MASH Report (10/15/15) – Final PAIN and HURT Values

• I am really light on content today, but I am going to stick to my plan of publishing every Thursday no matter the news.

Ruben Tejada is expected to be ready by spring training after having his leg broke.

The Mets announced Monday afternoon that infielder Ruben Tejada, injured on a slide into second base by the Dodgers’ Chase Utley in NLDS Game 2, won’t need surgery to fix the non-displaced fractured fibula in his right leg.

CBS MLB Insider Jon Heyman reports that Tejada instead will spend 6-8 weeks in a cast, and be ready for spring training in February.

• We should have a better idea of James Paxton’s health since he will be pitching in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). He went on the DL twice for different finger injuries in 2015.

Paxton made just 13 starts, going 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, after opening the season as the Mariners’ No. 2 starter behind Felix Hernandez. The lefty spent 3 1/2 months on the disabled list with a tendon injury in the middle finger of his pitching hand, then he was limited upon his return in September by a torn nail on the same finger.

The 26-year-old Canadian has been throwing in Arizona for the past week, and he hopes to make seven or eight starts during the AFL campaign, then possibly another couple in Puerto Rico or another Winter League at the end of November to further build up his arm after his limited work this summer.

Robinson Cano is expected to be ready for the start of the 2016 season after having hernia surgery this week.

Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia on Tuesday in Philadelphia and is expected to be fully recovered in about six weeks, the club reported.

 

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Comparing 2012-2014 to 2015 (min 1 PA in each season)

It is no surprise at all with the names who had a HURT score over 100. What I like to look for are players on the rebound from possible injuries. The second highest ranked regular hitter’s HURT score in 2014 was 217 for Bryce Harper. He rebounded and had a “nice” 2015 season.

Some hitters I see as rebound candidates for 2016 are Anthony Rendon, Kole Calhoun, Andrew McCutchen, and Alex Gordon. I stay away from those who always seem hurt. Instead, I concentrate on the players with freak accidents.

 

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (introduction/explanation)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt

Comparing 2014 to 2015 (min 1 pitches in each season)

The one item I have found with injured pitchers, teams move quickly to shut them down. Unlike the hitters, I don’t like to bet on pitcher bounce backs, especially if they have lost significant velocity. The top names on this list are usually pitchers I stay away from the next year.

 

Players on the DL in 2015

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Marcos
8 years ago

It seems obvious to me that Yasmani Grandal is hurt. If you are in agreement, is there a way to modify the methodology to pick up a case like his?

jfree
8 years ago
Reply to  Marcos

Yes. Create a flag indicator. Is this player Yasmani Grandal? If so, then add 4000 to hurt score. That should be enough to put him right at the top of your hurt list.

RotoCat
8 years ago
Reply to  Marcos

Hurt like how? Heart broken by spurned lover hurt? Depressed because season is over hurt? Hurt that he was hurt earlier in the season hurt?

Ryan
8 years ago
Reply to  RotoCat

No hurt like he’s having an MRI on his shoulder to determine if he needs surgery hurt.

Ryan
8 years ago
Reply to  Marcos

If he split it between first half and second half Grandal would show up. Since he’s looking at all of 2015, Grandal’s huge first half is covering up for his terrible second half.