Masahiro Tanaka: Undervalued?

RotoGraphs writers get invited to be in some way-too-early drafts for various industry sources. I have been lucky enough to be included in a 12-team mock drafts for both Lindy’s and RotoWorld. While I have agreed to not release my full results until the sources are available to the public, I can talk about smaller aspects of the drafts. In this case, I ended up with Masahiro Tanaka in each draft. The doubling up on a risky pick has me wondering if I am overvaluing him. For the formats I was drafting in, I don’t think so. As the league depth increases, I could see his value drop.

Alright, time to start with setting his value. Among starters with 250 innings pitched total from 2014 and 2015, here is where he ranks among 107 pitchers.

Stat: Rank, Value
K/9: 23rd, 8.7
BB/9: 4th, 1.5
ERA: 21st, 3.16
K%-BB%: 11th, 20%

He is not a top ten pitcher, but he is easily a top 25 starter … when starting.

If he is starting, and that is the question which is really bringing down his value. At the end of the 2014 season, his elbow began hurting and he was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL. With Tommy John surgery a real possibility, he decided to pitch through the injury and had a productive 2015 season when he pitched. In late April, he experienced a wrist tendonitis and a forearm strain which cost him all of May. He did make 24 starts and was limited to 150 innings.

Now comes his 2016 playing time projection. Right now, Steamer playing time projections have him at 31 starts and 197 innings (both MLB highs for him). Dan Swartz used the Steamer projections and found Tanaka as one of the sleeper picks of 2016 in a recent article.

Using a Standing Gain Points, I came up with similar valuations.
From both the rankings, I found two major drop offs in the starting pitcher rankings. Here are Dan’s dollar values in order for the top 60 starting pitchers.

The first big drop-off after Kershaw is from $29 (Strasburg) to $25 (Harvey). The second drop is when pitchers transition from $21 to $16. In total, there are 21 pitchers in this top group. Unless I am in a 20 team league, I plan to have at least two pitchers from this group (preferably one from the top group and one from the second). I can’t be behind the curve and not have at least two of the top guys. What I found was that once I got the two pitchers, Tanaka was still not taken. In both drafts, he fell and I eventually picked him up for three pitchers in this top ~20 pitcher group.

I am just not sure why owners were scared off in these drafts. It was only 12-team leagues, so the replacement level was high. Therefore, another pitcher could easily replace him if he does get injured. Also, if you don’t agree with the Steamer playing time projection, go with your own (or ask the public). With this playing time projection, make sure it is one you can live with the entire season. If you are going to be mad if Tanaka only throws a couple of games (a possible outcome), give him a low number of linings.

Though I didn’t do it in either league, he could be paired with a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery like Zack Wheeler or Shelby Miller to hedge against Tanaka missing the entire. The key, at least to me, in shallow leagues is upside. Average safe players can be picked up later, rarely studs.

In NFBC leagues, which Dan uses in his value rankings, the league rules make nearly impossible get replacements so Tanaka should be valued less. An owner can use this low ranking to his or her advantage. Right now Tanaka’s average draft position is 124th or early 11th round (12-team league). If a person was to use Swartz’s rankings, he is the 58th overall value or a 5th round value. An owner should probably hold off picking him up until the 9th round.

Putting a value on Masahiro Tanaka is not an easy task. The key is being a comfortable with a playing time estimate for him. The next key is figuring out if the league specific replacement value from the expected time he misses. In the parameters for the two mocks I participated in, I think I valued him correctly, but it could easily change depending on the league settings. I expect a wide number of opinions on him from experts. Don’t go with these quick overarching opinions, instead create your own that you can live with.