MASH Report and Velocities (3/23/15)
• It is nice to see the American Journal of Sports Medicine was able to verify my concussion work with zero reference to my four-year-old study.
• Last week, I noticed Jon Lester (-1.5 mph) and Hyun Ryu (-2 mph) lost velocity compared to last season. Both are now dealing with arm issues.
Lester is dealing with a dead arm and it happens regularly with him.
“You can ask every pitcher; it’s an every-year thing for everybody. It’s nothing out of the ordinary.”
There is no pain or discomfort, according to Lester.
“It’s one of those things that you have to go through to understand,” he said. “It doesn’t feel like anything. It’s more total body deadness, and everybody puts a label on it as far as ‘dead arm.’ It’s nothing to be alarmed about. There’s no point in trying to grind through it right now. These games don’t mean anything. If it was April 15, it wouldn’t be an issue.”
Ryu is dealing with soreness in his throwing shoulder which will cause him to start the season on the DL.
Dodgers starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu was sent to Los Angeles on Sunday to have his injured left shoulder examined by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, and manager Don Mattingly conceded that the left-hander will start the season on the disabled list.
Ryu attempted to play catch Sunday, four days after receiving a cortisone injection for the type of shoulder stiffness that sidelined him twice last year, but the discomfort returned.
Mattingly said Ryu reported immediate improvement from the injection but was barely able to lob the ball during a brief session of catch.
Just a reminder that pitchers don’t intentually throw slower without a reason.
• Anthony Rendon may miss some time to start the season.
Anthony Rendon's knee remains sore, esp. when hitting. Matt said plan is still rest. Rendon may run out of time to be ready for opening day.
— James Wagner (@ByJamesWagner) March 23, 2015
• Daniel Murphy may also miss some regular season games with a pulled hamstring.
• And it is close for Koji Uehara (hamstring) being ready for the season.
• It looks like Jorge de la Rosa will not be ready for the season’s start with a groin pull. More information will be coming aout in a few days.
It’s unclear if De La Rosa’s injury will keep him from starting the April 10 home opener against the Cubs. He is receiving treatment and expects to know more next week.
• Orioles pitching prospect, Hunter Harvey (#36 overall prospect) will miss four to six weeks with a fractured fibula.
• My favorite deep sleeper, Cory Rasmus, will miss 6-8 weeks with a core injury.
• Adam Jones gave Josmil Pinto possible brain damage after hitting him three times in the head with his backswings.
• Keep an eye on Mike Fiers. He left a game with shoulder soreness. The teams says he will be OK, but wait to see if he throws again.
• Chase Utley’s ankle just won’t seem to heal.
Velocity Readings
Velocity is one of the few spring training stats which is extremely reliable which Mike Fast (now with the Astros) found few years back at Baseball-Prospectus. Here are some velocities of interest comparing spring training values to last year’s average.
From Pitchf/x stadium (homes of Royals, Rangers, Padres and Mariners). The values are mph increases or decreases.
Gainers
Zach McAllister +3 (Moving to bullpen)
Tanner Scheppers +2 (Moving back to bullpen)
Derek Holland +1.5 (back to 2013 levels)
Neftali Feliz +1.5
Adam Ottavino +1
Same
Jason Vargas
Jordan Lyles
Rex Brothers
Carlos Carrasco
T.J. House
Taijuan Walker
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Quackenbush
Neftali Feliz
Roenis Elias
Brandon Morrow
Randall Delgado
Odrisamer Despaigne
Kyle Lohse
Yovani Gallardo
Iffy
Ryan Madson -1 (Down 1 mph from 2011 time in the bullpen)
Colby Lewis -1
Losers
James Paxton -1.5
Danny Farquhar -2
Luke Hochevar -2 (going on rehab assignment to start the season)
Wade Davis -2
Greg Holland -3
From Twitter searches
None
Players with Injuries Going into 2015
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Anyone seen how Goldschmidt is looking in ST, power-wise? Here’s hoping for same old Goldy.
Neftali is in the gainers and in the same group. Does that mean he’s had + and same readings on separate occasions? If so, which one was more recent?
Thanks.
Looks like the game on 20th was the game he had a higher velocity:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2015&month=3&day=20&pitchSel=491703.xml&game=gid_2015_03_20_seamlb_texmlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2015_03_20_seamlb_texmlb_1/
Thanks man.
I wonder if the Royals relievers are having a bit of a hangover effect from being used a ton in the post season.
Will Carroll stated this: https://twitter.com/injuryexpert/status/580096368024260608
Jeff, why do you have a heading that says “Velocity Readings from Injured Pitchers” when what follows is NOT a list of injured pitchers?
A mistake
Isn’t Greg Holland’s spring training velocity down 2 – 3 mph from his regular season velocity almost every year?
You mentioned that pitchers don’t intentionally throw slower without a reason. I read somewhere that Matt Harvey didn’t throw as hard during his last start because he was trying to locate his fastball more. Do you believe him or is there anything to worry about there?
Most are trying to throw how they would during the season and build up strength. If Harvey is letting, it is good to know if some numbers look low.
Just for perspective on Greg Holland Spring Training Velocity (From Brooks Baseball):
3/2011 – 93.18
3/2012 – 93.00
3/2013 – 94.27
3/2014 – 94.42
3/2015 – 93.62
Based on that record, maybe it’s too early to worry …
Ain’t nobody gonna take der velocity readin’s without dat der CON-TEXTUAL clues I reckon’
He seems to be the one example of a pitcher turning it up.
Are you irked that the American Journal of Sports Medicine study didn’t footnote your post on the subject? I would be, somewhat.
What are your early thoughts on Paxton versus Walker? Which would you prefer going into the 2015 season?
Paxton has the better glove and base running, but Walker has the better power potential. It’s a toss-up.
Walker right now. He has been looking good since his last few starts of last season.
Any update on Kipnis? Really hoping there is nothing from last year lingering into thus season.
Speaking of which, I posed the same question to Mike, but where do you fall right now on Kipnis versus Betts? I saw on the top 300, you have Betts one ahead of Kipnis. Would Betts’ hot spring and Kipnis’ potential injury widen that gap? I have the #80 pick in a upcoming draft, and will likely have my pick of Kipnis/Betts/Pedroia/Wong/Dozier. Its a Yahoo league so Betts has 2B eligibility.
Betts has more talent than Kipnis (IMO). They playing time issues in BOS are the only item I worry about. If it is a Daily lineup league, Betts may be the choice.
I should put some eyes on Kipnis
Thanks Jeff!
Any concern on Paxton’s velocity drop? Or is he just recovering from his forearms injury?
Lester’s dead arm sounds like the classic case of overtraining.
Jeff, re: Profar.
Has there has ever been a young position player that lost 2 consecutive seasons to injury, and then returned to play at a high level?
I tried to think of any, and Bobby Tolan was the only one that came to mind (I’m old). But he only missed one season. (and while he had a solid year after returning, he never quite made it back to his prior level)