March Rankings Update – Catchers
We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season! Today we’ll have third base and catcher.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
March Updates:
February Editions:
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
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| NAME | Paul S | Brad | Mike | Jeff | Al | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Posey | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| Gary Sanchez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Willson Contreras | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4 |
| Salvador Perez | 14 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 10 |
| Russell Martin | 7 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 8 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6 |
| Evan Gattis | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 8 |
| Brian McCann | 9 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9 |
| Welington Castillo | 12 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 4 |
| Yadier Molina | 17 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 9 |
| Stephen Vogt | 11 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 16 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12 |
| Matt Wieters | 16 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 4 |
| Mike Zunino | 21 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 10 |
| Cameron Rupp | 22 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 17.0 | 16.8 | 9 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 19 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 4 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 15 | 30 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 17 | 21.2 | 20.5 | 15 |
| Wilson Ramos | 18 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 23 | 21.3 | 21.8 | 7 |
| Tom Murphy | 34 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 22.5 | 20.8 | 16 |
| Yan Gomes | 20 | 32 | 25 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 23.2 | 22.5 | 15 |
| Austin Hedges | 23 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 29 | 35 | 24.2 | 23.3 | 18 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 31 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 24.7 | 23.8 | 9 |
| James McCann | 28 | 27 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 25 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 7 |
| Derek Norris | 25 | 19 | 34 | 32 | 26 | 29 | 27.5 | 28.0 | 15 |
| Tony Wolters | 13 | 29 | 33 | 31 | 35 | 27 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 22 |
| Jason Castro | 38 | 38 | 31 | 22 | 28 | 20 | 29.5 | 29.8 | 18 |
| Sandy Leon | 30 | 33 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 6 |
| Chris Herrmann | 29 | 28 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 40 | 30.3 | 29.3 | 15 |
| Tyler Flowers | 37 | 34 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 36 | 30.8 | 31.0 | 13 |
| Andrew Susac | 26 | 23 | 29 | 30 | 41 | 38 | 31.2 | 30.8 | 18 |
| Blake Swihart | 24 | 24 | 60 | 37 | 32 | 33 | 35.0 | 31.5 | 36 |
| Jett Bandy | 36 | 39 | 28 | 51 | 36 | 26 | 36.0 | 34.8 | 25 |
| Martin Maldonado | 33 | 41 | 39 | 33 | 41 | 39 | 37.7 | 38.0 | 8 |
| Geovany Soto | 39 | 41 | 26 | 35 | 31 | 55 | 37.8 | 36.5 | 29 |
| Austin Barnes | 41 | 36 | 36 | 43 | 41 | 30 | 37.8 | 38.5 | 13 |
| Chris Iannetta | 27 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 55 | 40.0 | 39.5 | 28 |
| Miguel Montero | 35 | 37 | 45 | 51 | 41 | 32 | 40.2 | 39.5 | 19 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 32 | 40 | 60 | 51 | 33 | 28 | 40.7 | 39.0 | 32 |
You guys all have Gattis ranked as a starter in all league sizes. Where do you see his playing time coming from with the additions of McCann, Beltran and Reddick?
I think you can ask much the same thing of Contreras. If Schwarber hits like everyone expects him to hit, he is going to play. Maddon is going to have to balance PT between Schwarber, Zobrist and Baez between 2B and LF so Schwarber will be pushed to C quite often. Then at C, Montero is probably going to get crunched for PT but will still get some games back there. Unless they push Heyward to CF and free up a corner OF spot or trade Montero, I don’t see where Contreras is going to get more than 300 to maybe 400 PA.
I think Contreras is going to play as the everyday catcher. I would be very surprised to see Schwarber behind the dish very often. The most important thing for Schwarber is to stay healthy. Catching will not help him stay healthy.
Gattis I do see having some playing time concerns. However Beltran and Reddick are not beacons of health, and McCann isn’t going to play every day. I see maybe an even split behind the dish, and Gattis will find his way in the lineup.
I agree with you on Contreras. With Gattis, that’s all conjecture and maybe it’s fine if you’re playing in a roto format but I don’t see how can take him in an H2H league.
No, Schwarber will not be “pushed to catcher quite often”… there is absolutely no talk of that in Chicago. Management has made it quite clear that he’s an emergency/once every couple of weeks guy. Schwarber has even admitted as much. Bryant, Russell, and Rizzo are the only guaranteed full time starters. Heyward’s playing time will depend on his offense. I’d bet about 500PA for the rest of the guys as Maddon wants to keep everybody fresh.
I was basing that on a few articles from a month or two ago where Schwarber was saying he wanted to stay in the mix at catcher. I do see now that in the last week or so Maddon is saying Schwarber is effectively the emergency catcher and probably won’t even top 75 innings at catcher, mostly in late-inning matchup situations.
My bad. . . .
Oh snap, I missed that, too. Last I’d heard was that he was supposed to get into the rotation with some regularity.
Sorry if that first line or two was a little “forceful”. You’re right, Schwarber really wants to, the team is trying to steer him away without squashing his dream.
No worries Brians – good info to have as it will probably affect playing time for someone. I thought Schwarber was going to catch at least a little bit. Now I know he probably isn’t.
If Schwarber shows he can handle left field full time defensively, he’s going to catch very infrequently. The lineup is so much better with Schwarber in LF, Heyward in CF, and Zobrist in RF with Contreras behind the plate.
Contreras will get 400+ PAs and start 120 games behind the plate.
Cue the Schwarber suckers
hey…hey…easy now
Babe Schwarber has 275 major League ABs
amazing to me he gets this kind of ranking at Catcher…
But you are ok with Sanchez’s ranking?
Sanchez has nearly 500 ab above AA ball and is a catcher
schwarber has 67 AAA ab and isn’t a catcher
So yeah I am
Now he’s Kershaw at C http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-rankings-update-catchers/#comment-931492
I’m having trouble understanding what could possibly justify ranking Schwarber anything but #1 in the rare format (looking at you, Yahoo!) where he’s actually eligible. I mean, he shouldn’t be eligible. But if he is, he’s a freaking catcher hack. He is going to obliterate Lucroy’s and Sanchez’s production to a comical degree. Here is just from Depth Charts (I personally think they are low on both Schwarber’s production and playing time, but it still makes the point):
Schwarber: .254/.345/.497, 30 HR, 167 R+RBI, 5 SB
Lucroy: .278/.345/.439, 14 HR, 124 R+RBI, 3 SB
Sanchez: .262/.321/.491, 27 HR, 152 R+RBI, 5 SB
Posey: .297/.365/.459, 16 HR, 147 R+RBI, 3 SB
I’ll grant you one thing: I don’t play in any AVG leagues, so I understand that is a boost to Posey and Lucroy. But surely Schwarber *doubling* their HRs and dominating in counting stats makes up for the one-category deficit of AVG? So even in standard leagues it’s Schwarber in a landslide. In superior formats (e.g., OPS leagues, OBP leagues, 6×6 with walks, points leagues, etc.) the gap between Schwarber and other catchers is comparable to the gap between Kershaw and other starters.
I dont get it either. Schwarber is going to be the top Catcher just for the simple fact he doesnt have to catch on a regular basis and will play every day. Even if he disappoints he should still accumulate enough counting stats to be at least a top 3 catcher because not only is he playing daily, he’s batting leadoff.
We’re on the same page but even “at least a top 3 catcher” sells him short. Unless these rankers are pricing in some fluke injury (which would be foolish — if anything Schwarber is *less* likely to get hurt than *actual catchers*), no other catchers have any prayer of out-earning him.
Yes because he was SO healthy in the outfield last year.
My crystal ball is broken, can you tell me which players are going to get hurt this year. If not we have to go on the assumption that he is healthy.
You’re greatly underrating the impact of the AVG. But LOL at calling him the Kershaw of catchers.
In my valuations the Schwarber-Posey gap is significantly larger than the Kershaw-Scherzer gap. That’s a 6×6 league with standard categories (including AVG) plus walks.
I admit I haven’t run a valuation on standard leagues. But I doubt I’m underestimating the impact of the AVG. Posey beating Schwarber .300 to .260 is no doubt impactful, but Schwarber has a comparable-looking edge in R+RBI and, like I said, *double* the homers. How can double the homers not overcome the AVG difference?
Overcome the AVG to have a Kershawian impact? There’s just no way.
On the Auction Calculator, I can’t get Schwarber into C, but Sanchez is 15 R+RBI and 3 HR+SB lower with an 8 pt better AVG and he’s .40 cents higher than Posey. I’m sorry, but you’re doing something wrong if your numbers are suggesting a Kershawian advantage for Schwarber. Just the fact that he’s heavily deficient in one of the categories prevents such a thing from happening.
You’re basically looking for 2016 Gattis from Schwarber +37 R/RBI. Gattis was 4th last year among C and the 37 R/RBI will make up some of the $5 gap to 1st, but it certainly wouldn’t yield a Kershawian effect. As someone ALWAYS does when we rank catchers, you’re overrating Schwarber.
Edit to fix the link: https://goo.gl/2g3B4i
I concede to this extent: In true standard leagues (5×5 with two catchers, which you’ve linked to here), you’re probably right that Schwarber is, at best, in the mix for #1 — and not wayy ahead as I suggested.
But look what happens when I make some minor alterations to your settings. These are the lineups I play (1 catcher, 3 OF, no MI/CI), and BBs are a sixth cat. In the link below you can see the positional $ for catcher is $32 more than OF (compare Schwarber with Contreras, who shows up a few slots below him). If you added that to Schwarber in these settings, he would be worth $40, 4th among hitters. But, on the other hand… these settings are showing Posey and Sanchez as also worth $39, so whatever this catcher boost is is way too aggressive for my taste.
http://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx?type=OF&proj=fangraphsdc&pos=1,1,1,1,3,1,0,0,0,1,6,3,0,3,0&dollars=260&teams=12&mp=10&msp=5&mrp=5&mb=1&split=&points=c|0,1,2,3,4,13|0,1,2,3,4,12&lg=MLB&rep=0&drp=0&pp=C,SS,2B,3B,OF,1B&players=
Anyway, my valuation system is definitely working properly. I have a catcher boost tailored to my own preference, but I also have Schwarber projections that are higher than Depth Charts (I’ll think he’ll hit better than his 2015 line, not worse). All told, Schwarber has a Kershaw-ian edge over Posey in my 6×6 (BBs) Yahoo league. He’s not C-eligible in my OBP/SLG league, but if he were, his edge would again be Kershaw-ian. But again, it’s in large part because my personal projections take the ‘over’ on Kyle versus Depth Charts
LOL, I just caught “superior formats”, too. This comment is too rich. You’re just wrong about the AVG stuff, btw. Comically so, in fact.
“superior formats” was a lighthearted jab. Sorry if I gave offense.
I’m not sure in what sense you mean I’m “wrong” about AVG. I used the projections from Depth Charts. I see a ~40-point gap in AVG between Schwarber and Posey. Are you telling me I’m wrong that such a gap overcome by a significant gap in R and RBI and an enormous gap in HR?
Schwarber over Lucroy is an even easier case. As for Sanchez (my personal C1 in non-Schwarber formats), they have nearly identical profiles with Schwarber playing more games and not subject to the rigors of catching.
I wasn’t offended, I kinda dismissed you a bit bc of it 🙂
You’re the man Paul. My FanGraphs handle is unrelated, but we’ve chatted about your pod numerous times on twitter.
I appreciate you listening and engaging on Twitter/in the comments. Always enjoy discussing things, even when someone is hella wrong 😉
This disagreement just lies in upside vs risk management. It’s possible he outproduces Posey, but so many things would have to go right for that to happen. I think there’s a non 0% chance pitchers adjust, he hits a sophomore slump, he bats .010 against lefties, and Cubs can easily justify sending him to AAA to grow because of their depth.
The misvaluation of AVG might be the result of treating it like a count stat. If you have a guy who hits 15 HR fewer than a competitive fantasy starter at his position, you can make it up with 3 guys elsewhere in your lineup who each hit 5 HR more at their respective positions. Those guys are not hard to find. But AVG doesn’t work this way…the distribution is much much narrower, so it’s harder to make up lost ground. And it’s that much more valuable to have a high outlier like Posey.
I’m with you on being more optimistic about Schwarber than the projections, but I also don’t think you can ignore certainty or confidence in the projection when evaluating. Schwarber might be good, Posey almost certainly will be. You could say the same thing about Sanchez and Contreras – they might be good, Posey and probably Lucroy almost certainly will be good.
I’d take Posey #1 for sure but Schwarber is in the mix behind that. His ceiling is way too high to not take a gamble after Posey IMO. Sure he might scuffle a bit and end up in a scrum for PT with Zobrist, but he could also go .280/40/110 RBI and 100 runs.
BTW, another reason I love Posey over everyone else is that he WILL hit 3rd or 4th for his team. Everyone else, including Schwarber, probably will not except maybe Lucroy. To me, batting order position is a huge factor and I want guys who hit 3rd or 4th. Lineup position is pretty much the only thing that makes Matt Kemp a viable fantasy option for example.
Schwarber bats lead-off for one of the best offenses in baseball.
Which would hurt his RBI+R quite a bit, would it not? He won’t be driving in as many RBI when he’s batting first.
Want a sock?
Given that Schwarber played 0 games at C last year, he’s not eligible there in my league until he gets to 10 games. That might take a while – a month or so? My point is, I imagine in many formats you cannot start Schwarber at C to start the year so you’ll need a back-up plan.
Expect maddon to start schwarber in the OF on days he’s in the lineup vs RHP and then bring him in to catch a couple innings to get a better defensive OF for the late innings
I think maddon is committed to Contreras and Montero as starters
More like Allstar break, if you are lucky
I think there might be a mathematical mistake on Mike’s rankings. Unless Mike actually ranked 59 catchers, it seems like the “N+1” ranking policy for Alfaro and Swihart should produce a different score?
He did rank 59 Cs
Impressive. And weird that he doesn’t think Swihart/Alfaro will get enough PT to nose into the top 59.
Contreras had great results (including lots of PH homers) but after examining the contact quality & xStats, I’m selling.
Just 1 PH hr, guess I was thinking of others he hit as a late inning substitute.
Was going to join the Schwarber fanboy bandwagon but there’s no more food left to hurl at one another, so…
Surprised to see Realmuto so high here. Depth, Steamer, and ZIPS all have him at or below 100 R+RBI. 10 jacks isn’t much if we depend on 10 swipes from a C for him to return value. This just screams downside risk to me, so I won’t own him anywhere.
As for Sanchez v. Lucroy, even though I tend to the trustworthy established guys, I have Sanchez about $5 higher in my 348 player 2C league (12×23 w/ 6 bench).
Pretty confident one or both of McCann/Gattis will implode due to competition in lineup and at position. Wither AJ Reed.
Good day, I have our draft tomorrow and was trying to figure out who could be this years version of 2016 J Lucroy at the thin C position. I was able to snag him last year coming off a down and injury riddled 2015…who fits that bill for 2017???