Let’s Talk AL SP, Brls/BBE Allowed, & HR/FB

Earlier this year, I introduced the new xHR/FB rate that uses Statcast’s Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) metric. While the equation was for hitters, Brls/BBE is still a useful data point for pitchers. Luckily, the Statcast leaderboard has the exact same metrics for pitchers as hitters, including Brls/BBE. Let’s lets discuss some American league starting pitchers from a Brls/BBE and HR/FB rate perspective. Given the hitter xHR/FB rate formula, you know that Brls/BBE and HR/FB rate correlate rather strongly. A mismatch will typically mean some sort of regression in either of the stats.

Averages in my population of 71 AL SPs (unweighted for barreled ball events and fly balls):

Brls/BBE — 6.8%
HR/FB — 13.7%

Let’s begin by looking at the best team in the American League:

Holy cow long ball! Remember the averages above this table…every starter except Mike Fiers has posted a better than average Brls/BBE, but with the exception of Lance McCullers, all have skyhigh HR/FB rates. Then there’s Fiers, who probably doesn’t deserve a HR/FB rate this high, but he’s certainly allowing an insane rate of hard contact. So what the heck is going on in Houston? Wait a sec…

Brad Peacock is an Astros starter too! And look at that minuscule HR/FB rate. BUT! His Brls/BBE is also second lowest among my population, so that doesn’t necessarily rule out something going on in Houston. Not surprisingly, Astros pitchers “lead” the American League in HR/FB rate at 15.4%, and are second highest in home HR/FB rate at 16.4%. We have always perceived the park to be hitter and home run friendly, but the HR/FB numbers, especially given the mostly low Brls/BBE rates, seem absurd.

Out of 71 pitchers, only 13 own HR/FB rates in the single digits! That’s just 18%. Through July 18 of last season, once again 71 pitchers had thrown at least 60 innings. This time, 17 pitchers owned sub-10% HR/FB rates, or 24%. I guess this is just another way of reminding you how crazy this home run spike has become.

These four pitchers have posted well below average HR/FB rates despite Brls/BBE marks above the league average. Interesting that two Tigers make the list, while Jason Hammel has a favorable home park to count on. As a David Price owner, I see that ERA-SIERA gap and don’t feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Though it’s not actionable now, I just had to include Michael Pineda here. Any chance I can get to scream “HE’S BEEN SOOOOO UNLUCKY!”, I’ll take. Ya know, at the end of May, it looked like his ERA would finally match his skills, as he was offsetting an inflated HR/FB rate with a suppressed BABIP for a change. But since the calendar flipped to June, he fell apart, posting a 6.14 ERA (4.52 SIERA), while his strikeout rate plummeted. Hmmmmm, might his elbow injury have occurred during this stretch? Where there’s smoke…

Even if Wade Miley’s HR/FB rate improves, SIERA tells us there’s still no hope of fantasy value. And to think, he posted a 2.82 ERA (4.69 SIERA) after his first 11 starts. Since, he has been serving batting practice, posting a 10.19 ERA. He’s a good example of why I always say that early ERAs are going to catch up with SIERA sooner or later, more often than not.

Pretty amazing that Marcus Stroman has been able to escape a 17.3% HR/FB rate and .312 BABIP by posting a 3.10 ERA. This looks like a breakout, but really, his skills are identical to last year. Literally the only difference is a ten percentage point jump in LOB%, which isn’t going to be sustained. His home park is not a great place to get that HR/FB rate down, unfortunately. I’m still waiting for that strikeout rate spike, looks like we’ll all be waiting a little longer. But, he doesn’t even need it to remain a solid pitcher.