Mike Trout: Fantasy AL MVP
Here are the definitions of each award, but the easiest thing to note is that draft cost is factored into most of our awards.
Well, duh. Even with cost factored in, Mike Trout ‘ran’ away with the hardware here, too. And (duh) nobody on the staff reached for this one, because, man, how many different ways can you say that Mike Trout was awesome this year, especially after all the real-life American League MVP discussions?
Here’s my attempt: Trout was amazingly consistent this year.
Strikeout rate is one of the main inputs in Bill Petti’s volatility calculator, and it makes sense from a real-life standpoint that a player with a lot of strikeouts might have stretches where he’s not adding much with the bat — especially if he doesn’t walk much. Even though Trout’s strikeout rate this year (21.8%) was two percentage points above average, though, Trout wasn’t very volatile.
Or maybe he was, and just oscillated between amazing and awesome:
| HR | R | RBI | SB | BA | BABIP | ISO | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 5 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 0.324 | 0.39 | 0.231 | 23 |
| June | 3 | 27 | 16 | 14 | 0.372 | 0.438 | 0.159 | 17.7 |
| July | 10 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 0.392 | 0.412 | 0.412 | 18.8 |
| August | 7 | 26 | 19 | 11 | 0.284 | 0.329 | 0.216 | 23.9 |
| Sept/Oct | 5 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 0.289 | 0.378 | 0.211 | 25.9 |
In a way, this is another argument that it’s better to draft studs that contribute in all five categories. Because, sure, some of his months weren’t great if you stare down one aspect of his game. In June, his power was down a bit. Late in the season, he stole fewer bags. But there wasn’t one month on that ledger that you wouldn’t gladly take home to meet your mother.
When his power was down, his contact rate was up, and his BABIP was through the roof. He stole 14 bags in the month that only featured three home runs. When his power was up, his contact rate and BABIP were down a little, but the added power helped him survive the dip. A .284 batting average in your worst month is pretty sexy.
Should we worry about the trend in strikeout rates? Coupled with the trend in his BABIP? After all, if the two continue, he’s likely to have a much worse batting average next season.
Well, for one, his ‘bad’ BABIPs were pretty good, and his production in bad BABIP months would make for great full-season paces, too.
And his strikeout rate? His swinging strike rates never once were worse than league average. Here they are from May on, thanks to Jeff Zimmerman: 5.01%, 8.35%, 5.96%, 7.89%, 7.92%. Yes, those latter two numbers are a bit higher than his full-season work. No, it doesn’t really seem like a big deal. He was also swinging less in those two months (35.78 and 37.26% vs 40.85, 43.18 and 40.21%), so maybe he was just looking for home runs after his 10-homer month, and the passivity lead to a few extra swings and misses. The point is that he was very consistent overall, and even the mini-trends in the wrong direction seem like they aren’t a big deal.
Consistency is king. Well, in roto it matters a little less because you get your stats however way they come — as long as you leave your slumper in the lineup and don’t try to spot the streaks. But in head-to-head leagues, having a Steady Eddy like Trout is huge.
And look, I didn’t once mention his most excellent overall stats or Miguel Cabrera in awarding Mike Trout the RotoGraphs Fantasy AL MVP. Ooops.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
For fantasy purposes, Trout and Miggy were MUCH closer and depending on the format Miggy could easily be more valuabe.
I think perhaps you’ve let the cloud of the real life debate factor into a FANTASY debate. When defense and baserunning are taken out of the equation, I don’t understand how one can make a statement like “Well, duh. Even with cost factored in, Mike Trout ‘ran’ away with the hardware here, too. And (duh) nobody on the staff reached for this one…”.
FANTASY MVP. Don’t let the real life debate make you biased.
Draft position
Nope. Says nothing about draft position. An MVP award doesn’t depend on draft position (or in real life, salary). It’s strictly performance.
Most Valuable Player. Not player that provided the best return or most valuable relative to initial cost.
*cough* You*cough* said nothing about it. Maybe you should read the article describing the awards again. This is fantasy MVP, and cost is most CERTAINLY a factor. That is why this is Trout’s award, and Miggy is like the 15th or 20th person down the list. You had to pay a first round pick for Miggy. How can he outperform that?
FANTASY MVP, don’t let the facts get in the way of your dumb argument.
Read the introduction segment to the Fantasy Awards:
MVP
The fantasy MVP is NOT the best player overall. The fantasy MVP is the guy that returned the most value. So we give consideration to draft cost. Hint: in the AL it might not make much of a difference. But in the NL, where a player like Ryan Braun was excellent, but also expensive, you might find a surprise.
Eating crow.
Yeah I wrote about Cabrera v Trout last week and found it pretty close, but I’d still take Trout’s season this year.
AS for this, I’ve updated the top with a link to the definitions and will tell the writers to do the same.
I had the first pick in my fantasy draft this year (23 category head to head league), and i picked miggy. needless to say, during the final week of the season, and into the playoffs, cabrera was huge for me, continuing to generate hits, homers, walks, and an outstanding triple slash line. the guy who had trout didnt even make it out of the first round. obviously these players were just 1 of many on our teams, but miggy helped carry me to a championship, as im sure he did for many fantasy owners. thats a fact, and so is that trout most certainly didnt carry many teams to a championship in the final week of fantasy. he may have helped a team position themselves for a championship by being awesome for so long, but in september, miggy definitely had a bigger and more significant fantasy impact.
In H2H.
And 50 other players had “significantly more impact” during the H2H playoffs. That’ why you don’t look at small samples like 2 weeks.
Yeah. Silly argument. I won my H2H league playoffs with Mike Trout, and the guy with Miguel Cabrera didn’t make the playoffs.
Baserunning does matter in fantasy, Matt.
Trout is the obvious MVP in fantasy. You did not have to draft him in the first round. Cabrera was drafted early in round 1 or protected. Most people had no chance to get him. Trout was either drafted in the very late rounds or picked up as a free agent.
To get first round player VALUE off the waiver wire, makes Trout the obvious choice.
Only with that caveat of draft position. And that caveat was described in these rankings. But just because someone costs less doesn’t mean they were more valuable. It means they provided a better return. Your statement is not true nor absolute without the caveat being disclaimed prior.
If player A makes 5 million and is worth 7 WAR and player B makes 20 million and is worth 8 WAR, player B is still more value. He didn’t provide as much surplus value to his team, but he was overall more valuable.
And as for people having no chance to get him – only one team per a league can own Cabrera. Only one team per league can own Trout. Luck of the draw. You can’t hold that against either of them.
And I already ate crow. I did not read the introduction segment and jumped to a conclusion without knowing the facts. You should attempt to try and avoid the same mistake I made.
I suggest you locate a dictionary and look up the word value, Matt.
Price will always be a factor. You did not have to spend big to get Trout.
Idiot:
val·ue/ˈvalyo͞o/
Noun:
The regard that something is held to deserve; the importance or preciousness of something:
Price is determined after value has been established. Stop trolling. I was wrong in the context of this MVP as awarded by this site. Period. Grow up.
Cabrera is the Playoff MVP. [H2H]
Trout is the Season MVP. [All other Fomats]
Cabrera? Not hardly. The list of best, most valuable player in the AL for *H2H playoffs* starts with Chris Davis. Then it goes Ichiro, Brandon Moss, Nick Swisher… then Miggy.
And you still had to pay 1st round, top three picks price for only the 5th best player during the playoffs.
All of your award-winners so far are Angels or ex-Angels. West Coast bias? :p
Jacoby Ellsbury played for the Angels?
Thanks for admitting that you were wrong, Matt. But, there is no need for name calling.
My point was the lower the cost for an elite player….the more valuble he is to your team.
I am not arguing trout’s mvp credentials. he deserved it much more than miguel, his closest competition. I was looking at his numbers to see what we should expect next season. some numbers that jumped out at me were his splits vs L and vs R and his BABIP trend this season. why does he have better numbers against right-handed hitting than left-handed?