MASH Report (10/17/13) – Batter Edition
For the first time ever in the history of MASH, it happens to be hitter only news. I will update four hitters on the mend and look at the end of season HURT rankings.
• The latest report has Manny Machado returning in 6 months (link)
Manny Machado will miss Spring Training and almost certainly be delayed to start the 2014 regular season, as the Orioles third baseman’s recovery timetable following Monday’s knee surgery is approximately six months.
• Josh Reddick will under go surgery after playing through a broken wrist in 2013. Both his power and contact skills were down compared to previous seasons. He is supposed to be ready by spring training.
• Michael Morse is having wrist surgery and will be out 6-8 weeks (link).
Doctors estimated that the outgrowth of the capitate bone that runs down through the hand was caused by trauma and probably occurred sometime in May, which likely affected his power and extension during his swing.
Morse, 31, had hit 11 homers and had 21 RBIs through May, but he hit just two more home runs and compiled a .165 average after June 1.
He struggled with a 5 year low in ISO (.167) and BABIP (.254). I could see him as a great buy low candidate. I don’t see a return to his 2011 levels where he hit 31 HR and had a .303 AVG. If he finds a full time gig, he will have value in all but the shallowest of leagues by hitting .280 with 20+ HRs.
• Michael Bourn had minor hamstring surgery. He will be fully recovered in a month or two.
• Looking back at HURT
HURT was created to find players will the traits of injured players (less power, speed, and/or contact). Overall, the system worked great. On many occasions, players showed up in the rankings before an actual injury was reported. For example, Michael Morse never reported an injury all season until last week, but he had the 29th highest HURT value. While it seems to miss on some players, possibly Chris Johnson, it was on most of the time. The only big change I see for next season is to look at players at the intra-season level
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (top hitters with at least 50 PA in 2013 and at least 600 PA from 2010 to 2012 – complete list found here):
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
| Name | HURT | ISO | ISO_3Y_Proj | ISO_Diff | Contact | Contact_Proj | Contact_Diff | PA_Season | PA_Prev_3_Seasons |
| B.J. Upton | 226 | 0.105 | 0.193 | -0.088 | 67.0% | 73.0% | -6.0% | 446 | 1883 |
| Casper Wells | 178 | 0.021 | 0.189 | -0.168 | 66.0% | 72.0% | -6.0% | 102 | 656 |
| Jason Kubel | 174 | 0.100 | 0.201 | -0.101 | 70.0% | 77.0% | -7.0% | 290 | 1554 |
| Seth Smith | 166 | 0.139 | 0.200 | -0.061 | 76.0% | 78.0% | -2.0% | 410 | 1372 |
| Josh Willingham | 157 | 0.159 | 0.233 | -0.074 | 73.0% | 76.0% | -3.0% | 471 | 1629 |
| Albert Pujols | 140 | 0.179 | 0.253 | -0.074 | 83.0% | 85.0% | -2.0% | 443 | 2021 |
| Chris Johnson | 133 | 0.136 | 0.157 | -0.021 | 76.0% | 76.0% | 0.0% | 547 | 1295 |
| Lance Berkman | 130 | 0.117 | 0.208 | -0.091 | 77.0% | 78.0% | -1.0% | 294 | 1165 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 127 | 0.085 | 0.179 | -0.094 | 74.0% | 75.0% | -1.0% | 140 | 1583 |
| Paul Konerko | 120 | 0.111 | 0.226 | -0.115 | 82.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | 520 | 1868 |
| Melky Cabrera | 120 | 0.081 | 0.146 | -0.065 | 88.0% | 88.0% | 0.0% | 372 | 1716 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 119 | 0.231 | 0.282 | -0.051 | 68.0% | 68.0% | 0.0% | 504 | 1498 |
| Mark Kotsay | 119 | 0.032 | 0.118 | -0.086 | 83.0% | 87.0% | -4.0% | 171 | 770 |
| Starlin Castro | 118 | 0.102 | 0.128 | -0.026 | 82.0% | 84.0% | -2.0% | 705 | 1912 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 118 | 0.229 | 0.240 | -0.011 | 84.0% | 88.0% | -4.0% | 512 | 1338 |
| Miguel Montero | 118 | 0.114 | 0.170 | -0.056 | 74.0% | 77.0% | -3.0% | 475 | 1457 |
| Chris Iannetta | 118 | 0.148 | 0.174 | -0.026 | 72.0% | 75.0% | -3.0% | 399 | 902 |
| Cesar Izturis | 113 | 0.062 | 0.052 | 0.010 | 87.0% | 90.0% | -3.0% | 142 | 719 |
| Tyler Colvin | 108 | 0.120 | 0.225 | -0.105 | 74.0% | 73.0% | 1.0% | 78 | 1069 |
| Alex Presley | 106 | 0.097 | 0.163 | -0.066 | 84.0% | 86.0% | -2.0% | 195 | 626 |
| Matt Kemp | 103 | 0.125 | 0.233 | -0.108 | 68.0% | 73.0% | -5.0% | 290 | 1806 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 102 | 0.178 | 0.219 | -0.041 | 80.0% | 81.0% | -1.0% | 351 | 1763 |
| Robert Andino | 101 | 0.053 | 0.092 | -0.039 | 77.0% | 82.0% | -5.0% | 85 | 1008 |
| Mark Teixeira | 100 | 0.189 | 0.232 | -0.043 | 75.0% | 84.0% | -9.0% | 63 | 1920 |
Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Major League Report
Minor League Report
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.