MASH Report (8/12/13)
In my last MASH Report, I looked at the full season Zone% (Pitchf/x) laggards and found no additional useful information. Today, I have two new Zone% leaderboards, one for June, July and August and one for just July and August. A few more interesting name show up. Additionally, a bit more injury information was available to report on over the last few days.
• Hanley Ramirez stated he will likely play with a shoulder injury for the rest of the season (source).
Ramirez jammed his right shoulder last Sunday. He completed a full workout Sunday but said he still felt discomfort when extending his right arm on his swing and when throwing to first base … “I’m just worried if I am going to keep feeling that every time I throw the ball,” he said. “If I have to play like that, I’ll play.” … Ramirez said the Dodgers’ medical staff has assured him the condition should improve over time. Indeed, Ramirez said, “I’m getting better every day.”
Owners should expect a drop off in production for a few weeks and maybe lasting until the end of the season. The main drop in production will likely be in the power department.
• Neftali Feliz is on the comeback trail with his velocity currently on the low side (source)
He gave up a single and walked two batters over his 22-pitch outing that had him sitting in the 91-94 mph range with his fastball. He will make another rehab appearance with the Express on Saturday.
The 91-94 mph range is about where Feliz sat in his first two rehab appearances in the rookie league in Arizona, and his velocity is likely to get into the 94-96 mph range by the time he’s ready. It probably won’t rise into the high-90s or occasionally touch 100 mph, as it did in the past.
“The velo probably won’t come back like that until next year, which is normal,” Comstock said. “But he still has enough to get outs by sitting in the 94-96 range.”
The lower velocity could be offset, however, by Feliz rediscovering a feel for his changeup by throwing it more often during the early parts of his rehab. He still has a slider in his repertoire, too.
When Feliz was starting, his fastball ranged between 91 and 98 mph with the average set at 95 mph. If Feliz does comeback to pitch in the majors, expect his production to suffer.
• Jonathan Broxton’s post DL fastball average fastball velocity is up compared to earlier in the season.
Additionally, his Zone% before going on the DL, was under 45%. Since he has returned, his Zone% is over 55% for each of his relief appearances.
• Ryan Vogelsong’s velocity is at career low of 88 mph.
Additionally in his first start back, less than 40% of his pitches found the strike zone. I would stay away from starting him for now.
• Jon Niese’s velocity looked fine in first start back.
Additionally, his release points were all over the place in the return start.
I noted he had this problem back in June. He is another pitcher I would just currently stay away from.
Zone% Laggards
June, July and August Laggards (min 500 pitches or ~5 to 6 starts)
| Pitcher | Zone% |
| Jason Marquis | 37.5% |
| Lucas Harrell | 40.1% |
| Jeff Locke | 40.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | 40.7% |
| Craig Stammen | 41.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | 41.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | 42.5% |
| Jake Westbrook | 42.5% |
| Tanner Scheppers | 42.7% |
| Wily Peralta | 42.9% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 43.4% |
| Yoervis Medina | 43.9% |
| Joe Saunders | 43.9% |
| Tyson Ross | 44.1% |
| Eric Stults | 44.2% |
| Adam Warren | 44.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | 44.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | 44.7% |
| Brian Duensing | 44.8% |
| Tony Watson | 44.9% |
| Josh Johnson | 45.0% |
| Luis Mendoza | 45.1% |
| Preston Claiborne | 45.1% |
| Jerome Williams | 45.3% |
| Jose Cisnero | 45.3% |
| Zack Greinke | 45.4% |
| Scott Feldman | 45.4% |
| Esmil Rogers | 45.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 45.5% |
| Tim Hudson | 45.5% |
July and August Laggards (min 400 pitches or ~4 to 5 starts)
| Lucas Harrell | 39.6% |
| Jeff Locke | 40.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | 40.7% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 41.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | 41.8% |
| Wily Peralta | 42.5% |
| Tyson Ross | 42.6% |
| Scott Feldman | 43.6% |
| Jerome Williams | 43.8% |
| Zack Greinke | 44.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 44.3% |
| Wade Miley | 44.4% |
| Ricky Nolasco | 44.4% |
| Josh Johnson | 44.6% |
| Jake Westbrook | 44.8% |
| Tim Hudson | 44.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 44.9% |
| Joe Blanton | 44.9% |
| Ivan Nova | 45.0% |
| Eric Stults | 45.0% |
| Garrett Richards | 45.1% |
| Jacob Turner | 45.7% |
| Tim Lincecum | 45.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | 45.7% |
| Esmil Rogers | 45.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | 46.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | 46.1% |
| Joe Saunders | 46.2% |
| Tyler Chatwood | 46.4% |
| Felix Hernandez | 46.5% |
• A few names continue to show up on the leader boards (Harrell, Locke, Liriano, etc), but a few other names show up.
• Jacob Turner has never posted a good Zone%, but it has been horrible in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Over the same 5 starts, his velocity is down.
His results are also down in those 5 games with an ERA of 4.13 and 1.8 K/BB. In his earlier starts this season, his ERA was 2.33 and a 2.2 K/BB. He is struggling more and more as the season has gone on.
• Wade Miley’s Zone% has been falling over his last few starts.
Additionally, his velocity is down a bit.
I would keep an eye on him and hope he reverses the trend.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Feliz’s problems get worse:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/12/neftali-felizs-rehab-on-hold-due-to-more-arm-problems/