MASH Report (2/25/13)

I am working my way through Dr. James Andrew’s book on sports injuries, Any Given Monday. While the book is focused mainly on youth sports injuries, some of the information applies to older athletes. I found the entire chapter on baseball injuries is free online for viewing. I would highly recommend reading the entire chapter for some good information on baseball injury prevention.

Recent injury data

 • Curtis Granderson is out until early May with a broken forearm. Right now the Yankees are saying they are going to look in house for a replacement. I don’t exactly buy it. I would wait a couple of weeks if possible to see what they do for a replacement.

 • Johan Santana’s start to spring training is delay because of weakness. The article reports a lack of velocity and an inability to throw his change. He will be trying to build up his strength. I would not acquire him without other possible starting pitcher options already in place.

 • Justin Ruggiano is day-to-day with a strained back. Back injuries just never seem to go away. Monitor him to see how long it takes him to start playing games regularly.

 • Ian Stewart is out 2-3 weeks with a quad strain. He was to be the starting 3B for the Cubs. Luis Valbuena will be filling as the Cubs 3B in while Stewart is hurt, but Stewart should get the starting job back once he returns

 • Jeff Mathis will miss six weeks with a broken collarbone. Too bad no one will miss the career 0.198 hitter.

 • David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are to be ready by opening day. One interesting piece of data from the article is this information from John Farrell:

Farrell said Ortiz would only need about two weeks’ worth of games to feel ready for Opening Day.

“If you ask any hitter, they get their timing pretty good in a two-week period. That’s going to give him probably 35-40 at-bats,” the manager said. “Time’s on our side in terms of a position player.”

So if a hitter is out for a while, they need 35-40 at-bats to get up to speed. Is this the same during the season? I may have to look to examine the data to see if there is any truth to the quote.

 • Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford both look ready to return playing by the start of the season.

 • Luis Perez (TJS recovery) and Chris Carpenter (spine and right shoulder irritation) were both officially placed on the 60-day disabled list.

 • I will be keeping track of pitcher fastball velocities when possible during spring training (mainly games at Surprise and Peoria) to look for any changes. Here are the values from several pitchers along with any previous season velocities. Alexi Ogando was the only pitcher who set off several red flags. Besides Ogando, Kelvin Herrera and Stephen Pryor both saw losses of over 2 mph from their 2012 average velocity. I will keep track of the trio’s future appearances.

For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season. Finally, thanks to brooksbaseball.net for the 2013 spring training Pitchf/x values.

All values are mph.

Alexi Ogando – The large drop in his velocity and other traits led me to write an entire article on his first start.
2010: 96.2
2011: 95.0
2012: 96.9
2013 ST (2/22): 93.1

Hector Noesi
2011: 93.3
2012: 92.5
2013 ST (2/22): 91.5

Derek Holland
2010: 92.1
2011: 94.2
2012: 93.0
2013 ST (2/22): 93.2

Kelvin Herrera:
2011: 96.2
2012: 98.5
2013 ST (2/24): 95.0

Tim Collins
2011: 92.4
2012: 93.2
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0

Tom Wilhelmsen
2011: 95.2
2012: 96.3
2013 ST (2/24): 94.9

Charles Furbush
2011: 90.9
2012: 91.3
2013 ST (2/24): 89.8

Stephen Pryor
2012: 96.6
2013 ST (2/24): 92.0

Casey Kelly (45th ranked prospect by Baseball America(BA))
2012: 91.2
2013 ST (2/24): 91.2

Robbie Ross
2012: 91.8
2013 ST (2/22): 91.2

Brad Boxberger
2012: 91.6
2013 ST (2/23): 91.8

Besides players with previous reported velocities, here are the fastball speeds for three highly touted pitching prospects:

Taijuan Walker (18th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 94.6

Danny Hultzen (29th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/23): 91.3

Yordano Ventura (85th ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/22): 98.0

James Paxton (87 ranked prospect by BA)
2013 ST (2/24): 89.5

Player Return Timetables

Name	Injury	Injury/Surgery Date	Early Return Date	Later Return date	Status	Source(s)
Scott Baker	TJS	4/17/12	Mid April	May	Throwing off mound	(1)
Grant Balfour	Knee	2/14/13	Late March	Middle April	Rest	(1)
Brandon Beachy	TJS	6/21/12	Mid June	Mid June	Playing Catch	(1)
Lance Berkman	Knee	10/1/12	Late April	Mid March	Working out	(1)
Jeremy Bonderman	TJS	04/24/12	Late March	Late March	Healthy	(1)
Tim Byrdak	Shoulder Surgery	07/01/12	Early July	Early July	Bullpen Sessions	(1)
Edwar Cabrera	Shoulder	08/01/12	Mid March	Unknown	Unknown	(1)
Chris Carpenter	Nerve	02/05/13	September	Retire	Rest	(1)
Andrew Cashner	Thumb laceration	1/25/13	Late March	May	Rest	(1)
Carl Crawford	TJS	8/23/12	Early March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Scott Diamond	Elbow Surgery	10/1/12	Early April	Early May	Unknown	(1)
Kyle Drabek	TJS	6/19/12	Mid Season	Mid Season	Unknown	(1)
Danny Duffy	TJS	6/13/12	Late May/Early June	All Star Game	Playing Catch	(1)
Neftali Feliz	TJS	8/1/12	July	August	Playing Catch	(1)
Frank Francisco	Elbow	2/14/13	April	Unknown	Rest	(1)
Rafael Furcal	Elbow	2/20/13	Mid March	Mid April	Rest	(1)
Mat Gamel	Knee	2/18/13	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Curtis Granderson	Right forearm	2/24/13	Early May	Middle May	Rest	(1)
Corey Hart	Right knee surgery	1/26/13	Late April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Daniel Hudson	TJS	7/9/12	July	July	Playing Catch	(1)
Drew Hutchison	TJS	08/08/12	August	October	Rehabilitation	(1)
Derek Jeter	Fractured Left Ankle	10/1/12	Late March	Late March	Fielding	(1)
Ryan Kalish	Shoulder Surgery	1/25/13	Early April	Unknown	Rest	(1)
Matt Kemp	Shoulder	8/1/12	Late March	Late March	Light Training	(1)
Colby Lewis	Elbow Surgery	7/1/12	Late May	July	Throwing	(1)
Francisco Liriano	Broken humerus	12/1/12	Early April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Cory Luebke	TJS	5/23/12	July	July	Unknown	(1)
Ryan Madson	TJS	04/11/12	April	May	Rest	(1)
Nick Masset	Shoulder Surgery	09/07/12	Unknown	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Jeff Mathis	Broken Collarbone	02/23/13	Mid March	Mid March	Rest	(1)
Brian McCann	Torn labrum	7/4/12	Mid April	May	Running and throwing	(1)
Logan Morrison	Knee	9/1/12	Late March	Late April	Light Training	(1)
Charlie Morton	TJS	06/21/12	June	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Juan Oviedo	TJS	09/06/12	September	2014	Rest	(1)
Felipe Paulino	TJS	7/3/12	Early July	Early July	Unknown	(1)
Carl Pavano	Ruptured spleen	1/25/13	Late March	Mid April	Rest	(1)
Mike Pelfrey	TJS	05/01/12	Late March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Michael Pineda	Shoulder Surgery	5/1/12	June	Early July	Rest	(1)
Wilson Ramos	ACL	5/1/12	Late March	Late March	Catching	(1)
Alex Rodriguez	Hip surgery	1/16/13	Early July	2014 season	Rest	(1)(2)
CC Sabathia	Bone Spur	10/1/12	Late March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Johan Santana	Back		Late April	Middle March	Throwing off mound	(1)
George Sherrill	TJS	5/1/11	Late April	May	Bullpen Sessions	(1)
Joakim Soria	TJS	4/2/12	Late May	Early June	Playing Catch	(1)
Eric Surkamp	TJS	07/24/12	Late July	September	Unknown	(1)
Tsuyoshi Wada	TJS	05/11/12	May	Jun	Throwing off mound	(1)
Josh Tomlin	TJS	08/22/12	August	2014	Rest	(1)
Joe Wieland	TJS	07/27/12	Early August	2014	Catch	(1)
Brian Wilson	TJS	4/19/12	Unknown	Unknown	Not ready to pitch	(1)
Randy Wolf	TJS	10/30/12	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Delmon Young	Right ankle	10/1/12	Mid April	Early May	Rest	(1)

Players Returning From Injury

Information will be added as it becomes available.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name	Injury	Source
Hanley Ramirez	Shoulder	(1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick