MASH Report (7/13/15)
• Well, I am back from my vacation and ready to dive into some injury news. I may be brief on some players as some news on them is almost two weeks old. Make sure to check the spreadsheet for the latest information. Today, I will be heavy on belated news and on Thursday, I will run some my PAIN and HURT reports since not as many players expect to get hurt over the All-Star break.
• Steven Matz will be out for over a month with a torn lat muscle. He will not throw at all for three weeks and then will need to build up his strength.
Matz will miss his scheduled start Sunday against the D-backs and refrain from throwing for three weeks.
It may take him another 3 weeks to get back up to speed. Don’t be surprised if it is late August or early September when he finally rejoins the Mets.
• Alex Gordon could miss from eight weeks to the entire season. Eight weeks puts him at mid-September and any setback may have him missing the rest of the regular season.
• Jason Grilli will miss all of this season, but plans on being ready for the beginning of next season.
Grilli will return to Atlanta with the Braves on Sunday night and meet with doctors on Monday morning. The 38-year-old pitcher will undergo surgery later this week and then begin the latest of his comebacks with the utmost confidence he will be with the Braves at the start of next year’s Spring Training.
I would not keep him around for Saves. A rehabbing 39-year-old pitcher is going to be a set-up … at best.
• Clay Buchholz is on the DL with a strained elbow.
“Typically when you’ve got a ligament damage, there’s been some deterioration or decreased strength that ends up putting more stress on the ligament, and that’s when the ligament ends up getting damaged,” said Farrell. “To me, it sounds like this has been caught early on where the changes have only been shown in that flexor muscle not the ligament, so Clay’s health was first and foremost in this. Talking with him [Friday] night after the MRI, he was certainly relieved, but still we’ve got to take the necessary steps to let this calm down and rebuild this.”
This is probably the best outcome considering the symptoms.
• Denard Span will take two weeks off in the hopes his back will get better
“It’s good news,” Williams said before Friday’s series opener in Baltimore. “The specialist he saw [found] nothing alarming, which is good.”
The Nationals believe the two abdominal surgeries Span underwent in early spring and the lack of Spring Training as a result may be a cause for the back problems.
“[We] gave him another set of exercises to further his strength,” Williams said. “So he’ll start that pro-cess and be back quickly.”
A few signs point to his back bothering him before the time off. His Speed Score is down to a career low of 5.3. Also, he no bunt hits (31% career value).
• Asdrubal Cabrera is out with a strained hamstring. No timeline has been given for a return, but I would count on him missing at least three weeks.
• Jesse Hahn will be out with a strained elbow, but there seems to be no structural damage to it.
Hahn, 25, left the team Thursday to return to the Bay Area for an MRI, which revealed no structural damage to his sore right elbow — welcoming news to a pitcher who already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010.
• Adrian Beltre has been struggling since coming off the DL with a strained thumb. My normal indicators for detecting an injury would be lower power and contact numbers. Here are the values before and after the injury.
Time Frame: ISO, Contact%
Before the DL: .150, 85%
After the DL: .103, 86%
He has a drop in power, but be wasn’t doing great before the injury. I am not sure how to value the 36-year-old as I could see him bounce back or stay down.
• Mark Teixeira talks about talking to the media about his wrist injury.
But the worst thing to be, in terms of perception, is a player who is struggling, hurt and candid. If you are struggling and hurt but look peo-ple in the eye and say you feel fine, you trade credibility for perceived toughness. If you are struggling and hurt and admit that the pain affects you, you are labeled an excuse-maker.
At 35, Teixeira understands this. He is thriving again, a strong All-Star candidate for the first-place Yankees, and nobody criticizes him anymore. A year ago, after wrist surgery the previous summer, he was a shell of himself and an easy target.
“Any time I tried to be a little bit honest and say that I wasn’t feeling well, I got hammered, because I guess you’re not supposed to tell the truth when people want you to lie,” Teixeira said on Saturday after help-ing the Yankees beat Tampa Bay, 3-2.
A friendly reminder why players will lie about their injuries.
• A decent article on Matt Harvey’s and John Smoltz’s Tommy John surgery recoveries.
• An article looking at Cano’s struggles and why a stomach ailment may be sapping his strength.
Other players placed on the DL since last MASH Report.
Carlos Beltran
Miguel Cabrera
Charlie Furbush
Matt Garza
Alex Gordon
Nick Hagadone
Mitchell Harris
Josh Harrison
Jon Jay
Ryan Pressly
David Ross
Stephen Strasburg
Blake Swihart
Velocity Readings
• Aaron Barrett’s average fastball velocity is fine.
• Brandon Beachy’s velocity is down .7 mph from 2013 when he last pitched and 1.5 mph from 2012. I wouldn’t expect much from him this year.
• Andrew Bellatti’s velocity is fine.
• Chad Billingsley’s velocity is near his values from the past couple of seasons.
• Matt Cain’s velocity is fine. One note with Cain is his fastball is not getting the “rise” (or less sink) than it previously did. Don’t expect him to have his high early career pop-up rate.
• Patrick Corbin’s velocity is even to up. I think I would buy in now if he is available.
• Jose Fernandez’s velocity is fine
• Matt Harrison’s velocity is down 3 mph. Stay away until we figure out where is talent level is at.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s velocity is fine.
• Dan Jennings was at a three-year high.
• Jenrry Mejia’s velocity is down for now about 1 mph.
• Andrew Miller’s velocity is fine.
• Matt Moore’s velocity is in line with pre-TJS levels, but down ~4 from the velocity which made him a top prospect.
• Mike Morin’s velocity has been ticking up since coming off the DL.
• Jake Odorizzi’s velocity is fine.
• Jake Peavy’s velocity is in line with the past few seasons.
• Dale Thayer’s velocity is on the low side.
Players on the DL in 2015
The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
how’s Mr. Verlander looking these days?
I don’t think he is hurt, I just think he is a bad pitcher right now who needs to come up with a different arsenal to get hitters out. He is not going to get the same results with a slower fastball.
In a h2h league with a playoff system, its important to have a strong team at the end of the year. With this in mind would you hold onto both Buchholz and Matz as long as the news doesn’t get worse?
Matz worries me a bit as it may be at least a month and a half until he gets back. Buchholz should be fine. I think he may have mystery injury to just get a break over the All-Star weekend.
How does Yordano Ventura’s velocity look?
Sorry for missing him, but it is up compared to earlier in the season:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=11855&position=P&pitch=FA
Seems kind of weird to write off Beachy after one start. Look at the bump in velocity Corbin had between his first and second starts back from TJ. Unless it’s the fact that it’s his second procedure that’s scaring you away.
Pitchers usually see a bounce to even in velocity when they come back from TJS. He is down. He didn’t light the world on fire when he was at 90 mph, not alone less
It has been two seasons since he pitched previously and pitchers struggle with command normally with TJS.
I just can’t find any thing positive to hang my hat on.
Any way to measure how Ellsbury’s legs are doing now that he’s back?
You can watch him and do some times-to-1B to see if they match up. And make sure he doesn’t grimace at the end of the sprint.
Considering Iwakuma’s velocity is back up to his normal levels, is he someone who could have a nice second half? Shoulder injuries scare me and the results in his first game were pretty bad, but the flipside of that is he was very good in his second start.
Are you still scared off by the shoulder injury thing or are you grabbing any shares where you can considering his price should be pretty depressed right now considering the bad results and injury plagued first half?
I would buy in if he is available. I play in deep leagues where he is universally owned, but would gladly pick him up.
The shoulder injury could come back, so don’t invest too much. Keep it low risk and hope for some reward.
Any Corey Dickerson insight…. he is KILLING me between where I took him and clogging a bench spot all year. I wish they would just declare him healthy or put him under the knife and remove all of this uncertainty.
Also in regards to Iwakuma…. he has hardly been the Kuma of old. Is this father time catching up to him or are u a buyer RoS?
Thanks a lot.
Dickerson has plantar fasciitis which could linger for while (see Utley and Pujols). Move on if you feel like it, but you can’t get mad at yourself if he turns his season around.
Thanks JZ and sorry for not seeing the Kuma comment directly above mine
Am I a suitable replacement for owners who’ve lost Alex Gordon? Or am I going to hit all of 6 HRs this year and disappoint everyone?
I thought Rendon would come back in late July but now I see it might be early August. It seems like even if he does come back he wont be his true self. Is it time to cut losses and move on?