Mike Podhorzer’s 2025 Bold Predictions

For the first time in many, many years, I failed to publish a bold predictions post last year. It was sad. We shall not let that happen again, so it’s time to think bold once again. I usually try to develop my bold predictions based on knowledge I don’t think is being captured by the projections. Or perhaps, it’s not being fully captured. So you won’t catch me boldly predicting that Young Player X, who hit 20 homers last year, will “break out” this season with 30 homers, because, ya know, he’s young and young hitters improve. That’s not boldly predicting, that’s just guessing based on general career trajectories. Alright, enough of the yadda yaddas, let’s get to ’em.

Oneil Cruz Hits 35 Home Runs

Oh no, I’m already starting with Young Player X who hit 20 homers last year that I’m boldly predicting will hit 35 this year! Settle down and let me explain. Cruz has appeared on breakout lists for years now and excited fantasy owners given his blend of power and speed. While he was very solid last year when he recorded a 21/22 season, we wanted more. Perhaps this season, we’ll finally get it.

In mid-January, I created a quick Barrels per FB + LD percentage metric to identify hitters whose HR/FB rates appeared to have either underperformed or overperformed their underlying skills. Cruz appeared atop my list of underperformers. Last season, he posted some absurd Statcast metrics, including a 54.9% HardHit% (ranking 5th among qualified hitters), 121.5 MPH maxEV (easily ranking 1st), and 15.7% overall Barrel% (also ranking 5th). And yet, he was somehow saddled with just a respectable, but mildly disappointing, 17.1% HR/FB rate.

Those Statcast metrics weren’t even a fluke. While his HardHit% did surge last year, his maxEV actually finished just below his even more ridiculous 122.4 MPH mark recorded in 2022, while his Barrel% was nearly identical. I don’t see why he couldn’t explode for a 25% HR/FB rate or higher this year as the Statcast metrics certainly would support it. He’s even got room for a higher FB%, which would really raise his home run ceiling.

Victor Scott II (NFBC ADP 357) Outearns Dylan Crews (NFBC ADP 125)

Sadly, it was announced that Scott II had won the Cardinals starting center field job before I had a chance to publish this bold prediction, so this looks a bit less bold now. That said, no one is going to dare roster Scott II at anywhere near the price that Crews has been, and will continue, to fetch.

I don’t have anything negative to say about Crews, as he owns both power and speed, and his plate discipline metrics suggest he wasn’t overmatched last year during his debut, despite posting just a .283 wOBA over a small sample size. Instead, this is all about Scott II.

After stealing a crazy 94 bases in 2023 with a .364 wOBA, the former fourth best prospect in the organization and 88th best overall opened last season as the team’s starting center fielder as well. Unfortunately, it didn’t go so well. He posted an ugly .128 wOBA over 65 PAs, which was driven by a microscopic walk rate and no power. Back to Triple-A he went, where he wasn’t a whole lot better, posting just a .278 wOBA. Don’t forget that Scott II hadn’t recorded a single PA at Triple-A when he was named the team’s center fielder last year, so perhaps he was simply rushed and the poor performance messed with his head.

Fast forward to spring training of this year. While I’m one of the first to tell you that spring stats mean nothing (most do, not all), there are a handful that are worth paying attention to. Those are precisely the ones that Scott II is excelling in that has me excited.

To quickly summarize, he has walked at a double digit clip, his strikeout rate is back down below 20% supported by a reduced SwStk%, and he has surprisingly posted a 28.6% HR/FB rate and .390 ISO. Oh, and he’s already swiped five bags in seven tries. While a home run here and there could be due to good fortune from park factors, Chicago wind, etc, it’s hard to fake four of them already. This is particularly true for a guy who has never posted a HR/FB rate higher than 8.1% or ISO higher than .167 (at Single-A) over his entire professional career.

Sure, he figures to hit ninth to open the year. But, there’s definitely opportunity to move up, as the team’s current leadoff hitter Masyn Winn projects for an OBP ranging from just .300 to .320, depending on the system. That is not leadoff man material, so if Scott II hits, there could be a chance to overtake Winn atop the order.

Are you dreaming of our newest 15/40 man? I sure am!

Kris Bryant Posts a .200 ISO

Whaaaaaaaat?! Yeah, I feel the same way. Bryant used to be a power hitter and when he moved to Colorado and their home run inflating park, I was excited. Instead, he’s battled injury and weak performance and hasn’t posted an ISO over .169 in the last three years. So why on Earth would I predict that Bryant, who is obviously another year older now, will suddenly rediscover his power stroke?

It’s simple really, the number 111.8 MPH. And 109.6 MPH. Those are the exit velocities Bryant has recorded on two balls in play this spring training. Why is that significant? Because he hasn’t hit a ball at least 111.8 MPH since…2017! Heck, he hasn’t even hit a ball 109.6 MPH since 2021. The fact he’s already hit two balls with higher EVs than his highest maxEV over the last three years seems quite meaningful. I have no idea whether he stays healthy all season, which prevented me from predicting some home run target, but perhaps Bryant is now “in the best shape of his life”, or at least over the last couple of years, and we see a performance rebound.

The Lowes Combine for 55 Dingers

That’s Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the Rays will be temporarily playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field this year. The park’s field dimensions are exact replicas of Yankee Stadium. That means Rays lefties will be going from a park with an 88 home run park factor to 119. That’s a massive increase and I’m not sure are accounted for in any of the projections.

Both Brandon and Josh have pulled their fly balls at higher rates than the league average, so they could greatly benefit from the left-handed home run park factor of their new home digs. Of course, health will be a main factor in reaching this target, so fingers crossed the rash of injuries we have been hearing about doesn’t hit the Lowes.

Isaac Paredes Earns Top 6 Fantasy Value Among Third Basemen

We’re sticking with the park factor theme here, as Paredes goes from a park that suppressed right-handed home runs to one that inflates them. Paredes has consistently appeared near the top of the leaderboard for pull rate on fly balls, so he is likely going to really, really enjoy playing half his games at Minute Maid Park with the Crawford Boxes in left-field looking tantalizingly close.

Minute Maid is also a bit better for hits in general compared to Wrigley Field, which should help with one of Paredes’ biggest weaknesses, batting average. His consistently low BABIP is thanks to a high FB% and pop-up rate, so any park factor assistance he can get would be welcome. He figures to hit second, in between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, which should be a great spot to accumulate runs scored and RBI as well.

All 5 Starting Pitchers Below Exceed Their ATC K% Projection

What do all these starting pitchers have in common? Spring training velocity spikes, of course! Velocity and pitch mix are some of the few things I pay attention to in spring. While spring velocity surges don’t always last into the regular season, when they do, they could portend a breakout. Each of these “exceed his projected K%” prediction seems kind of obvious on its own, but something always ends up going wrong with at least one pitcher, so getting everyone in the group right is definitely no slam dunk.

Jesús Luzardo — battled injury last year, limiting him to just 66.2 innings, so the velocity surge is more of a rebound, and along with a strong SwStk% mark so far, suggest he’s healthy again, with 2022 and 2023 ratios representing his upside

Casey Mize — I was so ready to move on from Mize, but then he goes to Driveline baseball to “fix his slider”, while planning to use his splitter more, and increases his fastball velocity; he hasn’t meaningfully upped his splitter rate so far, but every pitch of his has increased dramatically in Whiff%, including his slider, so perhaps his stuff has truly improved, which could explain the 29% spring strikeout rate and 15.2% SwStk%

Cristopher Sánchez — ahh, everyone’s new favorite sleeper, as the sinkerballer is up nearly two ticks on the pitch, leading to a 29.2% strikeout rate and 17.3% SwStk% during spring, both significantly higher than what he’s done before in the Majors

Max Meyer — the former top prospect has not only enjoyed a velocity surge, but also added a sweeper to his arsenal, which has so far delivered a 30% Whiff% over a tiny sample

Bryce Miller — not only is Miller throwing harder than he has over the past two seasons, but he, too, has added a sweeper, because apparently that’s what all the cool kids are doing these days

Mike Clevinger Records More Saves Than Félix Bautista

Clevinger, the closer?! Now in relief, His fastball velocity has rebounded back above 94 MPH and he has struck out 41.2% of opposing batters over a tiny spring sample so far. While his underlying skills have collapsed in recent years, don’t forget how good he was during his peak when he was striking out batters at a mid-to-high 20% rate, even posting a 33.9% mark back in 2019. The biggest thing going for him, though, is a true lack of other alternatives. The lowest projected ERA of any expected to open the season in the bullpen is 4.29! I think Clevinger’s performance alone should be decent enough to hold the job, and even on a bad team, that should still amount to at least 20-25 saves.

On the other hand, Bautista is returning from multiple elbow surgeries, including TJ, that knocked him out for the entire 2024 season. We have 27 pitches worth of Statcast data on his sinker, which is down a whopping 3.2 MPH from his 2023 velocity. Sure, that’s still big velocity, and he certainly doesn’t need to strike out over 40% of opposing batters to succeed. But we don’t know what kind of pitcher he is while throwing three miles per hour slower (though that could increase as the season progresses). Furthermore, pitchers often struggle with their control when returning from elbow issues/surgery and Bautista is already coming off a double digit walk rate. There are enough risks here that I avoided him at his draft day cost, and given the Orioles plethora of closer alternatives, could result in quite a disappointing year for his fantasy owners.

Zebby Matthews Earns The Second Highest Fantasy Value Among Twins Starters

It was a mild surprise when Matthews was optioned to Triple-A, confirming that he failed to win an opening day rotation spot with the Twins. He’s yet another velocity gainer, up more than a mile per hour over his 9.1 innings of spring work. That led to an absurd 37.5% strikeout rate and since he already owns sterling control, the upside looks even higher now. He was already the team’s fourth ranked prospect with a 60/70 slider, so if that increased fastball velocity sticks, he could end up far better than a number four or five starter our prospects report called him.

Onto his competition, I am a bit miffed, and also worried (if I were an owner) about both Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, likely Matthew’s two biggest competitors for a top two spot (I’m assuming Pablo López ends up the most valuable). Both of them have suffered from fastball velocity losses, and since neither threw hard to begin with, brings their velocity down closer to serious risk territory that could really hamper their performances.

Ober’s fastball velocity has dipped in each successive spring start, most recently averaging just 89.4 MPH. That’s 2.3 MPH lower than what he averaged last season. That makes you wonder whether he’s dealing with a dead arm phase, injury, or just a deterioration of arm speed, however that may happen. Whatever it is, it’s a very scary trend.

Ryan is in a bit of a different situation, as he enjoyed a 1.7 MPH velocity spike last year and may not be able to maintain it this season. He did record a 93 MPH average velocity during his first Statcast game, which was in between his last two seasons, but that dipped to just 91.4 MPH in his last game. The velocity jump last year didn’t increase his SwStk% or his strikeout rate though, so perhaps it’s not so worrying if he can’t maintain it. Still, I would feel better with him throwing at his 2024 velocity than not.

Yusei Kikuchi (NFBC ADP 171) Outearns Aaron Nola (NFBC ADP 88)

Yusei Kukuchi, I say starting pitcher bargain. Kikuchi has only posted one sub-4.00 ERA over his career, as he has consistently underperformed his SIERA, though his xERA suggests that he has been deserving of some of his inflated BABIP and HR/FB rates. Last year, his skills took another step up, as he posted his lowest SIERA and xERA, but he still couldn’t nudge that ERA below 4.00, thanks to the second lowest LOB% of his career. There’s always something preventing Kikuchi’s ratios from matching those strikeout and walk rates!

This year, he moves to a new team and new park (with nearly identical overall park factors to where he’s pitched the last couple of seasons). He hasn’t gained velocity this spring like the rest of the names I’m boldly predicting good things from above. Instead, he has added a…wait for it…sweeper to his repertoire and so far over a tiny spring sample, it has produced the second highest Whiff% of his pitches. Between the new pitch and the hope it becomes an effective weapon, and banking on some better luck to bring his ERA more in line with his SIERA/xERA, he could end up a bargain at his ADP.

Like the two Twins above, Nola has been worrisome this spring. His fastball velocity has remained remarkably consistent during his career, sitting in a tight range between 92.3 MPH and 93.1 MPH since 2017. This spring, however, his fastball has averaged just 90.6 MPH, and it had been worse each game, sitting at just 90.3 MPH in his second to last start, before rebounding slightly to 90.7 MPH in his last start. If the velocity doesn’t return, could it hamper the effectiveness of his knuckle curve, the pitch has has thrown most frequently the last two seasons?