Mining the News (1/10/24)

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Athletics

Esteury Ruiz is working on getting to more power with his swing.

While Ruiz does not profile as a power hitter, nor do the A’s expect him to morph into one, they do believe there is a way to fine-tune his swing in order to unlock better contact. Those efforts have already gotten underway this offseason.

“I think the biggest thing, we can clean his mechanics up offensively,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay said. “I think we can open up some more power for him and some bat speed, and we’re excited about that. It takes the player to engage and want to make those changes, and I think he does want to make those changes.

“It’s going to be a process that he’s got to go through, but we’ve identified the things that we feel can open him up and make him even more of an impact player. He’s impactful when he gets on base, but our goal is to increase that by providing some power behind that swing as well.”

Blue Jays

Kevin Kiermaier wants to hit for more power.

One thing to watch for? Kiermaier wants to hit for more power, flipping the script after he joked one year ago that his goal was to hit zero home runs and be the best No. 9 hitter in baseball. He believes — and you can see the belief is earnest — that he has another level to unlock.

“I’m as motivated as I’ve ever been right now,” Kiermaier said, leaning in to the camera. “I can never sit still. I’ve got this fire in me.”

Guardians

• With the addition of Rule 5 pick Deyvison De Los Santos, there is a chance Kyle Manzardo will start the season in the minors.

The Guardians don’t have room for three first basemen unless one of them tries to move to a corner-outfield spot.

The front office is always concerned about having young players adjust to the Major Leagues in April — a month that can be hard for hitters due to the weather. Add in the pressure of trying to prove you belong in the big leagues, and poor results are common. It wouldn’t be surprising if the team leaned on this concept to start the season — having Manzardo with Triple-A and De Los Santos on the big league roster (because he can’t be in the Minor Leagues).

Rays

Taylor Walls will likely not be ready for the start of the season, so newly acquired José Caballero will be the Rays shortstop to start the season.

This is the most obvious angle. The Rays don’t know what will happen with Wander Franco, who remains under investigation by MLB and authorities in the Dominican Republic. Neander also revealed it’s “unlikely” Taylor Walls will be ready for Opening Day after undergoing right hip surgery this offseason; Tampa Bay won’t want to overwork him upon his return, either.

We said last week the Rays could create some clarity at shortstop, and they did that by acquiring Caballero, a lesser-known player but one whom the Rays talked about acquiring at last year’s Trade Deadline and liked even before then. He can play multiple positions and provides value with his defense, baserunning and willingness to find ways to get on base.

Tigers

Shelby Miller will get closer consideration.

“We’re really excited to add Shelby,” Harris said. “I think he has the pure stuff to pitch at the very back end of our bullpen, he has the versatility to pitch multiple innings, if we need him to, and he has the mentality to do whatever AJ (Hinch, manager) needs to help us win.”

“We think he has a full mix that allows him to use the entire strike zone,” Harris said. “With the splitter, he brings a new wrinkle to our pen. His mix is very different than the other pieces we have in the bullpen and it gives (pitching coach Chris) Fetter and AJ more options when they’re trying to match up in games and piece together a win.”

White Sox

Garrett Crochet will get stretched out as a starter.

National League

Cardinals

Tommy Edman had offseason surgery on his wrist.

Tommy Edman, who is projected to be the team’s Opening Day starter in center field after being a Gold Glove Award finalist as a utility player in 2022 and ‘23, is still recovering from an arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in October, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told MLB.com. Edman missed three weeks last July with right wrist inflammation, and the injury continued to bother him at the plate through the end of the season. The Cards are hopeful that Edman will be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training.

Brendan Donovan is on track to be ready for Spring Training after having elbow surgery.

Brendan Donovan, the first rookie in franchise history to win a Gold Glove in 2022, saw his promising sophomore season cut short by ligament damage in his right arm. Instead of undergoing ligament replacement, known as Tommy John surgery, Donovan opted for a ligament repair — an internal brace procedure — that should allow him to be back in time for the start of Spring Training.

Mozeliak said recently that Donovan has recovered nicely from the procedure and is fully on track to be ready by the Feb. 12 Spring Training report date for pitchers and catchers. Donovan, who smashed 11 home runs in 327 at-bats last season, has backed reports of his steady progress by posting various throwing and weight-lifting workout videos on social media in recent weeks.

Nolan Gorman has been dealing intermittent back pain since 2020.

Then there’s the curious case of lefty slugger Nolan Gorman and his balky back. Still four months shy of his 24th birthday, Gorman has seen his two MLB seasons marred by sporadic back pain. He revealed to MLB.com last season that he originally injured his back while doing deadlifts in 2020 at the club’s alternate site during the COVID-19 pandemic that wiped out that season’s Minor League play.

However, the former first-round pick was limited to just 119 games because of a lingering back injury that cropped up at several inopportune times. Even the hamstring strain that felled Gorman late in the season was believed to have stemmed from a back issue that required him to put in extra “maintenance” daily.

“I think we’re cognizant of it, but I wouldn’t say I’m worried about it,” Mozeliak said. “It’s not keeping me up at night. I think he’s a player who is learning the rigors of the day-to-day life in the big leagues and what is required. But when you look at guys who have long careers in this game, they tend to find a way to go pole to pole and stay healthy.”

Cubs

Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Drew Smyly will be stretched out as starters to begin the season.

Hottovy said he would expect the trio of Assad, Smyly and Wesneski to be stretched out and receive starts during Spring Training, while knowing they could be converted into multi-inning bullpen arms if necessary. All three pitchers had ups and downs within both sides of the pitching staff in 2023.

Both Assad and Wesneski have options so they may remain starters in AAA if they don’t make the major league team.

Dodgers

• The team will go with a six-man (or six-day) rotation next year

Whether the Dodgers call it a six-man rotation will depend, most likely, on whether they add another starting pitcher this winter. But it will likely function as a six-man rotation, in terms of affording pitchers extra rest between starts.

I suspect that will continue in 2024, given:

1. Yamamoto’s transition.

2. Tyler Glasnow’s injury history.

3. Walker Buehler’s return from elbow surgery

4. Miller’s youth.

So even if the Dodgers don’t officially name six starters, they’ll likely shuttle players like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and Landon Knack through the rotation, with some bullpen games and Ryan Yarbrough usage thrown in for good measure.

… with the possibility of Walker Buehler not being in the rotation to start the season. The team wants to make sure he can throw in the playoffs.

Having ‘October Walker’ might mean not having ‘March Walker’ or ‘April Walker.’ One option that makes sense is to have Buehler’s 2024 season start later than the schedule might indicate – saving innings at the start of the season rather than building in a break at some point when the season is ongoing.

“He’ll be ready to go in spring training, but when we decide to make his debut in 2024 is going to be determined,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said earlier this month. “Whether it’s the first week or a month later, we’re going to kind of wait and see how spring goes.

“You could argue to start and have a stop or an abbreviation throughout the season. Or you could argue just start a little bit later so there’s no pause. … Obviously, Walker’s going to be a big part of the conversation and then we’ll be all in on that.”

• Juan Toribio of MLB.com took a stab at the projected lineups against righties and lefties. Here are his guesses.

Lineup vs. RHP

1. Mookie Betts, 2B
2. Shohei Ohtani, DH
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Will Smith, C
5. Max Muncy, 3B
6. Jason Heyward, RF
7. Teoscar Hernández/Chris Taylor, LF
8. James Outman, CF
9. Gavin Lux, SS

Lineup vs. LHP

1. Mookie Betts, 2B
2. Shohei Ohtani, DH
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Will Smith, C
5. Teoscar Hernández, RF
6. Max Muncy, 3B
7. Manuel Margot, CF
8. Chris Taylor, LF
9. Miguel Rojas/Gavin Lux, SS

Three notes.

  • James Outman (career .664 OPS vs LHP, .857 vs RHP) might sit against lefties with Manuel Margot (career .760 OPS vs LHP, .664 vs RHP) taking his place.
  • Jason Heyward and Chris Taylor will remain in their 2023 platoon.
  • There is a chance that Gavin Lux (career .587 OPS vs LHP, .749 OPS vs RHP) might be on the strong side of a platoon with Miguel Rojas (career .722 OPS vs LHP, .643 OPS vs RHP) on the weak side.

Giants

The team is still high on Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos.

Still, Zaidi said the Giants could also get a boost from the development of young players like Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos.

“When I look at our internal options, Ramos is certainly a guy who could provide that if he’s able to win a spot in our outfield,” Zaidi said. “We expect more power from Matos as he gets used to Major League pitching. He’s a guy who’s exhibited power in the past. But it could certainly come from outside the organization.

Both hitters have their flaws but I like the skills shown by Ramos in a small major league sample last season. Here are those skills compared to other hitters in their small sample.

Mets

Luis Severino was tipping his pitches last season.

Two rival evaluators tied Severino’s tipping issue to his open stride in his delivery, which became more exaggerated last year. At points last season, the Yankees had Gleyber Torres keep an eye on things from his vantage point in the middle of the infield. Severino worked to fix the problem in the second half of the season before ending the year on the injured list in the middle of September.

The problem appeared to be on Severino’s mind last season, too. For a period, the right-hander went from using a full windup to a modified stretch, hoping not just to regain his command but, according to a league source, to also better synchronize his delivery to avoid tipping pitches.

• The rotation is in place to start the season with no more planned additions.

So is the Mets’ rotation set? What about someone like Jakob Junis, who can start and come out of the bullpen?
—James K.

WS: Yes, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking, the Mets aren’t going to be looking for another pitcher for their rotation. That leaves the Mets with Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Severino, Houser and Manaea, plus Tylor Megill as a depth option along with Joey Lucchesi and others (David Peterson is out for the first couple of months of the season with a hip injury).

Padres

• None of Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, and Woo Suk Go 고우석 have been given the “closer” tag just yet.

Go, who had been arguably the KBO’s best closer, will be in the mix for late-inning opportunities with the Padres. Neither he nor the more widely known Matsui have been promised save chances, club officials said. The team expects to get a clearer sense of responsibilities in spring training, but Robert Suarez, now in the second year of a five-year, $46 million deal, currently projects as the favorite to handle the bulk of the ninth-inning duties.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 may play some third base to start the season as Manny Machado continues his rehab.

Machado’s rehabilitation from elbow extensor tendon repair surgery could buy the Padres some time. The third baseman might not be ready to play defense by late March, and it just so happens Kim has significant experience at Machado’s position. With the Padres in need of solutions at designated hitter, Machado might be a temporary answer during the opening weeks of the season.

It’s not obvious who is going to play on the right side of the infield besides Jake Cronenworth.

Pirates

Oneil Cruz has declared himself 100% healthy.

Cruz told reporters (including Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that he is now fully recovered following a summer setback in his rehab process. “Everything’s like it’s supposed to be….Now that I feel 100% again, just go out there like I do every year and give my 100% out there and be ready from Day 1,” Cruz said.

Reds

Frankie Montas is feeling great.

Therefore, the $16 million question: How does Montas’ shoulder feel?

“My shoulder is great,” Montas said. “That’s one of the things I’m the most excited about: To be able to be out there and compete with a healthy arm. The offseason program is going really, really good. I’m better than how I’ve felt in a long time. Throwing sides and everything. I’m pumped for this season.”

Matt McLain is back to 100% and is working on hitting the high fastball.

“I’m back to 100%,” he said. “I’ve been swinging and stuff. I think we’ve gotten up to 100 swings at this point in the offseason. I’m full-go. I’m 100%, doing everything. It’s going well.”

McLain is working on some hitting adjustments that he hopes to take with him to Spring Training next month. He plans on being an early arrival, especially since he’s already living in Arizona.

One of the things he worked on last season, and an area he will continue to seek improvement in 2024, is hitting fastballs at the top of the strike zone.

“Some of those four-seam guys who really ride the ball, I feel like if I can really take care of that fastball at the top of the zone, I can hit them at all the other places around the zone,” McLain said. “That, and obviously, hitting the hanging breaking ball a little earlier in the count.”





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Broken BatMember since 2020
1 year ago

Love your work, and belated Happy New Year. I am looking forward to your articles in 2024. I know the following isn’t connected to your update today, but was wondering if in the future we could have you look at potential #4 or #5 SP in every rotation and rank who you like. Your own ADP so to speak.