MASH Report (12/1/14)

• I am going to dissect the DL data since 2002 in any possible way. I already plan on examining team trends, position trends and how certain injuries affect production. Is there anything else you would like look at while I am going over the information?

• At MLB TradeRumors, I examined if the amount of career pitches makes a difference on a pitcher’s health and came to the following conclusion.

Boras continues to mention Scherzer’s pitching odometer as an advantage over Lester and Shields. However, the number of pitches thrown is not indicative of future injury. A high number shows the pitcher can hold up to the grind of being able to successfully throw for full seasons. The main issue between the three pitchers is age. Scherzer is four years younger than Shields. Scherzer’s body may still be able to hold up a bit better than the other pair, but they are still some of the healthiest pitchers in the league. The debate about the trio’s durability should begin and end with age.

• FanGraphs community author, Kevmo10, looked at the production for pitchers coming off major elbow or shoulder surgeries.

Overall this research backed up most of the common thoughts around the game. Pitchers with elbow injuries generally recovered quicker and more effectively than those with shoulder injuries. The biggest improvement from year one to year two after surgery appears to be with walk rates, as a pitcher’s control is often the last thing to come back after being off the mound for so long.
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Pitchers coming off shoulder injuries probably aren’t guys you want to pencil in and count on for 200 innings, but for the money involved they could be low cost lottery tickets that could pay off big for a team.

The Scott Kazmir’s of the world are usually the pitchers who bring back the most value (the injured pitcher who puts himself back together). The problem is this transformation doen’t usually happen, so don’t be afraid take a chance on one or two of these pitcher, but immediately cut bait if it doesn’t work.

• The recently released The Hardball Times Annual has two injury related articles. In the first, Craig Wright examines “The Explosion of UCL Injuries”. The one item I found interesting was:

A more recent study using data collected from 2006 to 2010 concluded that youth league pitchers who threw sliders had “three times the risk of getting injured” as those who did not throw sliders.

The importance of these findings among the youth pitchers is only partly about the risks of the slider. What those results really are shouting about is how the dangers of pitching are magnified when dealing with young arms with immature elbow joints.

While the risk of abusing an immature joint steadily declines during the advance to maturity, it remains a factor for a significant portion of a professional pitcher’s career. The joints are the parts of the body that mature the latest, often not completing that maturity until around age 24. Even the bones, the bulk of which complete their maturation by ages 18-20 for most males, still have some “late-bloomers.” For example, the growth plate of the clavicle, which has a role in the shoulder joint, does not fully ossify all layers until around ages 23 to 25.

With pitcher injuries, I have found being young isn’t the only key to being healthy. The starting pitchers needs to show they hold up to multiple full seasons before getting a healthy tag.

Also, Eno Sarris wondered “Is the Split-finger Dangerous?”

There are actually only six starting pitchers on that list. Those six played in 87 seasons and went to the disabled list in 32 percent of them. The average starting pitcher hits the DL in 40 percent of his seasons. The sample is still so tiny—too tiny to do anything with these numbers.

With the limited amount of info, the split finger doesn’t lead to injuries.

Kyle Boddy brings up a good point later when he talks about the pitch affecting pitchers.

According to Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball (and a Hardball Times alum), that isn’t necessarily your ulnar nerve you’re feeling down there. But that isn’t to say that Affeldt is completely wrong. What you feel in your inner elbow are two muscles of the flexor group that are “responsible for stabilizing the elbow joint” as Boddy put it. And the act of moving the middle finger away from the index finger does contract those muscles, and so that “may inhibit their ability to safely protect the UCL during loading.” In other words, if your flexor muscles are busy with your grip, it might be possible that they can’t help your elbow as much as necessary.

Some pitchers, like Tony Sipp, can easily get their fingers across the ball, but other can’t without causing elbow pain.

• Jordan Bastian of MLB.com looked at how Jason Kipnis struggled with his injuries in 2014.

The overall result was a 2014 slash line of .240/.310/.330 in 500 at-bats, falling well below the All-Star standard he set in ’13 (.284/.366/.452 in 564 at-bats). The hope would be that a full offseason for rest and training will put Kipnis in a position to improve his production against lefties in 2015. If he can return to his previous style of attacking outside pitches with authority, Kipnis could enjoy a solid comeback campaign.

I want to see where he is going in drafts and auctions in 2015. I could see myself owning some shares if his price is low enough.

• Chris Teeter at Beyond the Box Score found the following conclusion about players on turf.

My hesitant conclusion from this analysis is that playing on turf a lot early in one’s career can lead to a steeper aging ‘curve’. This seems to fit the conventional wisdom associated with playing on turf. I say it’s a hesitant conclusion because it must be acknowledged that we are dealing with a small sample of players, and only looking at one batting statistic.

The findings don’t surprise me one bit after hearing the horror stories of injuries from Olympic Stadium.

• Ryan Braun’s thumb feels significantly better.

Ten days after the procedure, Braun swung a bat and was relieved to find the sensation had disappeared.
“Right now, I don’t feel any [discomfort], and I haven’t been able to say that for two years,” he said. “I think I’ve told you guys, it [bothered him] shaking hands, writing — you know, just everyday activities. Now, I don’t feel it at all, so I’m excited.”
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“I’m excited, but at the same time, I went into last year and felt really good in Spring Training,” Braun said. “For the first four or five weeks, it felt great, I played great, and then kind of re-injured it. But last year we also just rested it; we didn’t do a procedure. So I’m optimistic and excited. I feel like I have to be somewhat cautiously optimistic until we start playing a little bit. …

I am a little leery about going all in with him in 2015, but could could see him beat expectations since projections have no idea about his injury.

• CC Sabathia talked a bit about how his knee feels.

“The knee, I have no complaints,” Sabathia told YES. “I’m able to do all of my workouts. … I’m changing a few things. Not as much pounding and running. I’m in the pool a lot, on different machines to get cardio, (on the) bike. Just adding a few different things to get some cardio in.”

I wouldn’t look at targeting him unless his velocity comes back up and even then, he could break down any day.

• The MRI on Yu Darvish’s elbow came back clean.

 Darvish is already into his normal offseason conditioning program and is expected to begin throwing in early December. Darvish is expected to remain working out in Texas for the next several weeks.

“We’re going to get a chance to really monitor his progress,” Levine said. “He seems really dedicated to come into Spring Training with no issues and be ready for the 2015 campaign. This is a really positive day for the Rangers to be able to check Darvish off our list with the expectation that he will be at full strength in 2015.”

It looks like we are waiting to see how he throws in spring training.

• Cliff Lee is in the same boat, healthy, but we won’t know exactly how healthy until spring training.

“His strength is good, he’s got no pain,” Amaro said. “It’s encouraging. We won’t know the whole story until he starts throwing and getting off a mound and how he feels once he starts ramping it up. But it’s good news that he’s currently pain-free, and we’ll go from there.”

• Alexi Ogando’s elbow is acting up again and he won’t pitch as planned in the Dominican Winter League.

Ogando has informed the Rangers that he is not yet comfortable pitching in a competitive game. Instead, he will continue to go through his rehab program as he tries to come back from the elbow problems that cut short his 2014 season.

“We talked about him pitching in winter ball, and that was of interest to us,” assistant general manager Thad Levine said Thursday. “But as he got closer to the time where he would have to formally commit, he felt he would be better served just to continue his rehab work.”

Ogando remains the biggest pitching mystery on a team that went into the offseason looking for starting pitching. His unknown status lingers less than two weeks before the non-tender deadline of 11 p.m. CT on Dec. 2.

He will be an interesting non-tender candidate. I could see some other teams being interested in him. Maybe a trade could be in the works.

• Vic Black believes his shoulder issues are in the past.

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Players with Injuries Going into 2015