Mike Podhorzer’s 2018 Bold Predictions
Only four days until Opening Day! Now that all my drafts and auctions have been completed, it’s finally time to reveal my 2018 bold predictions.
Gregory Bird posts an AB/HR rate of 14
You’re killing me Bird, you’re killing me. A positive Bird prediction had to appear here (I now officially own him in all five of my leagues), but his current foot issue makes his playing time situation completely up in the air. So rather than predict a raw home run total, I’m sticking with a ratio so his fragile body doesn’t ruin this a day after I make this prediction.
None of the projection systems are forecasting anything better than a 16.1 AB/HR ratio, but after returning from injury last year, he posted a 10.9 AB/HR mark. He combines big power with an extreme fly ball rate, a better than average fly ball pull percentage, and calls the best park for left-handed dingers home. STAY HEALTHY!
Marwin Gonzalez is worthless in 12-team mixed leagues
Gonzalez was one of 2017’s biggest surprises, but he was one of the luckiest batters in baseball. His BABIP notched a career high, despite his xBABIP dropping to the second lowest mark of his career. Furthermore, his xHR/FB components were all just around the league average and suggests he was quite fortunate to have posted the actual HR/FB rate he did. Given the ridiculous depth on the Astros, a prolonged slump driven by BABIP and HR/FB rate drops could severely cut his playing time.
Bradley Zimmer outearns Byron Buxton
This one is more about my pessimism on Buxton than optimism on Zimmer. But it baffles me that Buxton’s ADP sits at 50. Last season, according to our dollar value calculator using the default settings for a 12-team mixed league, Buxton ranked just 137th overall! Obviously, we’re drafting using 2018 projections, not 2017 results. But this means that he has to perform significantly better than he had just to break even for his owners. Roster Resource is projecting him to hit 8th in the Twins lineup. You know how hard that makes it for him to contribute positive value in RBI and runs scored?
Zimmer, on the other hand, is going many, many rounds later at pick 195, but seems to be a carbon copy of Buxton, and bizarrely with a quarter of the hype. He’s expected to bat ninth in the Indians order, which is normally terrible, but it’s like no different than Buxton’s eight spot. Seriously, these guys are the same player:
| BB% | K% | Contact% | BABIP | HR/FB or AB/HR | PA/SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 – Buxton | 7.4% | 29.4% | 71.7% | 0.339 | 14.2% | 17.6 |
| 2017 – Zimmer | 7.8% | 29.8% | 70.4% | 0.328 | 13.1% | 18.4 |
| 2018 Steamer – Buxton | 7.5% | 27.9% | 0.329 | 25.8 | 27.1 | |
| 2018 Steamer – Zimmer | 9.0% | 30.2% | 0.331 | 30.5 | 22.5 |
The ADPs are obviously moot for this bold prediction, but it does describe my confusion. I do get what’s happening, of course, as Buxton was an elite prospect and Zimmer was merely a good one. But the hype on Buxton has gotten out of control, and there’s a much better chance that Zimmer outearns him than it seems fantasy owners realize.
Joey Gallo hits .240 with 45 homers
Boy, oh boy, a doublemint prediction all rolled into one. Predicting 45 homers for Gallo wouldn’t have been bold at all, but also batting .240?! That’s craaaaaazy. His highest batting average projection is .229, by the ever optimistic Fans, as a mid-to-high 30% strikeout rate and extreme fly ball tendency crushing BABIP nearly guarantees he’s closer to the Mendoza Line than .300.
But, there are a couple of things going on here:
- His xBABIP of .278 was meaningfully higher than his .250 actual mark
- That xBABIP reflects a lower than league average LD% and the highest FB% among qualified hitters — basically, you have to assume at least a bit of regression toward league average, which would help his BABIP
- He cut his strikeout rate to 34.9% in the second half, as his first half mark was inflated by a 42.5% May
- His 28.7% xHR/FB rate was the second highest mark among all hitters, behind Aaron Judge, and a smidgen ahead of Giancarlo Stanton
- In that second half with that marginally improved strikeout rate, his HR/FB rate surged from 25.6% to 37%, so he didn’t have to sacrifice home run power when cutting the strikeouts
Brandon Belt outearns Matt Olson
We perennially wait for the big Brandon Belt breakout that never happens, but in the meantime, he remains a very solid, and typically undervalued corner guy. AT&T Park kills his power, but he still flirts with the 20-homer plateau and may chip in a couple of steals.
On the other hand, Olson made a roaring debut last season with mammoth power numbers and fantasy owners have fallen in love. But here’s the problem — he’s going to kill you in batting average (a .248 xBABIP suggests little BABIP upside) and his home run power was so far ahead of what he had ever done in the minors, it’s impossible to believe it’s repeatable. His xHR/FB rate was a still strong 26%, though that represents a huge decline from the massive 41.4% mark he actually posted.
One of my bigger issues with Olson is that he might be lost plate appearances against left-handers, even though there’s no obvious platoon partner right now. If he becomes just a platoon player, then sure he might hit 30 homers, but that could come with a .230 average and a runs scored total that is essentially replacement level. At the very least, Belt is going to outperform Olson in average, runs scored, and steals, and that could be enough to win the battle.
Rhys Hoskins finishes as a top 10 overall hitter
Along with Gallo discussed above, Hoskins was another of my Pod’s Picks, as I love his combination of above average contact skills and elite power. It’s a rare combination, and the few hitters who do possess it are the best in baseball. His 7.1% SwStk% would have ranked him inside the top 30 out of 144 qualified hitters, if he maintained that mark over a full season. It’s not a fluke either, as he posted a 6.4% mark at Triple-A. Since both his BABIP and strikeout rate should improve, there’s much more batting average upside than you might think.
Obviously, he’s unlikely to post another 30% HR/FB rate, but he does call home a park that ranks sixth for right-handed home run park factor. Oh, and he’s actually in a great RBI spot, hitting behind two guys with strong OBPs, and also guys who don’t clear the bases often via the long ball. The best RBI spot is hitting behind guys who get on base at a high rate, have good speed, and don’t hit many home runs. It’s an almost ideal situation here for Hoskins.
Taijuan Walker outearns Robbie Ray
I purposely paired pitchers from the same team so we don’t have to argue about defensive support or ball park. And since I picked Diamondbacks hurlers, I don’t even have to guess the effects of the humidor!
Isn’t it amazing what a little BABIP and HR/FB rate luck can do to perception? Ray was virtually the exact same pitcher in 2017 as 2016, but because his fortunes turned, he’s suddenly getting picked inside the top 50. He still has control issues and allowed the highest Hard% among all qualified pitchers.
Walker had an outward breakout with his 3.49 ERA, but his SIERA was nearly a full run higher. However, he has posted a below league average BABIP over 500+ innings, despite playing in a home park that inflates BABIP. And given a high velocity fastball, you feel like there’s a strikeout rate surge coming at some point.
Sean Manaea strikes out 175 and posts a sub-3.80 ERA
Manaea was third on my list of 2018 strikeout rate surgers and he owns the strong changeup/slider combination to fuel that spike. He was always a big strikeout artist in the minors, backed by high SwStk% marks, and better health should bring better results. A pitcher friendly home park also helps.
Sean Newcomb outearns Jose Berrios
The price on Berrios is baffling to me, given how far we’ve come in evaluating pitchers. That shiny 3.89 ERA isn’t real, as it came paired with a 4.29 SIERA, and only a tiny 9% HR/FB rate prevented it from jumping above 4.00. The word on the street is that his stuff is electric, but is it really? His four-seamer was good, yes, but the rest of his repertoire was either nothing special or stunk. The curve was his best swing and miss pitch, and that generated just a 13.5% SwStk%, while his infrequently used changeup induced just a 7.3% SwStk%. So while his stuff might look good, it surely isn’t getting the whiffs that quality stuff is supposed to get. Here’s another example of a former top prospect seemingly figuring it all out, causing his price to spiral out of control.
If only Newcomb could figure out some control, he would be a star! But seriously, we know he has the strikeout ability thanks to a curve, changeup, and slider that all generated SwStk% in the mid or high teens to go along with an effective fastball. Control is sometimes the last skill to arrive in young pitchers, so if he could get that walk rate down to just 10%, which would still below well worse than the league average, a sub-4.00 ERA is his for the taking.
I’m betting on the National League pitcher whose strikeout rate I’m more confident in over the American Leaguer whose stuff hasn’t actually led to a whole lot of swings and misses.
Corey Knebel records 25 or fewer saves
Knebel was one of last year’s examples of the benefits of the “don’t pay for saves” mantra, but I’m betting that his hurrah only lasts that one season. While he generally deserved that mammoth strikeout rate last year, it was fueled entirely by an insane 16% SwStk% by his fastball. What are the odds he does that again?! His curve ball was pretty terrible, generating just a 9.4% SwStk%, so he just lives and dies by that fastball. If his fastball is more like 2015 and 2016, his strikeout rate drops back below 30%. Then he loses his job. Why? Because his control is atrocious. A string of high walk outings and blown saves as a result could quickly lose him the job just as fast as he gained it last year.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I almost always disagree with you on *almost* everything, but as a Brandon Belt, Sean Newcomb, and Taijuan Walker owner…I love this.
Hmmm…I read this as:
“Mike, I think you’re an idiot most of the time, but since these predictions fit within my rigid set of opinions, I’m on board!”
Useful.
Is 9th in the batting order better for steals than 8th?
I just took a look at the numbers myself! As far as I can tell, last year the steals were about the same for each spot in the batting order, with 9th hitters seeing a bit of a higher success rate and the two positions seeing nearly identical “steal rates” (which I judged roughly as the number of steals divided by total combined singles and walks).
Interesting, for the past five years total 9th place hitters saw SIGNIFICANTLY higher steal rates, even as the two places in the order had nearly identical success rates. So it seems that perhaps teams are doing this less, or maybe last year’s figures were a smaller sample fluke.
In conclusion: all else being equal, it seems batting 9th has the potential for greater steals than batting 8th, but it is not set in stone.
P.S. All the data I looked at was for the AL.
Mike, aside from premium starter fastball velocity and the humidor, what else do you like in Walker’s profile that could lead to tangible growth?
I honestly don’t even love him, as it was more of a “Robbie Ray is wildly overvalued” statement than any sort of fandom for Walker. I also felt it was a good idea to pick another Diamondbacks pitcher so we don’t need to guess about the humidor. Corbin would have been another battlemate, but I like Walker better.
Surely Godley at his price could be the best value of all them DBack hurlers? He would seem like a better choice than Walker, broke out last year and we still aren’t having to pay for it.
Agreed, I like Godley better than Walker, BUT, everyone else does too! So in the interest of boldness, Walker was the much more appropriate guy to battle Ray. Is Godley over Ray really that bold? I didn’t think so.
See your point. Could’ve just said Godley outperforms Ray by __ places in SP ranks though! Anyway liked the list.
Swfcdan, please stop the micro-managing. Yes, the writer could’ve written the piece with your arguably unimaginative comparison instead but he didn’t. Let it go.
It would’ve been a better suggestion. What the heck is wrong with suggesting it, then you get people who complain about that. That is wasting time.
“It would’ve been a better suggestion”
That’s whats wrong with it. In your opinion, it’s better. But:
1) this is just for fun
2) its an opinion, you state as fact.
3) it changes the entire prediction, write your own 10 bold predictions instead. There IS a community portion of this website…
Balls I had no idea about Buxton/Zimmer being so similar. Your bold predictions are especially fun because while “bold” based on ADP you convince me they’re all so reasonable through thoughtful analysis.
That’s because they’re not similar. Buxton is improving off an elite skill base. Zimmer still has a long way to go in his awful approach and less ability to begin with. One guy was the best prospect straight out of high school; the other a college draftee w/ a weak hit tool.
If you’re allowed to look at Gallo’s second half, you’re allowed to look at Buxton’s as well. I think that’s what people are drafting on.
Buxton’s walk rate dropped by like 50%, small improvement in K%. Unsustainable HR/FB rate and BABIP of 20% and .378. Fantasy owners are dreaming if they think he could do that for a full season. I didn’t bother to look at his second half, and normally I don’t because they have no predictive value. The only reason I did so for Gallo is because I had remembered reading someone else bullish on him having noted his improved second half, so figured I’d include it.
Ah, nothing like statistical analysis that is devoid of any and all context. It’s like when many on Fangraphs were bearish on Xander Bogaerts after his rough 2014 season because they treated that year as a stable, steady lump, when is fact Bogaerts flourished for two months, lost his feel at the plate literally overnight for three months, and then fixed the issue for September. To the lazy full-season analyst, that was a season of failure, when to a wiser person it was an example of a very talented player meeting high expectations except when he suffered an unexplained mental slump in his game. In other words, as long as Bogaerts avoided another such issue, he was GUARANTEED to be good, whereas many people were treating him as a disappointment who needed to change his typical game.
Well, I remember seeing (on Fangraphs, I believe!) that Buxton’s mid-season 2017 breakout coincided with him completely overhauling his timing mechanism/leg kick at the plate. That is the kind of adjustment from a young player that DEMANDS paying attention to, because as long as the player can sustain the adjustment whatever came before it is rendered largely irrelevant. For a past example, look at how completely awful Jackie Bradley was, until he made a similar adjustment. He’s streaky now, but that’s worlds better than what he was.
This strikes me as rotographs on fangraphs crime. We’re informed, smartly, that Buxton changed something important to his game, and it seemed to have a clear positive impact. That suggests that we should focus on what he was AFTER the change. Then you write that it isn’t worth looking at such a split because “it has no predictive value”.
News flash: full season lines are as arbitrary as partial season (or multiple season) ones. The goal of player analysis should be to hold the stats up WITH the story of player context, not just the stats alone. Or, to put it another way, I have no doubt that NORMALLY you shouldn’t give more weight to a player’s second half over the first when judging “next year” FOR THE FULL POPULATION SAMPLING, but that doesn’t mean it holds no value for an INDIVIDUAL. If there is a REASON to believe that the “true” player going forward can be found in any given sampling, then yes, you should look at that sampling.
Just because I agree with half of these, doesn’t make them not-bold. It probably makes me bold.
Why why why would you own the same player in all five of your leagues??!?
When you invest your money do you put it all in one stock?
Out 6-8 weeks. Proof you should never put all of your eggs in one basket.
See, this is solid Rotographs here — pretty solid analytics to support just about everyone of these predictions.
Belt was performing like a top 100 player until somebody plunked him in the head. It kind of crazy how low he ranked this year (his value at ADP 300 is crazy) considering the nature of the injury. His 1B defense, elite on base skills and OF versatility should keep him getting at-bats, even when Posey plays first.
If there has ever been a candidate for the extra large batting helmet its him…and Joe Panik…
I hope you’re right about Gallo and Hoskins as I’ve completely jumped on board. In a shallow OBP league, I was able to grab Hoskins in the 4th and Gallo in the 7th, not to mention Conforto in the 17th (looks like he might be back mid April?)
Anyways, which of these bats do you like best to cover Conforto in a shallow OBP league:
Alonso, Morrison, Haniger, Kiermaier, C Davis, Suarez, Choo
I’m tempted to go with Alonso ad he’s already exhibited elite OBP skills, is having a monster spring and is going to a great park for left handed power.
Thanks Mike!
Well we know spring stats are meaningless (at least I thought we did), so Alonso having a monster one doesn’t matter. I don’t have dollar values for shallow OBP leagues, only for AL Tout Wars. That’s quite the options you have though. Since these are almost all AL guys, I could rank them as I had them valued in Tout:
Choo 23
gap
Kiermaier
Morrison
Alonso
Davis
Haniger
I have Kiermaier $4 less than Choo and $4 more than Haniger, with the middle guys essentially interchangeable.
You never want to put too much weight in spring training stats but it is worth noting that Gallo has a 19.6 K% this spring in 56 PA. Apparently he’s adopted a more contact oriented all-field approach this spring with two strikes.
“So rather than predict a raw home run total, I’m sticking with a ratio so his fragile body doesn’t ruin this a day after I make this prediction.”
Can you tell me tomorrow’s lottery numbers as well?
Well, that’s unfair. The AB/HR figure presented here would place Bird in the top 10 in baseball; that IS a bold prediction. He is predicted something about Bird’s power QUALITY, rather than tying his power prediction to a counting stat that is heavily influenced by playing time.
You’re not wrong that health matters, but rate stats are valuable too. The idea here is that he believe Bird will be HUGE when he is playing, for however long that is.
If Gallo does this, I’ll win my league. His projected .210 AVG is driving down my high AVG team to middle of the pack. If he can be not awful in that category, mercy.