Mike Podhorzer’s 2022 Bold Predictions – A Review

With the 2022 regular season officially in the books, it’s time to review alllllll the predictions, calls, and dreams I shared heading into the season. Let’s start with the bold predictions. I have not even looked at them since publishing, so I honestly cannot remember the players involved, let alone any of the specific predictions. I’m eager to find out not only how I did, but what my predictions were in the first place!

All Three of These Pitchers Beat their Steamer Projected K% By >= 1%:

The thesis here was that all three of these starting pitchers had enjoyed a fastball velocity bump during spring training that hinted at a strikeout rate spike during the regular season. Ryan sustained a velocity surge for the year, as his fastball jumped from an average of 91.3 MPH last year to 92.0 this year. That’s not too significant though and still below average for a right-hander. He also posted widely varying strikeout rates each month, from as low as 15.7% in June to a high of 30.1% in April. Sure enough, Ryan landed on the IL in late May after testing positive for COVID-19, so it’s very possible, and perhaps likely, that his velocity and performance were affected just before testing positive and after he returned.

While Jesús Luzardo’s velocity also increased this year, he couldn’t quite maintain the full surge he enjoyed during spring training. However, it was a full-on breakout for Luzardo as he was the only pitcher of the three to not only meet the minimum K% needed to make this prediction true, but he blew it out of the water. You simply don’t give up on a pitcher who has posted SwStk% marks at the levels he has.

I was so excited about Keller’s spring velocity spike, and he actually did increase his velocity the most of the three during the regular season. Yet, he barely upped his strikeout rate, which is just shocking. In fact, his 8.7% SwStk% is massively disappointing for a pitcher who averaged 95.7 MPH with his fastball. Surprisingly, he posted his lowest slider SwStk% of his career, despite the increased fastball velocity. It’s amazing to me he simply hasn’t been able to translate the high octane fastball into more strikeouts. With all that said, he still managed to post a sub-4.00 ERA, so he was back to delivering some fantasy league value after his disastrous 6.17 ERA last year.

While I missed on two of three here, this was definitely a win in identifying pitchers that yielded profits, as all three likely earned well above their draft day cost.

0 for 1

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 is a Top-20 Middle Infielder*

The expectation here was that Kim would get at least two months while Fernando Tatis Jr. was on the IL to prove he was worthy of a starting job even after Tatis returned. Welp, Tatis never returned and Kim ended up recording 582 PAs. Unfortunately, even with a full season, he still managed to hit just 11 home runs, while stealing 12 bases. As a result, he ranked just 35th among mixed league middle infielders, earning just $4.4 according to our calculator. While most of his skills have been respectable, his power simply hasn’t translated. He’ll be just 27 years old next year, so he’s still young enough to experience a power spike.

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Keston Hiura Hits 25 Home Runs

I knew playing time might be the biggest anchor holding him down, and that’s exactly what happened. He recorded just 266 PAs, but partially rebounded offensively and his power output returned. He hit 14 home runs during his limited time so was easily on pace to hit 25 if he earned the playing time. He also posted a career high HR/FB rate. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate jumped above 40%, and it’s reaaaaaaaaaaaaaally difficult to succeed at the plate while striking out so often.

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Josiah Gray Outearns Framber Valdez*

I guess it’s a good thing that it wasn’t until my fourth prediction that we find my first real laugher. Gray disappointed again, and clearly missed the memo that home runs were down across the league. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, he should have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the decline in the league’s HR/FB rate. Instead, he led all pitchers with at least 80 IP in HR/9 allowed. His SwStk% also declined, which meant his strikeout rate didn’t rise like I expected.

On the other hand, Valdez was elite once again with his extreme ground ball tendency, despite mediocre strikeout and walk rates.

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Mitch Garver is the Top Overall Catcher*

There we go! If you recall my prediction article reviews in the past, you might remember that I somehow always managed to include a ton of players who missed big chunks of time due to injury. I guess it’s not so bad that we didn’t encounter our first injured player until the fifth prediction. Garver recorded just 215 PAs after injury ended his season early. Before he hit the IL though, he was a slight disappointment, thanks mainly to a .228 BABIP that led to just a .207 batting average.

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Seth Brown Hits 30 Home Runs

Soooooo close! Brown finished the season with 25 home runs, five short of the 30 target. With 11 steals and a slightly higher batting average than last year, it’s likely he yielded some profit for owners who bought him cheap in deeper leagues.

Two factors led to a sub-30 homer season. First, his HR/FB rate dropped from 20.6% to 16% despite a similar maxEV and Barrel%. Second, his FB% dropped from an extreme 50% to a merely well above league average 44.1%. So a lower rate of fly balls, plus fewer of those flies going over the fence resulted in a lower home run total. MATH!

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Brandon Marsh Outearns Randy Arozarena*

The thinking here was that Marsh, as a significant HR/FB rate underperformer in 2021, had far more power than he had shown during his debut, while Arozarena seemingly massively overperformed in both his BABIP and wOBA. So I figured Marsh was due to surprise to the upside, while Arozarena would disappoint.

Neither happened. Marsh was essentially the outfield version of Kim discussed above, and Arozarena outperformed his xwOBA again, all the while upping his steals total, finishing tied for the fourth most in baseball.

Marsh ranked just 60th among outfielders in fantasy value, earning $2.50, while Arozarena’s $24 earnings ranked him eighth.

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Brent Rooker is a Top-2 Twins Outfielder*

Perhaps my worst prediction ever? This is truly embarrassing. Rooker actually never even recorded a plate appearance with the Twins this year, as he was traded to the Padres at the beginning of the regular season. He ultimately recorded just seven PAs with the team before being shipped to the Royals at the beginning of August, where he recorded just 29 PAs.

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Nick Lodolo Earns the Most Value Among All Reds Pitchers*

Soooooo very close again! Only reliever Alexis Díaz earned more among Reds pitchers than Lodolo, thanks to his 10 saves, 1.84 ERA, and 83 strikeouts. Before the season, it would take quite a lot of guesses to name Díaz as the one pitcher to outearn Lodolo!

But despite getting this one wrong, this was still another “in spirit” win, as Lodolo was actually quite good when healthy. While he didn’t quite show the worm-killing abilities he had in the minors (high GB%), he showcased an excellent trio of pitches to generate swings and misses with his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup to post a near 30% strikeout rate. The rookie was certainly as good as one could have hoped.

0 for 9 Boooooooo

*Using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with default settings