MASH Report (9/3/13)

September has started and that means tracking disabled players should becomes easier since no team puts players on it with the expanded rosters. Instead of taking the easy route, I am going to try to keep a list of players who would probably be on the DL if teams still had to use it. I will stay on the conservative side and list players who may be healthy. If they just DH or PH, I will still list them.

• A couple of interesting injury articles were recently published. First, the Pioneer Press examined changes in catcher masks and if they are behind the increase in catcher concussions. Also, Dustin Palmateer of Baseball Prospectus looked at forecasting pitcher injuries by their college pitch load. Short answer, he found no correlation.

• Matt Moore is going to start to today after coming off the DL. His velocity looks to be in the low 90s (source).

He hit 96 mph once in the next inning, but mostly stayed in the low-90s while mixing in plenty of changeups to reestablish his confidence in the pitch that had first brought on the discomfort.

These value are about identical to his values before going on the DL. Additionally, his 2013 velocity was down almost 2 mph from 2012. I don’t expect a huge turnaround from him and expect his ERA to be around 4.00.

• The Pirates have announced they will be bringing Wandy Rodriguez back as a possible reliever. Also, the Cubs will use Scott Baker in the bullpen if he returns.

DL Returnees

• Neftali Feliz’s average fastball velocity wasn’t great, coming in at 94.3 mph. This value is 0.4 mph less than he threw in 2012 as starter and 2 mph less than 2011 as a reliever.

It will be interesting to see where the previous fireballer’s talent level stabilizes.

• Nick Tepesch’s velocity looked good.

• As did Bartolo Colon’s

• Steve Delabar’s looked good also.

• And finally, so does Dustin McGowan’s

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with at least 100 PA in 2013 and 400 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Name	HURT	PA (2010 to 2012)	PA (2013)	ISO_diff
B.J. Upton	193	1883	400	-0.091
Seth Smith	182	1372	378	-0.051
Chris Iannetta	143	902	335	-0.032
Albert Pujols	140	2021	443	-0.052
Cesar Izturis	140	719	129	-0.06
Josh Willingham	133	1629	403	-0.099
Chris Johnson	131	1295	459	-0.033
Melky Cabrera	120	1716	372	-0.089
Alex Avila	120	1318	308	-0.005
Lance Berkman	118	1165	286	-0.064
Miguel Montero	116	1457	397	-0.039
Aramis Ramirez	116	1763	281	-0.072
Paul Konerko	108	1868	436	-0.073
Mark Kotsay	100	770	146	-0.061
Vernon Wells	97	1437	410	-0.046
Giancarlo Stanton	97	1498	401	-0.094
Jose Reyes	97	1905	312	-0.017
John Jaso	97	1038	249	-0.079
Nick Markakis	96	1896	596	-0.085
Justin Turner	96	690	177	-0.049
Kevin Youkilis	96	1461	118	-0.05
Matt Kemp	94	1806	251	-0.117
Starlin Castro	92	1912	598	-0.046
Ryan Roberts	91	1115	173	0.004
Brandon Inge	91	1214	110	-0.108

Chris Johnson is still showing up on the list. After searching the interwebs, I can’t find if he changed his plate approach or is hurt. I do know the following. His ISO (.137) is over 20 points lower than where his projections had him (~.160 ISO). His Contact% is at a 3-year-low (75% vs 78% and 76%). His Speed Score is non-existent at 1.0.

The signs of an are exist, but it is not showing up in his AVG. As long as he keeps his AVG near .300, I see no reason for him to go on the D.L.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Official List

Unofficial September List