Last 30 Day Non-Closing Reliever SwStk% Leaders — Through Jul 25, 2023

I had so much fun uncovering some hidden reliever gems yesterday that I decided to go another round and discuss six more names.

Shintaro Fujinami’s MLB debut didn’t exactly go as hoped for in Oakland. He failed to convert his above average SwStk% into strikeouts and struggled badly with his control. Oh, and his LOB% was extremely poor, resulting in far more of his baserunners coming around to score than the league average. The A’s saw enough and traded him to the Orioles, where he hasn’t been any better, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings so far.

However, he has changed his pitch mix over the last 30 days, throwing his four-seamer a bit more, his cutter and slider less, and his splitter significantly more. He also gained velocity on his four-seamer and splitter, as his four-seamer has average an elite 99.6 MPH! His splitter has been his best whiff pitch, generating an elite 19.5% SwStk%, with all his other pitches are in double digits. He clearly owns an elite repertoire and seems to have figured out over this past month how to turn it into strikeouts.

Walks had been a major issue earlier in the season, but over the last 30 days, he has seemingly improved his control overnight, bringing his walk rate down to just 3.7%, compared to an inflated 15.6% earlier in the season. Since his LOB% has also normalized, he has posted a 3.07 ERA, backed by a 2.52 SIERA. I think the Orioles did well here trading for him and as scary as it might be to both pick him up and start him on your deep league team, I think he could continue to be dominant, though that control may come and go.

Once upon a time, Jeff Hoffman was a top pitching prospect for the Rockies, even ranking third best on the team 47th overall. The problem is, there’s really no such thing as a Rockies pitching prospect and he ended up never posting an ERA better than 4.88 during his time there. Now a member of the Phillies and full-time reliever, Hoffman is enjoying a strikeout rate surge, driven by a jump in SwStk%. He has thrown his four-seamer less in favor of his slider, which he has nearly doubled his usage of compared to last year. Oh, and his velocity has skyrocketed on all his pitches, as he now averages 97.1 MPH on his four-seamer versus 94.4 MPH last year. That’s a massive bump.

As a result, his slider’s SwStk% has surged into the high teens, his four-seamer’s SwStk% has increased to the second highest of his career, and his splitter continues to rock. It’s a really nice three-pitch mix from a swing and miss perspective. His control still remains below average with another double digit walk rate, but with the huge uptick in strikeout rate and a sudden groundball tilt, it’s palatable. He looks like a nice deep league choice.

Now 33, Fernando Cruz first made his MLB debut last year, showing both strikeout stuff and a lack of control. He’s posted similar skills this year, but a weak LOB% has pushed his ERA well above 4.00. It’s fun to look at his pitch mix, as he has thrown three pitches all almost exactly a third of the time. That’ll really keep hitters guessing! Unfortunately, his repertoire isn’t as deep as Hoffman’s, as just one of his pitches sports a double digit SwStk%. That pitch is his splitter, which has been ridiculous at a 27.8% SwStk%, but his slider has been well below average at just 7.9% and his four-seamer has been underwhelming as well. Given his control problems and a fly ball tilt, I prefer Hoffman.

Eli Morgan continues to generate whiffs with just average velocity. He’s actually generating a career best SwStk%, but his strikeout rate has declined. All his pitches have generated double digit SwStk% marks, with his slider his best whiff pitch. I would expect a higher strikeout rate as a result, but his called strike rate remains mediocre and is holding back his strikeout rate. He has reduced his FB%, which is bad for his BABIP, but good for his HR/9. Overall, he’s a reasonable stopgap in a deep league, but with no chance of saves and lesser strikeout potential than the above names, you can do better.

Is Joe Jiménez finally making good on his former closer of the future promise? He really isn’t doing anything differently in terms of strikeouts and walks, but he has finally gotten home runs under control and is also stranding runners at the second highest clip of his career. Soooo, the luck metrics are finally in his favor, so now he looks good, even though SIERA and xERA suggests he’s really been the same pitcher over the majority of his career. Still, that’s a pretty solid reliver and he should be next in line for Braves saves if Raisel Iglesias lands on the IL or needs a day off.

Former Astros top prospect Bryan Abreu has become an elite full-time reliever. His last 30 days actually match his full season rates, so he’s not doing anything differently over the last month. He has just consistently been dominant all year. Both his strikeout rate and SwStk% spiked last year, likely in part due to a velocity surge, as his fastball went from 95.8 MPH to 97.3 MPH. This year it has inched even higher to 97.7 MPH. That helped push his four-seamer’s SwStk% into double digits and slider above 20%. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, but those are two really good pitches. Again, the saves potential here is low, even though he has recorded three this year, but he’s a perfect stopgap in deep leagues to protect your ratios and potentially provide more strikeouts than a low-end starter.