MASH Report (6/21/13) – Introducing SLOW

Today, I am mainly going to look at new metric, SLOW. It looks for hitters who are having problems hitting fastball in the strike zone. Besides SLOW, just a few other quick looks at Scott Kazmir, Jeanmar Gomez, Ryan Zimmerman and Felix Hernandez.

• I have read and heard many experts state a player has a slow bat and/or can’t catch up to fastballs. Finally, I have come up with an initial stab to see if a player is having problems hitting fastballs. To keep it easy, I am going to name it SLOW.

The basic parameters for the pitches examined are:
1. Pitches thrown into the heart of the plate (I don’t want to look at a chase rate)
2. Fastballs >=92 mph (looking for fastish fastballs)

I created the final metric using a weighted combination of:
1. Contact% (contact with the pitches)
2. Foul% (In play contact)
3. Pull angle on line drives and ground balls (is the hitter hitting the ball late)

The SLOW value may change a bit (I will probably put it on a 100 scale where 100 is league average) as I tweak it a bit here and there over the next couple of weeks. I have included two leader boards. One with the 2013 value. Another with players who have slowed the most from 2012 to 2013. Let me know if anything seems out of place.

Note: Like with PAIN and HURT, I will be taking recommendations for the letters in the acronym.

2013 SLOW Leaders (min 50 pitches in the heart of the strike zone)

Rank	Name	SLOW	Hand
1	Justin Upton	92	R
2	Ian Desmond	74	R
3	Adeiny Hechavarria	71	R
4	B.J. Upton	70	R
5	Jeff Francoeur	69	R
6	John Buck	69	R
7	Josh Donaldson	67	R
8	Dayan Viciedo	67	R
9	Ryan Raburn	67	R
10	Mike Morse	65	R
11	J.P. Arencibia	64	R
12	Starlin Castro	60	R
13	Marlon Byrd	60	R
14	Will Middlebrooks	60	R
15	Rick Ankiel	59	L
16	Carlos Gomez	59	R
17	Nick Hundley	59	R
18	Brandon Moss	57	L
19	Yoenis Cespedes	56	R
20	Drew Stubbs	56	R

Biggest Change in SLOW from 2012 to 2013 (min 50 pitches in the heart of the strike zone)

Rank	Name	Change in SLOW	Hand
1	Greg Dobbs	93	L
2	Justin Upton	62	R
3	Marlon Byrd	42	R
4	Will Middlebrooks	41	R
5	Dan Uggla	40	R
6	Nate Schierholtz	38	L
7	Devaris Gordon	38	L
8	Ryan Raburn	37	R
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	37	R
10	Mark Kotsay	31	L
11	Starlin Castro	31	R
12	Rick Ankiel	31	L
13	Brett Gardner	30	L
14	Freddy Galvis	29	L
15	Evan Longoria	29	R
16	Xavier Paul	27	L
17	Ian Desmond	26	R
18	Matt Dominguez	25	R
19	Ike Davis	24	L
20	Chase Utley	24	L

• The big name near the top of both lists is Justin Upton. While his early season heroics are well documented, signs show he struggles with fastballs. His K% is up from 19% in 2012 to 27% in 2013. Also, his Fastball Pitch Run Value (per 100 pitches) went from 0.92 in 2012 to -0.18 in 2013. Finally, his contact rate for any pitch in the strike zone (Z-Contact%) has gone from 87% in 2012 to 76% in 2013. Pitchers have noticed he can’t keep up and have increased the percentage of fastballs he is seeing this season.

• Scott Kazmir left a game last night with a hurt back. It looks like he didn’t pitch long with the ailment since his in and inter game fastball velocities were good.

Also, he was able to keep a consistent release point.

No signs of an injury yet, but I would be weary of his next start.

• Jeanmar Gomez returned from the DL and his fastball velocity looks fine

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (hitters 27-years-old or younger today, no PA min.):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through and injury.

Rank	Name	HURT	PA (2013)	PA (2010 – 2012)
1	B.J. Upton	169.2	270	1883
2	John Jaso	162.0	205	1038
3	Ike Davis	159.6	207	1334
4	Nolan Reimold	148.8	113	505
5	Seth Smith	138.0	264	1372
6	Matt Kemp	129.6	214	1806
7	Albert Pujols	128.4	344	2021
8	Alex Avila	127.2	188	1318
9	Chris Iannetta	124.8	226	902
10	Melky Cabrera	121.2	331	1716
11	Miguel Montero	116.4	286	1457
12	Jason Heyward	109.2	230	1730
13	Lance Berkman	106.8	268	1165
14	Garrett Jones	105.6	244	1647
15	Chris Johnson	105.6	222	1295
16	Robert Andino	100.8	85	1008
17	Justin Turner	100.8	102	690
18	Mark Teixeira	99.6	63	1920
19	Kevin Youkilis	96.0	118	1461
20	Cesar Izturis	94.8	83	719

• Ryan Zimmerman is dealing with some shoulder discomfort. He not being picked by HURT because he has played through pain in several recent season and his stats have been suppressed.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (pitchers 25-years-old or younger, 40 IP in 2012, 20 Ip in 2013)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Rank	Name	PAIN	IP (2013)	IP (2012)
1	Jason Marquis	216.5	94.2	127.2
2	Lucas Harrell	183.2	93.0	193.2
3	Jonathan Broxton	157.4	27.0	58.0
4	Alexi Ogando	146.0	55.1	66.0
5	Matt Moore	123.5	86.2	177.1
6	Francisco Liriano	115.1	54.2	156.2
7	Craig Stammen	109.3	40.0	88.1
8	John Axford	108.2	33.0	69.1
9	Esmil Rogers	101.1	54.2	78.2
10	Luis Mendoza	98.2	75.2	166.0
11	Ryan Dempster	95.5	95.1	173.0
12	Burke Badenhop	89.7	35.1	62.1
13	Carlos Villanueva	88.1	66.0	125.1
14	Jake Westbrook	86.7	57.0	174.2
15	Brett Myers	80.9	21.1	65.1
16	Scott Feldman	73.8	91.0	123.2
17	Felix Hernandez	69.2	116.2	232.0
18	Josh Johnson	68.7	45.0	191.1
19	Jim Johnson	67.0	38.0	68.2
20	Ivan Nova	65.7	29.1	170.1

• Felix Hernandez makes the watch list. Not a real surprise since his velocity and Zone% are down and his pace (with a lower WHIP) is up. He getting to the point in the pitcher aging curve when results get progressively worse and worse.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.