MASH Report (6/4/13) – Introducing Hidden Hitter Injury Finder

Today, I will concentrate on my newest tool, Position Players Playing Through Injury Finder, and report the fastball speeds of a few pitchers who recently returned from the disabled list.

• Injuries and their effects continue to be one of the more under-researched areas of baseball. As more and more DL data has become available, we can make better conclusions on the effects of injuries. Even with with 100% complete and accurate DL information, the times a hitter plays through injuries isn’t recorded. I have been trying to note these players and the stats which seem effected. I have found power, contact and speed (Duh) to decline as a results of an injury.

With this information, I decided to try to reverse-engineer an equation to find players with declining rates in speed, contact and power. The equation is not based off any extrapolated values, just what I thought would work (similar to the QB passer rating in the NFL). Also, I am not close to being done with it. I used previous season data and need to improve these values (weighting and regression). Also, I just can’t compare to preseason projections because they don’t calculate some values I look at like Contact%. Also, it can’t look at rookies at this point. Even with these limitations, the results have been encouraging.

Here is the top 25 leader board with players over 100 PA this season and at least 500 total PA in the previous three seasons.

Position Players Playing Through Injury Finder
(Do you have a better name, let me know and I will gladly use it)

Rank	Name	Injury Factor
1	B.J. Upton	318
2	Garrett Jones	181
3	Ike Davis	165
4	Nolan Reimold	154
5	John Jaso	133
6	Matt Kemp	119
7	Albert Pujols	118
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	115
9	Shane Victorino	111
10	Seth Smith	109
11	Colby Rasmus	97
12	Josh Willingham	89
13	Jonny Gomes	86
14	Josh Hamilton	79
15	Jeff Keppinger	79
16	Melky Cabrera	76
17	Andres Torres	76
18	Alex Avila	74
19	Carlos Quentin	73
20	Ryan Howard	72
21	Lance Berkman	71
22	Brandon Phillips	69
23	Dustin Pedroia	64
24	Juan Pierre	64
25	Adrian Gonzalez	63

Going through the list, here are some players working through injuries. I didn’t research each name, so I am am probably missing some reported injuries.

#1: B.J. Upton is coming off a back injury which bring down his production this season. Probably not to the level he is down, but still down.

#2: Garrett Jones had an oblique injury in spring training and he still may be feeling the effects.

#4: Nolan Reimold tried to play through a hamstring injury, but eventually he was forced on the D.L.

#5: John Jaso has been hampered by a shin injury all season.

#6: Matt Kemp’s shoulder may (or may not) be slowing him down.

#7: Albert Pujols has been playing through an injured left foot.

#9: Shane Victorino was dealing with a hamstring injury all season.

#12: Josh Willingham: Took a hit to his wrist in a series with Boston. Before the hit-by-pitch he was hitting .225/.405./.472. Since then, he is hitting .198/.300/.407.

#16 Melky Cabrera has dealt with hamstring irritation since the beginning of the season

#23: Dustin Pedroia is dealing in an injured thumb.

Right now an Injury Factor over 100 seems to be a decent indicator a player trying to play through an injury. I seems like Ike Davis’s struggles may be injury related.

I will be putting out a top ranking each MASH report so readers may know if an injury may be behind a player’s struggles. Also, I will continue to improve the process.

• Joba Chamberlain’s velocity is OK.

• Josh Fields’s velocity seems OK (SSS even for velocity)

• Franklin Morales’s velocity is not OK. It is down about 2-3 mph.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.