MASH Report (4/4/13)

Today, I am going to focus on some pitch speed data. While starters have pitched only once, pitch speeds stabilize quickly and the small amount of data is useful. It takes only a couple of pitches to get an idea of a pitcher’s speed.

While a loss in velocity can be a sign of injury, it can also mean a pitcher is in a transition period. All pitcher’s will lose speed over time at the rate of 0.25 mph per year. Pitchers are going to to have to adjust to throwing slower and slower if they want to stay in the league. It is a fact of life.

I believe there are two types of velocity loss. The first if a slow, gradual loss in speed. A pitcher losses a tick or there. They are able to make small adjustments as they go along. The second type is a decent (~1 or more mph) velocity drop, especially for high K pitchers. They are no longer able to pitch like they did previously and now need to make major adjustments. The transition time is when a pitcher pitches their worst. Finally they will adjust and steady out to a new production level.

Pitcher A
Before adjustment: 3.50 ERA pitcher
During adjustment: 5.00 ERA pitcher
After Adjustment: 4.00 ERA pitcher

I have not been able to prove this theory with a detailed study yet, but I have seen it in several pitchers such as A.J. Burnett. He transitioned from a 95 mph from a 92.5 mph fastball.

2007 and earlier: 3.76 ERA and 95 mph fastball
2008 to 2010: 4.42 ERA and fastball declines to 92.5 mph
2011 and later: 4.32 ERA and 92.5 MPH

When and if a pitcher eventually stabilizes is not known, but they really seem to struggle during the transition time compared to when they come out of the transition. Currently, Tim Lincecum seems to be such a pitcher.

Recent injury data

 • Some starters with noticeable drops in velocity over the first few days

CC Sabathia (92.4 to 89.9) – Sabathia is seeing the largest drop among the big name starters. It is an almost 2.5 MPH drop and Bill Petti went into details a couple days ago.

Felix Hernandez (92.4 to 91.2 mph) – Felix seems to continue his slow drop in velocity which saw him at 95.5 mph in 2007. His average velocity has dropped every year from then on. He seems to be able to adjust as he goes along.

Roy Halladay – (90.5 to 89.6 mph) – Halladay’s issues were well documented in spring training and the results continue onto the regular season. Besides the drop in velocity, his release point has dropped about half a foot from last season.

Ervin Santana – (91.7 to 90.1 mph) – He really struggled in his first start with a drop in velocity over each of the last 3 years.

 • Mark Teixeira is aiming for a May 1st return. He may be available in a few shallow leagues (71% ownership at Yahoo!).

 • Shaun Marcum had a setback with his hopes of returning soon.

 • Ryan Ludwick is out at least 3 months after shoulder surgery. Derrick Robinson will take his place on the Reds.

 • Stephen Drew (concussion) may be ready to play on Monday.

 • Carl Crawford sat out the 2nd and 3rd game of the season after having TJS last year. I would just stay away from Crawford if at all possible.

Correction. I based the following on a report he was too hurt to play. He is playing a hitting over .500.

Player Return Timetables

Name	Injury	Injury/Surgery Date	Early Return Date	Later Return date	Status	Source(s)
Tony Abreu (*)	Quad Strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Henderson Alvarez (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Scott Baker (**)	TJS Complications	04/17/12	Late July	August	Rest	(1)
Darwin Barney (*)	Cut Knee	03/31/13	Mid April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Brandon Beachy (*)	TJS	06/21/12	Mid June	Mid June	Playing Catch	(1)
Wilson Betemit (*)	Knee	03/25/13	Late April	Mid May	Rest	(1)
Jeff Bianchi (*)	Hip	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Chad Billingsley (*)	Finger	03/07/13	Mid April	Early May	Pitching	(1)
Willie Bloomquist (*)	Strained Oblique	03/27/13	UNK	UNK	Rest	(1)
Craig Breslow (*)	Sore Shoulder	03/07/13	April	April	Throwing	(1)
Cesar Cabral (**)	Elbow fracture	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Edwar Cabrera (**)	Shoulder	08/01/12	Mid April	Unknown	Unknown	(1)
Chris Carpenter (**)	Nerve	02/05/13	2014	Retire	Rest	(1)
Jose Ceda (**)	TJS	04/01/12	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Chase d’Arnaud (**)	Thumb	02/20/13	Mid May	June	Rest	(1)
James Darnell (*)	Strained Oblique	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
John Danks (*)	Shoulder	03/15/13	April	April	Throwing Games	(1)
Scott Diamond (*)	Elbow Surgery	10/01/12	Mid April	May	Bullpen Sessions	(1)
Kyle Drabek (**)	TJS	06/19/12	Mid Season	Mid Season	Unknown	(1)
Stephen Drew (***)	Concussion	03/03/13	Late March	April	Rest	(1)
Danny Duffy (*)	TJS	06/13/12	Early June	All Star Game	Throwing	(1)
Adam Eaton (*)	Strained Elbow	03/22/13	Late April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Scott Elbert (*)	Elbow Surgery	01/01/13	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Nathan Eovaldi (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Neftali Feliz (**)	TJS	08/01/12	July	August	Playing Catch	(1)
Logan Forsythe (*)	Foot	03/28/13	Mid April	May	Playing	(1)
Frank Francisco (*)	Elbow	02/14/13	Mid April	Mid April	Throwing	(1)
David Freese (*)	Back	03/20/13	Early April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Rafael Furcal (*)	TJS	03/13/13	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Mat Gamel (**)	Knee	02/18/13	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Avisail Garcia (*)	Bruised Heel	03/22/13	UNK	UNK	UNK	(1)
Christian Garcia (*)	Forearm	03/22/13	April	May	Rest	(1)
Matt Garza (*)	Strained Lat	02/21/13	April	May	Throwing	(1)
Jason Giambi (*)	Back strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Didi Gredorius (*)	Elbow	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Curtis Granderson (*)	Right forearm	02/24/13	Early May	Middle May	Rest	(1)
Taylor Green (*)	Hip Strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Corey Hart (*)	Right knee surgery	01/26/13	Late May	Late May	Rest	(1)
Chase Headley (*)	Broke Thumb	03/18/13	Mid April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Frank Herrmann (**)	TJS	03/01/13	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Daniel Hudson (**)	TJS	07/09/12	July	July	Throw of mound	(1)
Phil Hughes (*)	Bulging Disk	02/28/13	Mid April	Late April	Pitching	(1)
Drew Hutchison (**)	TJS	08/08/12	August	October	Rehabilitation	(1)
Brandon Inge (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Paul Janish (*)	Shoulder Surgery	10/01/12	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Derek Jeter (*)	Fractured Left Ankle	10/01/12	Mid April	Early May	Playing Games	(1)
Steve Johnson (*)	Lat strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Ryan Kalish (**)	Shoulder Surgery	01/25/13	Early April	Unknown	Rest	(1)
Jeff Karstens (*)	Shoulder	02/01/13	April	April	Batting Practice	(1)
Casey Kelly (**)	Elbow	03/14/13	Unknown	2014	Rest	(1)
Josh Kinney (**)	Side	03/10/13	May	June	Rest	(1)
Brett Lawrie (*)	Ribs	03/07/13	Mid April	Late April	Exercise	(1)
Colby Lewis (*)	Elbow Surgery	07/01/12	Late May	June	Throwing	(1)
Ted Lilly (*)	Shoulder Surgery	09/01/12	April	April	Pitching	(1)
Francisco Liriano (*)	Broken humerus	12/01/12	Early April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Ryan Ludwick (*)	Shoulder	04/03/13	Early July	Early July	Rest	(1)
Cory Luebke (**)	TJS	05/23/12	July	July	Unknown	(1)
Ryan Madson (*)	TJS	04/11/12	May	June	Throwing off mound	(1)
Joe Mahoney (*)	Intercostal Strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Shawn Marcum (*)	Shoulder	03/20/13	Mid April	Mid April	Throwing	(1)
Fernando Martinez (*)	Strained Oblique	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Nick Masset (*)	Shoulder Surgery	09/07/12	Unknown	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Jeff Mathis (*)	Broken Collarbone	02/23/13	Early May	Early May	Rest	(1)
Brian McCann (*)	Torn labrum	07/04/12	Late April	May	Batting Practice	(1)
Dustin McGowan (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Jerry Mejia (*)	Elbow Sprain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Franklin Morales (*)	Bulging Disk	03/15/13	Early April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Logan Morrison (**)	Knee	09/01/12	Late May	June	Light Training	(1)
Charlie Morton (*)	TJS	06/21/12	June	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Jason Motte (*)	Elbow Strain	03/23/13	Early April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (*)	Strained hamstring	03/28/13	Mid April	Mid April	Rest	(1)
David Ortiz (*)	Achilles	03/03/13	Mid April	Early May	Hitting	(1)
Juan Oviedo (**)	TJS	09/06/12	September	2014	Rest	(1)
Felipe Paulino (**)	TJS	07/03/12	Early July	Early July	Throwing	(1)
Luis Perez (**)	TJS	07/01/12	Early July	Early September	Rest	UNK
Martin Perez (*)	Broken Forearm	03/03/13	Late April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Brett Pill (*)	Knee	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Michael Pineda (**)	Shoulder Surgery	05/01/12	June	Early July	Bullpen	(1)
Hanley Ramirez (*)	Thumb	03/17/13	Early April	June	Rest	(1)
Adam Rosales (*)	Thunk	03/24/13	Early April	Late April	Rest	(1)
Alex Rodriguez (**)	Hip surgery	01/16/13	Early July	2014 season	Rest	(1)
Fernando Rodriguez (**)	TJS	03/14/13	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Mark Rodgers (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Cody Ross (*)	Strained Leg	01/06/13	April	April	Jogging	(1)
Johan Santana (*)	Back	02/25/13	2014	2014	Throwing off flat ground	(1)
Luke Scott (*)	Calf Strain	03/31/13	Mid April	Mid May	Rest	(1)
Leyson Septimo (*)	Shoulder Strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Alfredo Silverio (**)	Fractured Clavicle	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Michael Schwimer (*)	Shoulder	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Joakim Soria (*)	TJS	04/02/12	Late May	Early June	Playing Catch	(1)
Ian Stewart (*)	Quadricep	02/15/13	April	Unknown	Everything, but run	(1)
Eric Surkamp (*)	TJS	07/24/12	Late July	September	Unknown	(1)
Anthony Swarzak (*)	Ribs	01/25/13	April	May	Throw of mound	(1)
Andrew Taylor (*)	Torn labrum	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Mark Teixeira (*)	Strained Wrist	03/06/13	May 1st	Mid June	Rest	(1)
Chris Tillman (*)	Abdominal Strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Josh Tomlin (**)	TJS	08/22/12	August	2014	Rest	(1)
Jonny Venters (*)	Elbow Sprain	03/26/13	Mid May	UNK	Rest	(1)
Arodys Vizcaino (**)	TJS	03/01/12	March	June	UNK	UNK
Joe Wieland (**)	TJS	07/27/12	Early August	2014	Catch	(1)
Tsuyoshi Wada (*)	TJS	05/11/12	May	June	Throwing off mound	(1)
Alex White (**)	Likely TJS	04/04/13	2014	2014	UNK	(1)
Blake Wood (**)	TJS	05/01/12	May	June	Unknown	UNK
Tim Wood (*)	Rotator cuff strain	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK	UNK
Delmon Young (*)	Right ankle	10/01/12	Mid April	Early May	Rest	(1)

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List

Players Returning From Injury

No information yet.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name	Injury	Source
Carlos Beltran	Toe	(1)
Carl Crawford	Elbow	sitting
Zack Greinke	Elbow	(1)
Bryce Harper	Thumb	(1)
Nick Markakis	Neck	(1)
Russell Martin	Shoulder	(1)
Will Middlebrooks	Wrist	(1)
Daniel Murphy	Intercostal	(1)
Nolan Reimold	Shoulder	(1)
Pablo Sandoval	Elbow	(1)
David Wright	Intercostal	(1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta, Howie Kendrick, Paul Konerko