued on a daily basis since rejoining the big league club, but come first pitch, he has started seven of the club’s last nine games at second base.

“You’re not going to see it this year, but I think it’s good for him and good for us to know if he can do it for next year and for his career,” manager Skip Schumaker said of Edwards at short. “If you can play shortstop, you’ll be here for 10 years. That’s the reality of it. You see guys around the league that keep finding jobs because they can play shortstop.”

With Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, and Garrett Hampson paying at shortstop, it should not be hard for Edwards to perform better than the uninspiring trio.

Even more intriguing is the plan to move Chisholm out of center field. I can understand the desire to do so with his constant injuries. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious in-team minor-league replacement for center field. Victor Mesa Jr.?

Padres

• Manny Machado has dealt with tennis elbow for the past two seasons and will likely need surgery …

That, of course, is not a tenable way to go about things. Machado has been hampered by tennis elbow for parts of the past two seasons. It has gotten significantly worse over the past month, as Machado has been relegated to duty as the designated hitter.

Could surgery be awaiting Machado in the offseason? He was asked that question directly following Monday’s game, and responded thusly:

“Probably. It’s a consideration. We’re looking at all avenues and seeing what we can do to try to get this fixed and get it better.”

Machado didn’t get into specifics about a potential operation. It’s too early to say, and his focus is presently on the remainder of the 2023 season. But tennis elbow — or lateral epicondylitis — is an injury unrelated to the ulnar collateral ligament. Any procedure would likely come with a significantly quicker recovery time than Tommy John surgery.

… and won’t have it until the season is over.

That much seems to be evident in the Padres’ plight and Machado’s decision-making. San Diego sits well outside the playoff picture, alive only mathematically. If Machado feared that surgery would linger into 2024, there would be little reason to delay it.

Instead, Machado stubbornly insists on playing, despite a season in which the Padres appear destined to fall well short of their lofty goals.

“We’re professionals,” Machado said. “… I’m an athlete. We train for this all year, and whenever you’re in this position, you just go out there and compete, no matter what it is.”

Phillies

• The team is going back to a five-man rotation.

That’s why, as the Phillies start to think ahead, they could make a change that addresses a current need and could help later in October. They planned to go back to a five-man rotation after Monday’s doubleheader. That means either Cristopher Sánchez or Michael Lorenzen would be in the bullpen. Thomson said they haven’t decided yet.

“Not 100 percent,” he said.

But the six-man rotation is over, right?

“Umm, I would think so,” Thomson said. “But that’s not 100 percent either. But I would think so. It all depends on how guys feel and how they come out of this. How Sanchy comes out of his start (Wednesday).”

Pirates

• Joshua Palacios is learning to lift the ball.

Remember the zero homers in 2022? Well, Palacios actually had no homers across his first 119 plate appearances until he went deep on June 2 vs. the Cardinals. Now, he’s hit eight in his past 188 plate appearances, including a Statcast-projected 410-foot drive into the bullpen in the second inning at PNC Park.

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Palacios credits his coaches on the Pirates for a lot of his success, as he feels they’ve been able to unlock the right bat path he needs to get baseball airborne.

“I’ve always hit the ball really hard, but I hit it on the ground,” Palacios said. “So [the coaches] were just helping me get the ball in the air the right way, not lifting the ball. Since I’ve been doing that, I’ve been hitting the ball hard just like I was before, but it’s just been going in the air and now it’s getting out of the park.”

“I think we’ve seen when he gets the barrel of the bat out and gets the ball to pull side in the air, it will go,” manager Derek Shelton said.

He has been slowly raising his attack angle and lowering his groundball rate.

Month:
May: 8%, 65%
Jun: 6%, 47%
Jul: 4%, 48%
Aug: 10%, 50%
Sep: 14%, 38%

• Quinn Priester added velocity by throwing harder.

During his first stint with the Pirates, by contrast, Priester’s average sinker was 93.8 mph, while his average four-seamer was 92.9 mph. That jump isn’t insignificant. To provide more context, Priester threw 272 fastballs — 171 sinkers and 101 four-seamers — in his first six Major League outings. Of those 272 fastballs, only five touched at least 95 mph, and only one touched 96 mph.

Priester’s velocity drop this season was odd given he sat in the mid-90s with his fastball as he rose through the Minors with an ability to touch the upper-90s. On Thursday, Priester credited his uptick in velocity to a willingness to “just [screw] it and stop thinking so much.” General manager Ben Cherington said he’s been encouraged by Priester’s development as well.