MASH Report (7/23/15) With Specific Injury Return Times

• Here is a starting point for a dataset I have wanted to put together for a while, the return times for various injuries. I started with just a few requests today, but if you want more, please feel free request more in the comments.

Injury Average Day Max days Min Day Standard Dev Samples
Fractured Wrist 63 185 13 40 55
Broken Wrist 77 182 25 46 10
Fractured Finger 39 103 6 23 46
Plantar Faciitis 43 133 15 33 11
Strained Hamstring 30 178 4 20 177
Strained Oblique (pitchers) 32 86 6 16 43
Strained Oblique (hitters) 29 100 7 17 104
Sprain/Torn/Dislocated Finger 43 101 10 22 29

• An interesting article by BelievePerform summarizes from several sources the effects of birth date on athletic success.

In summary, the relative age effect is present in a wide range of elite sports and sheds light on the flaws of many talent identification systems. Due to the short-term approach to success in elite sports, coaches select players that will win them games in the immediate future. This means selecting players who are physically and emotionally more mature. The implications of this process will lead to a big pool of talent being overlook and misrepresented.

Here are the number for players who have played in the majors this season who were born in a specific month:

Month: Number of MLB Players
January: 97
February: 92
March: 96
April: 95
May: 85
June: 90
July: 95
August: 119
September: 113
October: 107
November: 98
December: 99

The number of MLB players born in August to October is 339 while the number from May to July is 270 (25% more).

Steve Pearce in on the DL with a strained oblique which has bothered him for a while.

• While not officially on the DL yet, it looks like David Freese will go on the DL later today with a fractured finger.

Jason Vargas came off the DL, threw a few innings and torn his UCL in his elbow. Now he is looking at Tommy John surgery and probably not seeing MLB action until 2017.

Jordy Mercer will be out at least 6 weeks with a sprained knee and leg contusion.

Upon examination Monday in Pittsburgh by the club’s medical staff, Mercer was diagnosed with a sprain of the medial collateral ligament in the left knee, and a lower leg contusion.

“That’s the way we look at it,” manager Clint Hurdle said. “One injury turned out to be a contusion that is already feeling better. And for the Grade 2 sprain to be nonsurgical — yeah, I think we caught a break.”

Manny Parra is on the DL with a strained elbow. It seems like he would not go on the DL expect the Reds don’t want just an 8-man bullpen with a double header on the horizon.

• The All-Star break didn’t help Adrian Beltre recover from his injured thumb.

Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre was quite succinct and candid when discussing his left thumb before Monday’s game with the Rockies.

He was asked if the four-day All-Star break helped at all.

“Not one bit,” Beltre said.

He was asked if he is doing the right thing by playing through the injury.

“Good question,” Beltre said. “I don’t have an answer. It’s a good question with many answers, but I don’t have one.”

Great, expect the low production to continue.

Velocity Readings

Tony Cingrani’s velocity is down compared to before he went on the DL.

Matt Garza’s velocity is fine.

Kris Medlen’s average fastball velocity is within the range before he had TJS. At the time he was a starter and now is throwing out of the bullpen, so the velocity could actually be down.

Players on the DL in 2015

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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mymaus
9 years ago

Great link to an article on Springer. It sounds really positive about how effective he’ll be when he gets back. Believe it or not I only need him to perform starting 9/9 for my H2H playoffs. I can cruise to the playoffs without him. Based on your experience and research, do you think there’s good chance he’ll be at least 95% by then?

mymaus
9 years ago
Reply to  mymaus

I’d love to here your thoughts on the prognosis for Werth and Rendon too.

mymaus
9 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

WOW! Thanks! What terrific answers. Love the tip about being able to pull the ball at all. He was at 34% pull when he went down, so something close to 30% would be OK? I don’t suppose I can find how he does in his eventual minor league rehab anywhere.