Last 30 Day AL Hitter HardHit% Gainers — Aug 9, 2021

Hitters go through slumps and hot streaks as a normal part of the season. These types of trends are magnified at the beginning of the year, but can easily get overlooked in the middle as a couple of weeks of good or poor performance don’t dramatically change the player’s full season results. It’s difficult to determine whether a hitter on a hot streak has made a legitimate change that has taken his skill level higher or is simply experiencing the standard ebbs and flows of a season. Let’s review the hitters who have posted the largest gains in HardHit% over the last 30 days. We can’t be sure if this is a new skill level, but it could be a sign of just that.

HardHit% Gainers
Name HR/FB Through 7/8 HR/FB 7/9-8/7 HardHit% Through 7/8 HardHit% 7/9-8/7 HardHit% Diff
Enrique Hernandez 10.5% 13.2% 37.3% 50.0% 12.7%
Miguel Sano 23.8% 12.5% 49.3% 61.7% 12.4%
Sean Murphy 14.1% 14.3% 39.5% 51.1% 11.6%
Gleyber Torres 4.1% 10.0% 33.7% 45.2% 11.5%
Matt Olson 18.8% 22.6% 47.0% 58.0% 11.0%
Miguel Cabrera 12.5% 15.4% 47.7% 56.7% 9.0%
Jeimer Candelario 6.9% 8.3% 37.0% 45.8% 8.8%
Brandon Lowe 24.7% 18.2% 40.0% 48.4% 8.4%
Nate Lowe 18.2% 0.0% 44.8% 52.3% 7.5%

Even with Jarren Duran’s recall, Enrique Hernandez has still found regular playing time between center field and second base. How many guesses would you have required to guess that Hernandez leads the last 30 day HardHit% gainers list? Probably a lot! It’s pretty silly that a guy sporting a career OBP of just .315 has batted leadoff for a strong offense for the majority of the year, but hey, fantasy owners could take advantage of the head-scratching decisions. The HardHit% gains have led to an increased HR/FB rate, but all that’s done is bring is season line closer to his past two seasons. It’s still just below those two marks though, so it’s doubtful this is any sort of elevated skill.

It’s not often you see a hitter with a 61.7% HardHit% and even less often you see one with such an elite mark post just a 12.5% HR/FB rate, which is worse than league average. But Miguel Sano has accomplished both of those over the last 30 days. His season HR/FB rate has decline to its lowest mark since 20018, but at least he has cut his strikeout rate somewhat. It’s still extremely high though, especially if he’s not hitting 30% of his fly balls over the wall. I would expect improved HR/FB rate performance over the rest of the year to closer to what was expected for him.

Sean Murphy’s HardHit% has improved, but his HR/FB rate has barely budged. The 26-year-old’s ISO and HR/FB rate has dropped since last year, but he also now first have a full season’s worth of stats to evaluate. His underlying skills suggest he’s deserving of a higher HR/FB rate, but a low BABIP has been an issue. As a fly ball hitter with a low LD%, he’ll need to make some batted ball distribution adjustments or he’ll continue being a batting average drain.

Gleyber Torres has been better recently, but that’s not saying much when he opened the first half so weakly. Seriously, what happened to his power? He seemed like an obvious rebound candidate off last year’s power outage, but it’s actually gotten worse this year. It’s bizarre because his maxEV is actually at the highest of his career and at 111.5, which is a healthy number for a power hitter. His random 11 steals have prevented him from being a total bust. I still think better power is coming, but I also thought that heading into the season. It’s hard not to believe more power is coming given his age, home park, and history.

I’m surprised Matt Olson’s season HR/FB rate sits just below 20%, as it seems like he homers every game when I check the Athletics box score. Maybe it’s my recency bias since as he’s been better over the last 30 days, but not dramatically so. Actually, the most exciting thing this year is he has almost halved his strikeout rate. That’s pretty incredible actually and possibly why it feels like he’s homering every game. His homer total is better, but not because of more homers per fly ball, but instead because of the much improved contact. One look at his plate discipline metrics tells us what’s happening here — he’s swinging more at pitches inside the strike zone and therefore taking a lower rate of called strikes. That’s what all hitters should be doing, so it’s just a question of whether he’ll continue this newfound in-zone aggressiveness or revert back to his previously level of being a bit more passive.

The Miguel Cabrera decline continues, as his wOBA now sits at its lowest mark…ever. His ISO is a bit above his 2019 low, while his HR/FB rate is in line with his 2017-2018 marks. His strikeout rate has jumped again, this time to the highest mark since his 2003 debut. His last 30 day hot streak is fun, but I think the writing is on the wall here. It’s interesting to note his maxEV still remains very strong, so he still has the power in his bat, but perhaps he simply can’t get to it as frequently as he used to.

So Jeimer Candelario has alternated between high single digit HR/FB rates and low-to-mid teen marks, making it difficult to predict what you’ll get in any given season. His HardHit% has jumped the last 30 days, but his HR/FB rate still remained in single digits. There’s actually a solid foundation of skills here as he owns a double digit walk rate, his strikeout rate is fine, supported by a decent SwStk%, and his batted ball profile is solid, heavy on line drives. His maxEV has sat above 110 for four straight seasons, yet he has been so inconsistent, and mediocre at best, with that HR/FB rate. The profile kind of reminds me of former teammate Nick Castellanos who finally exploded after departing Detroit. He hasn’t shown a whole lot more power in away parks, but I still wonder if another change in venue would jumpstart his offense. I do feel like this is the kind of profile to gamble on cheaply in a deep league with the thinking a major breakout could come at any time.

Brandon Lowe’s HardHit% has risen, while his HR/FB rate has declined over the last 30 days, but both of those rates are right in line with his career numbers. A low BABIP has been the biggest issue this year, and as a fly ball hitter who has lost some line drive rate this year, it’s not a lock he’ll get that BABIP back up.

I had to double check Nate Lowe’s game logs to make sure I didn’t mess up my table, and in doing so, can confirm that Lowe hasn’t homered since July 1, when he hit two dingers. Lowe opened the year strongly, making me regret not being more aggressive in targeting him, but his power has completely disappeared since. In fact, since April, his highest ISO in a month has been just .135. That’s not what we expected from Lowe. The most bizarre thing is these splits. He has somehow managed to post a strong HardHit% over the last 30 days, but has inexplicably failed to homer. Now the one caveat that I haven’t yet mentioned is these HardHit% marks include all batted ball types. I could have run just fly balls and found that his fly ball HardHit% is actually down (I haven’t looked). Still, for a guy who has posted high teen and low 20% HR/FB rates in the minors, with 65 grade Raw Power and 50/60 Game Power, it’s surprising to see him continuing to hit the ball hard but fail to homer in more than a one month stretch. He’s also struggled to lift the ball as his FB% sits below 30%, which is not what you want from a supposed power hitter.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Anon
2 years ago

Nate Lowe (apparently he wants to be called Nathaniel Lowe) hits wayyyy too many GB to be fantasy relevant. OVer those last 30 days he has the 2nd lowest FB% at 18.2% (Tapia is 1st at 13.6%). So far in his career he’s a GB hitter who strikes out a lot. He hits the ball hard so he’ll probably always run high BABIPs but I can’t see him being fantasy relevant without fixing one of those 2 things