MASH Report (2/7/13)
Recent injury data
• Matt Kemp is aiming to be 100% helathy by opening day after shoulder surgery on October 5th. I wouldn’t count on it. I would probably drop him a round when draft day rolls around. As a general rule, I try to start the season with healthy stars.
• Logan Morrison will not be up to strength in spring training and may not be ready for opening day after knee surgery. He played through the injury during 2012 and it really seemed to sap his power with his ISO going from .221 to .169, HR/FB from 18% to 11%, and average home run and fly ball distance going from 292 ft to 270 ft. If healthy, he could be draft day steal as people may shy away from him.
• Anthony Swarzak will be out for a month after fracturing two ribs while “playing around and wrestling” at Twins Fest. Not much value in a pitcher whose career ERA (5.03) is almost the same as his K/9 (5.3).
• Chris Carpenter is almost certainly out for all of the 2013 and he may never pitch again. Michael Barr has covered the injury and the implications in St. Louis here at RotoGraphs a couple days ago.
• Matt Garza looks to be track for spring training after throwing his first 30 pitch bullpen session. Right now it looks like he will be healthy for the start of the regular season.
• Vance Worley is “ready to go” in spring training after having some bone chips removed last September.
• I couldn’t find any updates on Max Scherzer and his hurt shoulder. Hopefully some information will come to light as spring training starts up.
Player Return Timetables
| Name | Injury | Injury/Surgery Date | Early Return Date | Later Return date | Status | Source(s) |
| Scott Baker | TJS | 4/17/12 | Start of Spring Training | Opening day | Throwing off mound | (1) |
| Brandon Beachy | TJS | 6/21/12 | Mid June | Mid June | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Jeremy Bonderman | TJS | 04/24/12 | Late March | Late March | Healthy | (1) |
| Chris Carpenter | Nerve | 02/05/13 | September | Retire | Rest | (1) |
| Andrew Cashner | Thumb laceration | 1/25/13 | May | May | Rest | (1) |
| Carl Crawford | TJS | 8/23/12 | Early April | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
| Kyle Drabek | TJS | 6/19/12 | Mid Season | Mid Season | Unknown | (1) |
| Danny Duffy | TJS | 6/13/12 | Late May/Early June | All Star Game | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Neftali Feliz | TJS | 8/1/12 | July | August | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Corey Hart | Right knee surgery | 1/26/13 | Late April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
| Daniel Hudson | TJS | 7/9/12 | July | July | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Drew Hutchison | TJS | 08/08/12 | August | October | Rehabilitation | (1) |
| Derek Jeter | Fractured Left Ankle | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Fielding | (1) |
| Ryan Kalish | Shoulder Surgery | 1/25/13 | Early April | Unknown | Rest | (1) |
| Matt Kemp | Shoulder | 8/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Light Training | (1) |
| Francisco Liriano | Broken humerus | 12/1/12 | Early April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
| Cory Luebke | TJS | 5/23/12 | July | July | Unknown | (1) |
| Ryan Madson | TJS | 04/11/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing off mound | (1) |
| Brian McCann | Torn labrum | 7/4/12 | Opening Day | Mid April | Running and throwing | (1) |
| Logan Morrison | Knee | 9/1/12 | Late March | Late April | Light Training | (1) |
| Charlie Morton | TJS | 06/21/12 | June | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
| Juan Oviedo | TJS | 09/06/12 | September | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Felipe Paulino | TJS | 7/3/12 | Early July | Early July | Unknown | (1) |
| Carl Pavano | Ruptured spleen | 1/25/13 | Late March | Mid April | Rest | (1) |
| Mike Pelfrey | TJS | 05/01/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
| Michael Pineda | Shoulder Surgery | 5/1/12 | May | Early July | Rest | (1) |
| Alex Rodriguez | Hip surgery | 1/16/13 | Early July | 2014 season | Rest | (1) |
| CC Sabathia | Bone Spur | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
| Joakim Soria | TJS | 4/2/12 | Late May | Early June | Playing Catch | (1) |
| Eric Surkamp | TJS | 07/24/12 | Late July | September | Unknown | |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | TJS | 05/11/12 | Late March | Early July | Unknown | (1)(2) |
| Josh Tomlin | TJS | 08/22/12 | August | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
| Joe Wieland | TJS | 07/27/12 | Early August | August | Catch | (1) |
| Brian Wilson | TJS | 4/19/12 | Unknown | Unknown | Not ready to pitch | (1) |
| Randy Wolf | TJS | 10/30/12 | 2014 | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
Players Returning From Injury
Information will be added as it becomes available.
Players Playing Through Injuries
| Name | Injury | Source |
| Hanley Ramirez | Shoulder | (1) |
Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:
Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Good stuff Jeff. I haven’t seen anything on Scherzer either. Talk last year was shoulder fatigue. I read he lost some velosity and I think he missed at least one start. Given what we know, would you de-value him at all? I’ll need to make a hold decision on him soon and can’t wait to much longer.
I don’t know, I would devalue him some, the velocity drop was significant. Maybe use his 2012 projection instead of his 2012 value. The velocity drop is down to 2011 levels.
Max’s velocity returned somewhat in his last start of the season after he was skipped one turn- see chart linked below:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3137&position=P&pitch=FA
I love Max this year.
MM