Mike Podhorzer’s 2026 Bold Predictions

Is the regular season that close that it’s already time for Bold Predictions?! I’ve been doing these for many, many years and they never stop being fun. I also want to caution that I’m truly fantastic at predicting injuries. By that, I mean a good portion of my positive picks seem to regularly miss a chunk of the season while on the IL, so perhaps being listed here is more curse than complement. We shall find out if the trend continues at the end of September! Note that any bold predictions calling for an auction value or ranking by end of season will be based on our auction calculator’s default settings.

Jac Caglianone Hits 30 Homers

I’m actually quite surprised that I’m the only one to include Caglianone in a bold prediction. The former top prospect crushed Double-A and Triple-A pitching last year, en route to his MLB debut at the beginning of June. While he missed just over a month with a hamstring injury, he ended up a massive disappointment when he actually took the field. Not only was his .239 wOBA well below expectations, of course, but he posted a shockingly low .138 ISO, after a .280 mark in the minors.

The good news is that this looks almost entirely like bad luck. He posted strong Statcast power metrics and suffered from a ridiculous .172 BABIP. Speaking of Statcast power metrics, you may have noticed his ADP has been climbing. While I couldn’t care less about his current .548 wOBA in 20 Spring PAs, what I do care about is his exit velocities. He has already posted a 120.2 EV, which would have ranked as the third hardest hit ball in all of baseball last year. He also recorded EVs of 116.5 MPH and 115.2 MPH. Meanwhile, his maxEV at Triple-A last year was just 113.6 MPH and with the Royals, 114.1 MPH. Statcast only has 22 exit velocities for Caglianone this Spring and three have them have already eclipsed his max mark last year! It’s not like we didn’t know he owned power, but man, has his power skills spiked even higher?

Finally, they are bringing in some of the walls at Kauffman Stadium to make it more hitter friendly. So now you got a former top tier prospect coming off a disappointing debut, but with much stronger underlying skills, that’s going to depress his price, is lighting up the gun with his power display in spring training, and will be playing half his games in a more home run friendly park. He’s the ultimate of targets and 30 home runs shouldn’t even feel that bold, but the most bullish projection sits at just 23 dingers.

Dustin May is a Top 40 Starting Pitcher

Yes, that Dustin May. The one who after all these years, finally eclipsed 100 innings, heck, exceeded even 60 innings, but suffered a skills nosedive and posted a 4.96 ERA. All this time, we were hoping we would finally get that relatively healthy season from May. We finally do, and this is what he gave us!

This year, the full season breakout might actually happen. He’s healthy, at least for now. And guess what…his velocity has returned. It was only three innings in his spring debut, but he averaged 98 MPH with his four-seamer, up 2.6 MPH from last year and more in line with what he averaged when he was actually good in his limited innings. Sometimes these tiny spring samples could be deceiving because in such short outings, it’s possible some starters feel they can throw a little harder, kind of like the starter-to-reliever velocity spike. However, May already threw three pitches at 99.3 MPH, when last year his hardest thrown pitch was 98.7 MPH. So he’s already exceeded his max velocity of the entirety of 2025 in just 11 four-seamers in spring training. That’s…something. His sinker is similarly up, which combined is quite encouraging.

Sal Stewart is the Top Fantasy Player in All the Land Goes 25/15

Despite the Reds typical logjam of hitters, the team has to give Stewart regular at-bats, right? It’s not even like he’s left-handed and at serious risk of being platooned. This is an offensive profile that should very clearly be playing every day. Let’s talk about that profile, shall we?

For a power hitter, he strikes out surprisingly infrequently. In fact, he has never struck out more than 16.9% of the time in the minors at any stop. I love to see that because that means more balls in play, which means a higher potential batting average and more home run opportunities. He posted a HardHit% over 50% at Triple-A last year, and during his Reds debut, but that was over a small sample. That Triple-A time also included a 113.7 MPH maxEV, which is quite god.

Aside from the power, he also steals bases! He stole 17 in the minors last year and already has two over just 23 spring training PAs. So if he’s really going to run too, that’s going to make him quite the unique first baseman and a valuable asset.

Randy Vásquez Earns Positive Value

It sounds ridiculous to boldly project any player to merely earn positive value. However, Vásquez is projected to “earn” -$27.80 using the Steamer forecasts, -$23.60 using Depth Charts, -$24.70 using ZiPS DC, -$25.20 using ATC, -$26.70 using THE BAT X, and -$23.20 using OOPSY. Oh, and even with a 3.84 ERA last year, he earned -$13.20. So if there’s any starting pitcher who would be considered bold to predict positive earnings for, it’s definitely him.

So have I gone Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs? Nope, I’m just obsessed with spring training velocity spikes, no matter who experiences one. He has pitched in three games so far, and starting from his first, his four-seam velocity has averaged 96.6 MPH, 95.6 MPH, and 96 MPH. I cautioned in my May writeup that it’s possible some pitchers show higher average velocities over shorter spurts as their ranges are compressed. We do see some of that here, as he has only maxed at 97.3 MPH, versus a peak of 97.8 MPH last year and over his MLB career. Still, he averaged just 93.4 MPH with his four-seamer last year and has never been above 94.4 MPH, so this is a significant spike. While results over such a tiny spring sample hardly matter, he did post a 33.8% CSW% in his first two starts, while his last start brought an elite 40% mark. That last start, though, isn’t counted in his FanGraphs line since it was against Team Great Britain. The velocity surge, plus the massive uptick in CSW% (he owns just a 23.6% career mark) suggests that his stuff is markedly improved.

What’s interesting here is that his career Stuff+ is right at the league average of 100 and last year he was only slightly below average at 97. Yet, his strikeout rates have been microscopic, so I’m not sure what the disconnect is there. Perhaps the added velocity, assuming it sticks, will actually make him a useable pitcher, even in shallower leagues.

Cal Raleigh is Not a Top 5 Catcher

Yeah, it’s become fashionable to fade a guy coming off a career year. But do you realize how career yeary this was in terms of his underlying skills? He set career bests in the following metrics: strikeout rate, walk rate, FB%, pulled FB%, HR/FB rate, HardHit%, EV, maxEV, Barrel%. That’s nearly every single skill metric in my custom stat table. On the one hand, it’s an opportunity to celebrate how incredible he was last year. On the other hand, all these career bests make it even more unlikely that he comes anywhere close to a repeat. Oh, and I forgot to mention the random 14 steals!

Don’t forget that this is a guy whose best batting average in a season is just .247, and that was last year, when he hit 60 home runs and struck out at a career low clip. Betting against any hitter coming off a historic offensive performance, especially one who set so many career bests, and especially a catcher, is just the right move.

Amazingly, there are actually a lot of catchers I like this year, which isn’t really normal. So rather than just pick a top X number Raleigh will fail to reach, I’ll list a bunch of names that I could realistically see as having a chance to finish there instead (projected to earn outside top 10 value at Catcher based on ATC) — Adley Rutschman (former top prospect rebounds), Francisco Alvarez (full healthy season + elite Statcast power metrics), Samuel Basallo (elite Statcast power metrics at Triple-A), Logan O’Hoppe (Driveline magic), Carter Jensen (power + speed and more hitter friendly home park). I don’t think it would be too surprising if any of these names finished in the top five, and certainly those ranked six through 10 could make there way into the top five too and squeeze out Raleigh if he’s just a .230-hitting, 30-homer guy with his steals back to Earth.

Kodai Senga Strikes Out 200 Batters

…Again. Is it bold if he actually did it in 2023? Last year he only recorded 109 strikeouts because he missed time to injury and was even sent down to the minors for a spell because of a terrible July and August. He’s now only projected for 126 strikeouts tops, with the majority of forecasts expecting him to spend time in the bullpen. Welp, remember I reminded ya’ll about my obsession with velocity spikes? Here’s another.

It’s only been one start and 18 four-seamers, but he averaged 96.7 MPH with the pitch, which is up two miles per hour compared to last year. More exciting though is that he was more of a May than a Vásquez, as he maxed out at 98.9 MPH, also throwing a pitch 98.4 MPH, which already exceeds his max velocity of 98.3 MPH last year. He has thrown harder than 98.9 MPH before, but that was back in 2023, when he maxed at 99.8 MPH. You know what else happened in 2023? I told you above — he recorded 202 strikeouts thanks to a 29.1% strikeout rate, en route to a 2.98 ERA.

For this prediction to come right, both health and a performance rebound have to come together. I’m less optimistic about the health, especially given my track record, but at the very least, I think his strikeout rate significantly rebounds (which begs the question why I didn’t just predict a bold strikeout rate).

Logan O’Hoppe, Edgar Quero, and Jordan Walker Combine For 60 Home Runs

The Driveline Baseball boys are projected for around 43 dingers, so 60 is going to require some combination of more than expected playing time and/or significant outperformance of all their forecasts. The trio all visited Driveline Baseball over the offseason, and while the training system is not a panacea, there have been enough success stories to know that it could be a career changer.

O’Hoppe has posted strong Statcast power metrics, but he has struck out a lot, which has capped his home run output. Perhaps Driveline is all he needed to deliver a big breakout.

Quero was one of two top catching prospects with the White Sox that debuted last year, but his home run power disappeared upon his promotion. He posted an 18.8% HR/FB rate in the minors in 2024, but that fell to just 5.9% with the Sox last year. Hitting more fly balls would also boost his upside.

Walker was a one-time top prospect, graded with 55/80 Game and 70/80 Raw Power and has recorded fantastic maxEV marks. But he’s been a flop in 1,039 PAs, with just a .138 ISO and .298 wOBA. He’s still just 23 though, so it’s good to see him trying to do something to turn his career trajectory around.

Trevor Rogers, Andrew Abbott, and Noah Cameron All Post 4.00+ ERAs

What does this trio have in common? They all ranked within the top 10 in SIERA overperformance among 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched last year. It wouldn’t be all that bold to predict just one of these pitchers would post an ERA of at least 4.00, but all three of them?

After posting a 4.92 ERA in 2024 after his strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction, Rogers rewarded fantasy owners praying for a turnaround with a microscopic 1.81 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates rebounded, though his Stuff+ remained well below average and barely better than the previous season, while his Pitching+ was the second lowest of his career. How did he finish with such strong results then? Look no further than the second lowest BABIP, lowest HR/FB rate, and fourth highest LOB% among that same group of pitchers described above. So yeah, all the luck metrics. Of course there was luck needed to post a sub-2.00 ERA, but I think regression will be a lot worse than most assume.

Abbott has been a divisive name among statheads as he also pretty clearly overperformed his underlying skills. Unlike Rogers, Abbott’s strikeout rate was actually just below average, so he relied even more on his defense and hoping batters didn’t launch his fly balls over the fence. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s quite a risky endeavor to post a below average strikeout rate in such a homer-happy home park. Like Rogers, his Stuff+ has graded below average, though at least it has trended up. And his Pitching+ was just below average as well.

Cameron is easily getting the least amount of love in fantasy drafts this year, despite the 2.99 ERA, as he posted the highest SIERA and lowest strikeout rate. His .241 BABIP ranked eighth lowest, while his LOB% ranked fifth highest. His Stuff+ was nearly as bad as Rogers’, while his Pitching+ was in the same range as the other names at just below average. What’s perhaps even scarier is that his fastball velocity is down 1.9 MPH so far in spring, and he wasn’t exactly a flamethrower to begin with. I don’t worry as much about velocity loss in spring as I get excited about velocity gains, but when you’re already facing significant regression, it just adds more fuel to the fire.

Heliot Ramos Outearns Jo Adell

How does a guy post a 47.4% HardHit%, 116 MPH maxEV and only an 8.8% Barrel%? And how does that HardHit% and maxEV combo produce just an 11.9% HR/FB rate? Between a Barrel% rebound, and perhaps a higher rate of pulled flies, there are multiple paths for Ramos to flirt with 30 home runs.

Adell finally made good on his former top prospect status, but that still came with just a .333 wOBA, thanks to an extreme fly ball profile leading to a low BABIP and a disinterest in taking a walk. The only difference between the two hitters’ Statcast power metrics was the Barrel%, those two rates could easily converge this season.

Whether you come away from this thinking Ramos is a cheaper version of Adell, Ramos is in for a breakout, or Adell is in for a fall, this likely has a much higher chance of happening than most think, considering their respective ADPs (Ramos at 219, Adell at 120).

Shota Imanaga Outearns Bryan Woo

You thought I was done talking about pitcher velocity, eh? Never! In three spring games, Imanaga has averaged 92.6 MPH with his four-seamer, compared to just 90.8 MPH last year and 91.7 MPH in his 2024 debut. The velocity trend hasn’t been great, with each spring game being lower than the previous one, but his last game and lowest average mark so far was still 92.1 MPH, which is better than he has posted previously. Like some of the other velocity gainers above, he has already exceeded last year’s max. He has thrown five pitches of at least 94 MPH, peaking at 94.1 MPH, while he maxed at just 93.8 MPH all of last year. He did max at 94.6 MPH in 2024, but only being 0.5 MPH below in 77 spring pitches is meaningful.

Imanaga lost a great deal of strikeout rate last year, resulting in a big jump in ERA, though his sterling control remained. Increased velocity could go a long way to triggering a strikeout rate rebound.

Woo has become a consensus top tier pitcher, but I have a hard time getting behind him. He’s extremely similar to Imanaga in that he owns pinpoint control, leading to low walk rates and strong WHIP marks. However, with just a 26.8% CSW% last year, right below the 26.9% starter league average, it’s hard to believe the strikeout rate spike to 27.1% is sustainable.

So suddenly you end up with potentially two very similar pitchers, with above average, but nowhere near elite, strikeout rates and elite control. Now it just comes down to health and run support to deliver the W.