March Rankings Update – Starting Pitcher

by
March 14, 2017

We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

March Updates:

February Editions:

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
March SP Rankings
RK NAME Paul S Brad Mike Jeff Al Justin AVG Adj. AVG Split
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 0
2 Max Scherzer 2 2 2 2 2 3 2.2 2.0 1
3 Madison Bumgarner 3 5 5 3 3 2 3.5 3.5 3
4 Chris Sale 5 3 6 5 6 4 4.8 5.0 3
5 Corey Kluber 6 7 3 4 4 5 4.8 4.8 4
6 Noah Syndergaard 4 4 4 6 5 6 4.8 4.8 2
7 Yu Darvish 8 6 11 12 7 7 8.5 8.3 6
8 Justin Verlander 7 9 10 8 10 11 9.2 9.3 4
9 Jon Lester 11 14 8 7 9 9 9.7 9.3 7
10 Jake Arrieta 13 8 7 9 13 10 10.0 10.0 6
11 Johnny Cueto 9 10 14 10 11 8 10.3 10.0 6
12 Chris Archer 14 16 13 11 8 12 12.3 12.5 8
13 Stephen Strasburg 12 12 9 13 12 20 13.0 12.3 11
14 Jacob deGrom 10 11 15 18 14 16 14.0 14.0 8
15 Carlos Carrasco 20 13 16 14 15 13 15.2 14.5 7
16 Masahiro Tanaka 15 18 23 17 17 15 17.5 16.8 8
17 Kyle Hendricks 22 15 12 15 16 25 17.5 17.0 13
18 Carlos Martinez 16 22 22 21 21 14 19.3 20.0 8
19 Jose Quintana 21 19 28 23 29 23 23.8 23.8 10
20 Gerrit Cole 19 20 45 27 18 18 24.5 21.0 27
21 Danny Duffy 17 36 30 20 22 22 24.5 23.5 19
22 David Price 27 37 17 16 23 29 24.8 24.0 21
23 Kenta Maeda 18 33 18 19 20 41 24.8 22.5 23
24 Cole Hamels 31 23 19 25 25 28 25.2 25.3 12
25 Rick Porcello 24 24 27 22 27 37 26.8 25.5 15
26 Zack Greinke 25 27 32 32 26 21 27.2 27.5 11
27 Rich Hill 26 21 24 31 24 38 27.3 26.3 17
28 Aaron Sanchez 29 17 37 30 37 17 27.8 28.3 20
29 Julio Teheran 34 35 20 37 28 24 29.7 30.3 17
30 Marcus Stroman 23 26 33 39 32 27 30.0 29.5 16
31 Danny Salazar 28 30 48 28 30 19 30.5 29.0 29
32 Felix Hernandez 30 28 26 24 35 44 31.2 29.8 20
33 James Paxton 33 31 25 46 40 34 34.8 34.5 21
34 Dallas Keuchel 49 42 29 26 19 47 35.3 36.0 30
35 Steven Matz 39 32 35 36 34 39 35.8 36.0 7
36 Aaron Nola 46 25 44 47 33 32 37.8 38.8 22
37 Lance McCullers 38 47 36 35 41 33 38.3 37.5 14
38 Matt Harvey 40 34 38 51 39 30 38.7 37.8 21
39 Michael Fulmer 32 29 55 43 47 31 39.5 38.3 26
40 Kevin Gausman 35 45 41 44 49 26 40.0 41.3 23
41 Matt Shoemaker 41 38 39 33 43 51 40.8 40.3 18
42 Jon Gray 43 52 31 50 44 45 44.2 45.5 21
43 Jeff Samardzija 56 46 21 29 57 63 45.3 47.0 42
44 Tanner Roark 50 43 40 58 31 56 46.3 47.3 27
45 John Lackey 63 39 51 34 46 46 46.5 45.5 29
46 Jameson Taillon 36 51 50 49 38 57 46.8 47.0 21
47 Carlos Rodon 37 54 62 60 42 35 48.3 48.3 27
48 Sean Manaea 62 44 49 41 36 62 49.0 49.0 26
49 J.A. Happ 55 41 57 45 60 42 50.0 49.8 19
50 Robbie Ray 47 50 53 48 50 52 50.0 50.0 6
51 Matt Moore 48 40 42 54 64 55 50.5 49.8 24
52 Marco Estrada 53 49 52 63 53 40 51.7 51.8 23
53 Vince Velasquez 51 69 68 55 62 36 56.8 59.0 33
54 Jake Odorizzi 45 74 47 52 52 72 57.0 55.8 29
55 Julio Urias 66 48 67 73 55 43 58.7 59.0 30
56 Jerad Eickhoff 52 58 58 65 75 49 59.5 58.3 26
57 Michael Pineda 42 83 34 38 72 90 59.8 58.8 56
58 Garrett Richards 57 53 77 70 61 50 61.3 60.3 27
59 Adam Wainwright 59 60 54 59 58 87 62.8 59.0 33
60 Taijuan Walker 44 55 61 84 65 71 63.3 63.0 40
61 Drew Smyly 67 73 46 42 56 98 63.7 60.5 56
62 Joe Ross 60 82 72 66 54 60 65.7 64.5 28
63 Drew Pomeranz 61 59 82 62 59 73 66.0 63.8 23
64 Hisashi Iwakuma 75 67 65 56 70 84 69.5 69.3 28
65 Blake Snell 71 64 63 61 67 91 69.5 66.3 30
66 Jeremy Hellickson 76 61 79 75 66 65 70.3 70.5 18
67 Jharel Cotton 65 80 83 69 77 54 71.3 72.8 29
68 Ivan Nova 54 68 87 82 71 76 73.0 74.3 33
69 Anthony DeSclafani 99 72 107 64 51 48 73.5 71.5 59
70 Gio Gonzalez 78 101 60 57 83 75 75.7 74.0 44
71 Collin McHugh 100 100 43 40 99 82 77.3 81.0 60
72 Michael Wacha 58 84 90 103 78 58 78.5 77.5 45
73 Tyler Skaggs 92 97 71 72 79 61 78.7 78.5 36
74 Jordan Zimmermann 85 77 64 89 93 67 79.2 79.5 29
75 Wei-Yin Chen 84 107 75 67 84 59 79.3 77.5 48
76 Tyler Anderson 88 70 86 81 63 88 79.3 81.3 25
77 Alex Cobb 64 62 104 106 48 92 79.3 80.5 58
78 Ian Kennedy 72 105 66 53 97 85 79.7 80.0 52
79 Ervin Santana 68 99 70 79 85 78 79.8 78.0 31
80 Francisco Liriano 73 56 73 68 105 110 80.8 79.8 54
81 Sonny Gray 89 90 93 74 45 106 82.8 86.5 61
82 Jason Hammel 79 78 97 90 80 89 85.5 84.5 19
83 Daniel Norris 82 106 95 93 69 74 86.5 86.0 37
84 Dylan Bundy 83 115 96 77 103 53 87.8 89.8 62
85 Trevor Bauer 127 81 69 80 106 70 88.8 84.3 58
86 Adam Conley 70 122 89 108 68 86 90.5 88.3 54
87 Mike Leake 90 65 98 86 102 102 90.5 94.0 37
88 Lance Lynn 80 71 114 87 89 104 90.8 90.0 43
89 Eduardo Rodriguez 93 89 92 96 108 68 91.0 92.5 40
90 Mike Foltynewicz 81 109 101 97 81 81 91.7 90.0 28
91 Junior Guerra 77 66 118 99 96 96 92.0 92.0 52
92 Zach Davies 74 114 109 78 101 80 92.7 92.0 40
93 Brandon Finnegan 69 111 106 91 115 66 93.0 94.3 49
94 Jaime Garcia 124 102 59 71 98 121 95.8 98.0 65
95 Luis Severino 126 93 81 101 116 79 99.3 97.8 47
96 Dan Straily 96 98 84 83 114 127 100.3 98.0 44
97 Scott Kazmir 94 124 56 85 128 120 101.2 105.8 72
98 Tyler Glasnow 134 123 125 88 76 64 101.7 103.0 70
99 Chris Tillman 113 112 105 100 94 99 103.8 104.0 19
100 Matt Andriese 114 126 74 94 100 118 104.3 106.5 52
101 Bartolo Colon 118 87 111 102 110 101 104.8 106.0 31
102 Mike Montgomery 109 79 80 107 104 150 104.8 100.0 71
103 Joe Musgrove 98 88 150 139 82 83 106.7 102.0 68
104 Luke Weaver 105 76 144 119 87 109 106.7 105.0 68
105 Mike Fiers 104 130 85 76 120 125 106.7 108.5 54
106 Tyson Ross 148 117 113 112 74 93 109.5 108.8 74
107 Jose Berrios 97 134 124 136 107 69 111.2 115.5 67
108 Robert Gsellman 86 92 146 117 150 77 111.3 110.3 73
109 Shelby Miller 91 108 120 121 123 105 111.3 113.5 32
110 Alex Wood 107 86 119 155 91 119 112.8 109.0 69
111 R.A. Dickey 117 140 88 98 132 114 114.8 115.3 52
112 Steven Wright 108 63 163 155 86 124 116.5 118.3 100
113 Archie Bradley 129 75 100 110 150 135 116.5 118.5 75
114 Clay Buchholz 140 104 115 105 131 112 117.8 115.8 36
115 Ricky Nolasco 128 146 91 95 125 126 118.5 118.5 55
116 Nate Karns 103 143 76 115 138 140 119.2 124.0 67
117 Patrick Corbin 102 96 163 155 73 134 120.5 121.8 90
118 Edinson Volquez 146 129 99 104 122 131 121.8 121.5 47
119 Jimmy Nelson 101 85 155 134 150 108 122.2 123.3 70
120 Josh Tomlin 153 103 102 92 135 150 122.5 122.5 61
121 CC Sabathia 122 146 94 111 119 150 123.7 124.5 56
122 Zack Wheeler 149 91 131 135 90 150 124.3 126.5 60
123 Kendall Graveman 133 120 136 114 111 133 124.5 125.0 25
124 Brandon McCarthy 136 57 135 155 140 129 125.3 135.0 98
125 Charlie Morton 87 137 116 123 146 150 126.5 130.5 63
126 Drew Hutchison 123 146 78 118 150 146 126.8 133.3 72
127 Jose De Leon 150 121 158 116 88 130 127.2 129.3 70
128 Martin Perez 116 146 126 127 136 113 127.3 126.3 33
129 Hector Santiago 132 135 103 109 150 141 128.3 129.3 47
130 Andrew Triggs 106 144 163 155 95 117 130.0 130.5 68
131 Lucas Giolito 115 146 160 154 113 94 130.3 132.0 66
132 Chad Kuhl 143 113 147 155 126 107 131.8 132.3 48
133 Wily Peralta 110 146 154 144 92 150 132.7 137.5 62
134 Matt Boyd 95 146 163 155 144 95 133.0 135.0 68
135 Seth Lugo 112 95 156 153 150 137 133.8 138.0 61
136 Matt Strahm 120 146 139 155 150 97 134.5 138.8 58
137 Tyler Chatwood 125 146 143 122 121 150 134.5 134.0 29
138 Wade Miley 152 138 108 113 150 150 135.2 137.8 44
139 Tom Koehler 154 146 117 149 134 115 135.8 136.5 39
140 Luis Perdomo 111 146 134 124 150 150 135.8 138.5 39





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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RotoholicMember since 2016
8 years ago

Seeing a 146 and 150 on Gsellman is pretty surprising. And those two rankers put Gsellman behind Tom Koehler and Kendall Graveman, among other zero-upside pitchers. Although it highlights the fact that different rankers use different philosophies. I suppose the different philosophies used could be:

a) “who would I actually draft”
b) “in what order will these guys finish on average, if the season was simulated 1000 times”.

Because in an actual draft/auction, no expert would ever pick either of Koehler or Graveman ahead of Gsellman. However, with the “1000 season simulations” philosophy, the Koehler/Graveman high floor/low ceiling types might on average finish with a 4.40ERA/1.40WHIP. Whereas Gsellman might have a great ERA/WHIP in 50% of the simulations and maybe a 25% chance of sucking horribly and 25% chance of being left out of the rotation entirely. So on average, he might provide less value. But in reality if he’s demoted to AAA or if he forgets how to throw that sinker and poops the bed, you can get a replacement from waivers/FAAB that is as good as Graveman/Koehler, who even in an AL/NL only league are reserve round fodder. So you get big upside in addition to the opportunity for mediocrity, as opposed to guaranteed mediocrity. I think to make the rankings useful for actual drafting purposes they should reflect how each expert would actually draft. There would still be enough variance in that to make it interesting, IMO.

19
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Rotoholic

Easy answer — my rankings are strictly in descending dollar value order. I’m only projecting 105 innings for Gsellman, so that’s it right there. This is not the same order I’d actually draft pitchers in. Generally I’d rather have a lower IP, better ERA/WHIP guy in a shallower league. But rankings to me are simply what I’m projecting players to earn by the end of the season. That’s how end of season rankings work too. It’s clear not everyone ranks that way though. R.A. Dickey from years ago is a perfect example of this! I was always higher on him.

5