Adam Wainwright, 2015 Bust

Adam Wainwright will be a bust for fantasy owners in 2015. And so we’re on the same page here, by bust, I mean that Wainwright will fail to earn his draft day cost by a meaningful margin. It does not necessarily mean that he will perform poorly and cost his owners value. Since it’s still far too early to get a sense of how fantasy owners will be valuing players next year, and specifically Wainwright, I will again reference the slow mock draft I’m currently participating in. He was selected as the 11th starting pitcher off the board. There’s serious downside at that price.

Let’s first begin with his performance. Wainwright completed another fabulous season, posting a career low 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, while also winning 20 games for the second time. And since those ratios came over a whopping 227 innings, their benefits were magnified. It all led to a season that ranked him 19th overall and fifth among starting pitchers in fantasy leagues.

But things aren’t always what they seem on the surface. His SIERA sat at 3.52, his highest mark since 2008, and over a full run above his actual ERA. Career lows in both BABIP and HR/FB rate hid his declining skills, which are depicted below:

His strikeout rate dropped to its lowest mark since 2008, while his ground ball rate now sits in the middle of his pre-2009 range. And he suddenly has suffered from a line drive problem. Among qualified starters, could you believe that Wainwright allowed the third highest rate of liners? He also induced pop-ups at a career low clip! So he allowed lots of line-drives, the type of batted ball that goes for a hit significantly more often than any other, and induced few pop-ups, which are near automatic outs. Yet, his BABIP set a new career low. Huh? Sometimes baseball gives us those conundrums.

Wainwright has actually made a living keeping his HR/FB rate low, however he’s doing that. So his 5.3% rate this year is unlikely to suddenly jump back up to the league average. As a result, he should continue to outperform his SIERA. But he could still outperform his SIERA even after a considerable spike in ERA. So from a results perspective, he’s going to be a pretty darn good pitcher again as usual, but likely to a much lesser degree than he was this season. So don’t be paying for that ERA and WHIP, because it ain’t gonna happen again without another huge dose of lady luck.

Now with performance questions out of the way, let’s discuss his health. Wainwright missed the 2011 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and had no issues until this summer. In mid-June, he missed a start due to elbow tendinitis, but structural damage was ruled out. And then after the season ended, he underwent a procedure to trim a ligament in the elbow. It’s a minor surgery, but it does raise additional red flags. With news that the team is planning to limit his workload in Spring Training next season, it may be a longshot that he comes close to the innings total we’re used to seeing from him.

So worse ratios, fewer innings and questions about the health of his elbow make Wainwright a risky choice at the price he’s likely to command on draft day. I’m by no means predicting doom and gloom, but he’s as obvious a bust candidate as there is.