KC Royals Rotation: Depth Chart Discussions
Few teams have experienced as much of a dramatic overhaul to the starting rotation this winter as have the Kansas City Royals. The starters underperformed in 2012, posting a combined 5.01 ERA, and the organization brought new blood. In fact, the Royals could conceivably break camp with a starting rotation that features five pitchers who were not on the 25-man roster last year on Opening Day. Crazy.
The top four starters in spring training are guaranteed spots in the rotation, according to manager Ned Yost. That means James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis will anchor the staff for the Royals to begin the season. That also means the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation has not been settled, and four pitchers are vying for the opportunity to break camp as a starter: Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, and Will Smith.
Left-hander Bruce Chen lulled the AL Central to sleep in 2011, nibbling his way to a 3.77 ERA over 155.0 innings, but his magic seemed to subside last year. His BABIP rose 26 points to .304, his strand rate dropped, and his home-run rate rose. That combination led to a 5.07 ERA in 2012 and put him in danger of losing his starting role this spring. For fantasy owners, whether he starts or relieves shouldn’t matter. He’s still not worth owning in any fantasy format. He hasn’t reached his career-average strikeout rate — which is already below-average at 6.78 K/9 — since the 2003 season, and ZiPS forecasts another year for a 5.00+ ERA. Stay away.
Once a first-overall pick in the 2006 draft, Luke Hochevar has perennially been a disappointment for the Royals, as he owns a career 5.39 ERA (4.46 FIP) in six seasons. Until he can strikeout enough batters to make it worth taking a chance that the ERA may drop, he’s undraftable. I would actually like to see Hochevar transition to the bullpen and become strictly a fastball-slider guy. His slider is arguably his best pitch, and his fastball might play up in shorter stints.
Luis Mendoza had the best ERA (4.23) and FIP (4.28) of the four starters competing for the final spot in the rotation. He generates ground balls and throws with above-average velocity for a starter, but he doesn’t project to provide anything valuable to fantasy owners. His 5.64 K/9 strikeout rate was well below average last year, as was his brutal 1.42 WHIP. The Royals’ offense may help him log a few wins if they improve from a disappointing season, but that’s about as far as it goes. No real help here, either.
Finally, Will Smith is a 23-year-old southpaw who may have the hardest time cracking the rotation on Opening Day. He got his first cup of coffee with the Royals last year, but struggled to a 5.32 ERA in 89.2 innings. His strikeout rate was below average and his WHIP was a ghastly 1.61. Part of it was the .340 BABIP, but part of it was his inability to miss bats. The left-hander only compiled a 6.4% swinging-strike rate and a 28.2% O-Swing%, which is below the 30.7% average for starting pitchers last year. If he can continue his strong start to the spring, he could sneak into the fifth spot, but it wouldn’t be anything worth celebrating for fantasy owners. He’s going to have to show dramatic improvement before he can threaten being selected on draft day.
In terms of parsing out the rotation depth chart for the Kansas City Royals, it’s rock-solid until reaching the fifth spot. It appears to be a wide-open race this spring. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners, none of the four options project to be worth drafting to begin the season.
Don’t forget about left-hander Danny Duffy, though. The 24-year-old lefty was throwing 95 mph and striking out more than a batter per inning before Tommy John surgery ended his season. He could return midseason and be an under-the-radar pickup off the waiver wire. Simply keep tabs on his rehab this season — he threw a 30-pitch bullpen session last week — and monitor his eventual minor-league tuneups to see if he’s worth adding, as he should be a better option than any of the four potential fifth starters discussed above.
EARLY DEPTH CHART
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
I think F. Paulino might be worth mentioning as well. If both he and Duffy come back healthy midseason, I could see E. Santana being flipped at the deadline.
Yeah I agree about Paulino. I had thought his TJS occurred much later than Duffy’s, but actually they were only about 3 weeks apart.
How come you don’t talk about how the four guaranteed pitchers offer for a fantasy perspective? I want peoples opinions on how good Shields will still be without TB’s fielding and shift. Also can Wade Davis turn his success in the bullpen into any in the rotation. What kind of innings limit will he be on.
Shields’ away splits are pretty damn bad. His FIP jumps from 3.37 to 4.38, strikes out less, walks more, and gives up more homers. I’d consider it a huge red flag that Dayton Moore ignored. Then again, he starts Frenchy in left, so what the hell do I know.
Hmmm those splits are very interesting. Last year his splits were even worse, 2.82 FIP at home, 4.22 away. Not the best of signs but doesn’t exactly spell doom for him as he played more road games in the AL East and each of the other parks have positive park factors according the the fangraphs guts page. Still with the worse defense and no shifting in addition to this it probably knocks him down a tier right?
Frenchy plays right, not left.
As for the home/road splits…for the last two years, the home road splits were fine. KC has some pretty good defenders as well with Gordon and a healthy Cain in CF…Moose and Escobar in the infield, and one of the best young catchers in the game.
KC isn’t exactly a hitter friendly park either….
2012: Home 3.25/Road 3.83
2011: Home 2.36/Road 3.35
Platooning Frenchy in right (like they started to before Dyson/Cain has issues last year) is a fine option.
Do wish that there had been analysis of the locked in players, especially Shields: 8+ K/9 the last 3 years, good FIP the last two and a fine WHIP, he seems like a good option.
I agree – no comment on the top 4 starters, plus no mention of Paulino? If I wanted shallow analysis, I’d stick with the hegemon…
I had the same response as many of these posters as I was reading this: What about Paulino?
I agree with the sentiments about Shields as well. I think the Royals paid a #1 price for a #3 pitcher, and all for a 10% or so chance to win the weakest division in baseball and get swept out of the playoffs.
Winning the division, even if you get swept out of the playoffs, has monetary value, especially if you have been as bad as the Royals have.