Low-Ownership Starters for Thursday (9/21)

by
September 20, 2017

The march towards inning caps and strikeout titles continues with today’s lowly owned pitchers (<10% in Yahoo! leagues)

Gabriel Ynoa (0% owned) vs. Rays (Matt Andriese)

I spent way too much time analyzing Ynoa (I’ve decided to do a Quick Look on him and Leiter tomorrow). He’s shown some major-league talent and may just be one pitch from being a top-50 starting pitcher.

The 24-year-old throws a 4-seamer, sinker,  and a slider. He throws his slider (35%) more than either fastball (28% for each) to help his strikeout numbers. This season, he has allowed an above average rate of flyballs (32% GB%) but maintained a respectable 1.1 HR/9. His 7.6 K/9 is reasonable, especially paired up with a 1.9 BB/9. Both values are in line with his recent minor-league performance. Signs point to a potential sleeper but I have my doubts about a pitcher’s upside with only one breaking pitch.

I would gladly start him this game against Tampa who leads the majors in striking out. My only reservation is if he gives up too many home runs in Camden Yards and runs up his ERA.

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Matt Andriese (8% owned) vs Orioles (Gabriel Ynoa)

I think teams must use Andriese and hope his home run nature doesn’t show up, which easily could happen by pitching in Camden Yards. The 7.8 K/9 is streamer acceptable and the Orioles strike out a decent amount. I’d be more excited if I thought Ynoa was just a late-season fill-in.

Carson Fulmer (7% owned) at Houston (Dallas Keuchel)

Fulmer is a strikeout-only play for this start. His walks will kill his WHIP (he’s not keeping a .191 BABIP going forever). Home runs, along with the walks, will kill his ERA. He’s facing the Astros with Keuchel on the bump so the Win chances are at a low.

Homer Bailey (2% owned) vs Cardinals (Carlos Martinez)

Bailey must have taken my recommendation to stay away from him in his last start by striking out seven, walking just two, and collecting a Win. I’m not impressed. I’m staying away with all his ERA estimators pointing to a 5.00+ ERA with an ERA (6.86) even higher.

Adalberto Mejia (0% owned) at Tigers (Jordan Zimmermann)

Mejia falls into the, “if you must use him … well OK but good f’ing luck” category. He could get some strikeouts (7.7 K/9) and the Win. The rest could be ugly. In his last start, he made it only three innings giving up three runs. A desperate play for a desperate owner.

Mark Leiter (5% owned) vs Dodgers (Kenta Maeda)

While Leiter wouldn’t be my first option among these starters, he’s startable. His 8.5 K/9 is nice. His 2017 problems begins-and-ends with the home runs he has given up in the minors (1.5 HR/9) and the majors (1.8 HR/9). He was never home run prone in the minors, so some downward regression is possible.

Two reasons are keeping me from recommending him more. The start is in Philly (high scoring park) and it’s against the Dodgers (low chance for Win)

Ynoa
Andriese
Leiter
.
.
.
Mejia
Fulmer (strikeouts only)
.
Bailey





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Garyth
8 years ago

Should also mention that Danny Salazar is being inserted back into the starting rotation for the Indians, and may have been dropped in a lot of competitive leagues. Where would you rank him relative to your recommendations?

0
Francis C.
8 years ago
Reply to  Garyth

FWIW I would rank him at the top.

0
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
8 years ago
Reply to  Francis C.

Easily at the top

1