Waiver Wire Report (9/18/22)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Oscar Gonzalez: He has kept his second-half launch angle up (55% 1H GB%, 46% 1H GB%) thereby leading to more power across the board.

Stat: 1H, 2H
HR/FB: 9%, 17%
ISO: .146, .210
HR: 2, 7

Prorating out his second-half home runs would put him at a full-season pace of around 25 HR. Not bad when paired with a .300 AVG.

Jake Fraley: After missing a couple of games from a hit-by-pitch, he’s back (.240 AVG, 10 HR, 3 SB in 198 PA). He’s still sitting against lefties (.493 OPS vs LHP, .858 OPS vs RHP) but the Reds aren’t scheduled to face any next week.

Bubba Thompson: Thompson is a stolen base machine with 15 in just 129 PA. While he has only 1 HR, he does have a .280 AVG.

Josh Jung: Jung is a man of extremes

.531 SLG
.429 BABIP
50% K%
0% BB%

He’s still getting fed a steady dose of sliders (33% seen, 35% SwStr%).

Rodolfo Castro: Castro has been a pleasant surprise by hitting .234/.294/.431 with 9 HR and 5 SB while starting in 15 straight games.

Aristides Aquino: He’s started 12 straight (1 vs LHP). In September, he’s hitting .327/.377/.755 with 5 HR.

Albert Pujols: Now that St. Louis is starting him against righties (six straight) he is worth rostering since he’s hitting .328/.385/.724 in the second half. My only worry might be limited playing time if he hits #700.

Elvis Andrus: He has been insane with the White Sox hitting .321/.362/.541 with 6 HR and 4 SB in 116 PA. Ride the hot streak.

TJ Friedl: The Reds have faced 11 righties in a row and Friedl has started in all those games. Next week, he is scheduled to only face righties again. In 210 PA, he is hitting .259/.319/.454 with 6 HR and 6 SB.

Lane Thomas: He has leadoff in every game in September while hitting .323/.391/.484 (1 HR, 1 SB) during that time.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: He has been a positive contributor in stolen bases (20) and batting average (.270). Just don’t expect any power.

AJ Pollock: He’s been better in the second half (.602 1H OPS to .761 2H OPS) with 7 HR in 197 PA.

Jack Suwinski: While he has been a decent source of power this season (16 HR), it comes with a low batting average (.196 AVG, 31% K%) and sporadic playing time.

David Villar: He had 10 straight starts, then two days off, and now two starts. Freaking Giants. On the season, he’s hitting .221/.339/.433 with 5 HR and 0 SB in 124 PA.

Seth Brown: He continues to only start against righties and faces just five of them next week.

Mark Mathias: While effective in a small sample (.302/.366/.635, 6 HR, 3 SB), he only starts against lefties and the Rangers are scheduled to face two next week. Watch to see if he starts against the scheduled lefty (Springs) on Sunday.

Tony Kemp: Kemp (.231/.308/.327, 6 HR, 8 SB) leads off against righties with five on the schedule for next week.

Garrett Cooper: Cooper was probably being added for his eight-game week but Lewin Díaz has gotten three straight starts at first base. Cooper is not relevant (.259 AVG, 8 HR, 0 SB) if not playing every day.

Tyler Naquin: Naquin (.821 OPS vs RHP) looked to have a good week with six righties on the schedule but he started against only two of the first four.

Romy Gonzalez: He was starting all the time for a while but just five starts in the last nine games. He has an interesting profile with a .404 BABIP, 31% K%, and 50% GB%.

Catchers

Eric Haase: Started at catcher in eight of the last 10 games while hitting .251/.301/.439 with 12 HR on the season.

Elias Díaz: Seven home games next week where he is hitting .269/.315/.487 with 7 HR this season.

Danny Jansen: He’s been fine as a catcher this season with 12 HR and a .254 AVG while playing about 40% of the time.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Josh Jung 3B TEX 40% 48% 8%
Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE 34% 52% 18%
A.J. Pollock LF CHW 34% 39% 5%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS NYY 33% 37% 4%
Jake Fraley LF CIN 33% 37% 4%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 33% 36% 3%
Albert Pujols DH STL 31% 33% 2%
Elias Diaz C COL 24% 26% 2%
Elvis Andrus SS CHW 23% 43% 20%
Lane Thomas LF WAS 22% 29% 7%
TJ Friedl CF CIN 20% 26% 6%
Garrett Cooper 1B MIA 20% 23% 3%
Eric Haase C DET 17% 25% 8%
Danny Jansen C TOR 17% 24% 7%
Bubba Thompson LF TEX 17% 22% 5%
Tyler Naquin LF NYM 14% 17% 3%
Tony Kemp 2B OAK 9% 11% 2%
Jack Suwinski LF PIT 6% 8% 2%
Rodolfo Castro SS PIT 4% 7% 3%
David Villar 3B SF 3% 11% 8%
Romy Gonzalez 2B CHW 3% 5% 2%
Aristides Aquino RF CIN 2% 7% 5%
Mark Mathias DH TEX 1% 3% 2%

Starters

Wade Miley: He has been decent this year with a 2.89 ERA (4.02 xFIP), 1.14 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9. He is lined up to face Miami and Pittsburgh next week.

Drew Smyly: He draws the Marlins next week. He’s been on fire this month with an 11.0 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, and 3.00 ERA. He’s just been leaning into his changeup (~40% usage, 21% SwStr%, 78% GB%).

José Suarez: A reasonable two-start week (vs SEA, at MIN). He’s started leaning into his slider (13% SwStr%, 26% GB%) and in the second half has a 2.14 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 8.2 ERA.

Bailey Falter: While he has been OK (3.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.7 K/9), he might not be in the rotation with the return of Zack Wheeler. Update: He’s to remain in the rotation with Noah Syndergaard going to the bullpen.

Roansy Contreras: It is going to be a two-start week for Conteras at the Yankees and versus the Cubs. A .258 BABIP has kept his ERA down at 3.24 while having a 3.8 BB/9. There are worse options.

Ryne Nelson: He hasn’t allowed a run yet and starts Sunday against the Padres. His 3.63 xFIP in 13 IP is encouraging. He is leaning heavily on his rising fastball (10 SwStr%, 30% GB%). Scheduled to face the Giants next week.

Adrian Sampson 샘슨: He’s been a bit lucky (.292 BABIP, 0.9 HR/9) to have a 3.48 ERA with just a 6.3 K/9. He is scheduled to get at least one start against Miami and then possibly two starts the next week against Philly and Cincinnati.

Mitch Keller: One start against the Cubs. So far this season, he has been fine (4.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9).

Javier Assad: Besides a 2.53 ERA (4.43 xFIP) the rest of his stats are uninspiring (1.41 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 43 GB%). He faces Pittsburgh this week.

Zack Greinke: Two starts (MIN and SEA) for the vet who has a 4.10 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 5.1 K/9. Probably can be ignored.

Drey Jameson: I don’t have time to really dig into him. He was OK in AAA with a 8.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 49% GB%. He allowed no runs in his MLB debut going with a rising fastball, sinker (83% GB%), and slider (27% SwStr%). He might have one more start against the Dodgers and the schedule after that isn’t easy (SF, HOU, SF).

Kyle Freeland: Two home starts against the Giants and Padres where he has a 5.74 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Hard pass.

Luis Cessa: In the middle of a two-start week and got lit up by the Pirates in the first start (5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 1 BB, 8 H). He and his 5.25 ERA faces the Cardinals on Sunday. Likely faces the Brewers next week.

Mike Minor: He’s been horrible (6.06 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.0 K/9) with no signs of improvement. Ignore.

Konnor Pilkington: Made a spot start for Cleveland but looks to be headed back to the bullpen with Aaron Civale coming off the IL.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Roansy Contreras SP PIT 37% 40% 3%
Zack Greinke SP KC 35% 37% 2%
Bailey Falter SP PHI 29% 39% 10%
Jose Suarez SP LAA 29% 34% 5%
Drew Smyly SP CHC 28% 38% 10%
Mitch Keller SP PIT 23% 25% 2%
Kyle Freeland SP COL 17% 19% 2%
Wade Miley SP CHC 14% 16% 2%
Mike Minor SP CIN 12% 16% 4%
Ryne Nelson SP ARI 11% 22% 11%
Adrian Sampson RP CHC 3% 6% 3%
Javier Assad SP CHC 3% 6% 3%
Drey Jameson SP ARI 2% 4% 2%
Konnor Pilkington SP CLE 2% 4% 2%
Luis Cessa RP CIN 2% 4% 2%

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

Pete Fairbanks: Great reliever who is getting most of the saves.

José Leclerc: Average reliever who is the closer.

Dylan Floro: Below-average reliever who is the closer

James Karinchak: Back to being a great reliever who is the backup closer.

CBS Closer Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Peter Fairbanks RP TB 39% 49% 10%
James Karinchak RP CLE 15% 17% 2%
Dylan Floro RP MIA 9% 13% 4%
Jose Leclerc RP TEX 5% 14% 9%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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E-Dub
17 days ago

Very interested to see how Jameson does going forward. I don’t know that I’ve seen anyone post such relentlessly poor results as he did in Triple-A yet somehow pull a brilliant mlb debut out of his posterior.