MASH Report (10/14/14)

• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

• It sounds like shoulder issues will finally move Ryan Zimmerman off third base to first base.

Zimmerman will likely move to first base next season, assuming the Nationals allow Adam LaRoche to leave via free agency. Last week, LaRoche said he would love to stay in Washington but expects he will join a team next season.

• Alex Avila is not going to let brain damage mild concussions get in the way of him playing next season.

• I am not sure where I stand with Allen Craig. The Red Sox and Craig have declared his foot fine which impacted his 2014 prep.

Through their own tests, and discussions with Craig, the Red Sox don’t think the foot injury will be an issue going forward.

“Nope,” said Cherington. “We’ve had it examined. We don’t believe — he doesn’t believe — it’s an issue. So he’s just focused on having a good offseason. I think we’ve done everything we can to make sure that the foot is OK going forward. No further testing needed.”

Maybe he will be fine, but he is over thirty and declining. I think his peak was good enough to finally get in the league at age 25 and his decline will take him out of the league quickly.

• Omar Infante has been dealing with a sore shoulder all season. His power was way down as seen by a .085 ISO compared to one at .132 in 2013 and .144 in 2012. If he can get healthy, he may be a buy low guy next season. The article states he is having problems even throwing the ball around the infield after a strikeout, so watch him in the field in spring training for a level of health.

• In last week’s MASH Report, I cautioned readers on Wainwright and a possible elbow blowout. It seems the Cardinals are also concerned with the situation and plan on limiting Wainwright in 2015 (h/t Hardball Talk).

Wainwright already had a reduced schedule this past spring, and a further reduction is possible. The Cardinals also could prescribe rest periods for Wainwright next season, as they have done in two-week increments for the younger pitchers. Wainwright has defined himself by a pursuit to lead the league in innings, but the club will at least discuss a way to reduce his regular-season work so he isn’t spent by October.

I don’t see how he can be projected for more than 30 starts.

• Yordano Ventura’s left game 2 of the ALCS with shoulder tightness. His fastball was down 3 mph from his previous start. He should be monitored for the rest of this season and the beginning of next.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Players with Injuries Going into 2015