The Daily Grind: Ottoneu Conundrum, Godley, Tillman

Agenda

1. Ottoneu Conundrum
2. Daily DFS – Price, Godley
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, DeSclafani, Byrd, Gose
5. Factor Grid

1. Ottoneu Conundrum

Ottoneu is a fantasy platform hosted by FanGraphs. For the purposes of keeping this brief, I’m going to assume you know certain details about the format that you may not actually know. Feel free to ask questions in the comments.

Last year, I inherited a team from Summer Anne Burton in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. The team had finished deep in last place and lacked keeper talent. After a year of overhauling the roster, I’m now in position to win the league. The standings lists Chad Young as two points ahead of me, but I have 40 innings in hand. Another team is quietly neck-and-neck with us because he has about 100 innings in hand. Two other owners are close enough to contention to put pressure on us.

My weakest position is middle infield. Soon, Anthony Rendon will return to bolster a group that includes Justin Turner, Danny Espinosa, Jonathan Schoop, Luis Valbuena, Jimmy Rollins, and Wilmer Flores. I also own a $5 George Springer who isn’t doing anything for me at the moment. I let it be known that I’d be open to swapping Springer to solve my infield problem.

I have one offer on the table for Springer that includes a stud middle infielder under $20, a cheap closer, and a pricey platoon veteran. Two of the players would be keepers. If/when Springer returns, he replaces my platoon of Brandon Moss, Rajai Davis, and Melky Cabrera. He’s a much more modest upgrade than I’d receive from the middle infielder.

In a vacuum, I’d take the deal. However, my roster is financially constrained. Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Clayton Kershaw combine to cost about $150 of the $400 budget. I’d like to keep them. That means I need big value assets like Springer and $3 Charlie Blackmon. If I take the deal, I’ll improve this season. I’ll also be forced to trade Kershaw or Trout over the offseason.

So, what to do? I estimate the net gain from the swap is between 100 and 150 points. The league winner generally finishes with around 19,000 points. At this point, two to five owners could finish within 800 points of first place. The chance that this deal is the difference between winning and losing is greater than zero. It may also have no effect on the outcome. And here’s the hard question – at what point does it become worthwhile to hamstring my 2016 team to win this year?

2. Daily DFS – Price, Godley

Early: There are four early games. Do yourself a favor and make budget for David Price on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it’s at least plausible to gamble on Ervin Santana or Garrett Richards. None of the pitchers are liable to implode, but R.A. Dickey is the weakest of the bunch

Late: The late slate is comprised of seven games headlined by a Clayton Kershaw start. If I have time to build a lineup, I’ll be going all-in against Diamondbacks spot starter Zach Godley. The right-hander’s success has come in Single-A. A three start audition at Double-A did not go well – 5.14 ERA, 5.14 K/9, 3.86 BB/9. The Brewers lineup features a couple expensive studs like Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez. Additionally, Adam Lind, Gerardo Parra, and Scooter Gennett will have the platoon advantage.

Stack Targets: Dickey, Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Miley

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We only have 17 names to work with today. Really it’s 14 because Drew Hutchison has been scratched from his start. Here are the most meaningful…

Tyler Moore v Francisco Liriano
Derek Dietrich v Tyson Ross
Nick Castellanos v Hisashi Iwakuma
Chris Carter v Wade Miley
Jose Abreu, Adam LaRoche, Adam Eaton, and Geovany Soto v Trevor Bauer

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, DeSclafani, Byrd, Gose

Pitchers to Start: Chris Tillman has been in the exploit column all season. However, he’s worth considering at Tropicana Field tomorrow. In his last four starts, Tillman has a 1.40 ERA (1.55 FIP) with 24 strikeouts and three walks in 25.2 innings. He’s still a risky play, but the recent performance suggests that his command has improved. The start prior to this four game streak was a six run, 1.1 inning clunker.

Also consider: Erasmo Ramirez, Patrick Corbin, Nick Tropeano

Pitchers to Exploit: Anthony DeSclafani visits Coors Field. As a changeup specialist, he’s not automatically doomed to struggle. It’s possible that he’ll keep the Rockies off balance. However, nearly all pitchers perform worse at Coors. I’m expect multiple extra base hits.

Also consider: Jerome Williams, Jeff Locke, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Scott Feldman, Danny Duffy, Manny Banuelos, Eddie Butler, Colby Lewis,

Hitters (power): Marlon Byrd is a solid pickup for the rest of the week. He’s playing at Coors Field. Byrd has continued to exhibit excellent power, batting .247/.299/.465. Obviously there are some downsides, but that’s why he’s on the waiver wire. He has a .277 BABIP this season after posting a .341 or better rate over the last two seasons. His batted ball data shows a fairly high soft contact rate, so it’s hard to tell where his BABIP should land.

Also consider: Derek Dietrich, Yonder Alonso, Seth Smith, Khris Davis, Ben Paulsen, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, David DeJesus, Scott Van Slyke, Chris Coghlan, Wilson Ramos

Hitters (speed): Anthony Gose doesn’t actually have a good matchup against Rick Porcello. They’re both ground ball guys which favors the pitcher. However, there aren’t many freely available speed plays for tomorrow.

I do have a new guy to add to the speed club, I just have to wait for him to face somebody easier than Corey Kluber.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Danny Espinosa

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s a dry day full of pitcher friendly parks.

The Link.

This post is about fantasy baseball and not Carson Cistulli’s handlebar mustache. Those looking for Cistulli mustache analysis should look for a Fringe Five post.