JVL’s 2026 Lessons Learned

I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.

My three teams are oddballs:

• 20-team, keep eight forever, 7×7 head-to-head draft league on Yahoo
  • 4th place regular season, 4th place (out of eight) in the playoffs
• 12-team Ottoneu head-to-head points
  • 8th place regular season
• 12-team, keep between seven and 10 with escalating pick costs, 6×6 head-to-head on Fantrax
  • 1st place regular season, 2nd place in the playoffs

There’s a lot of overlap in managers across these leagues, and all are about as competitive as I can imagine a “home” league gets. I’m really only sour about my Ottoneu result, which informs my first lesson heading out of the season.

Lesson 1: Every decision (or lack of decision) matters

Despite, in my opinion, an objectively good Ottoneu team (2nd overall in total points in the league), I finished 11-10 and missed the playoffs. This was largely due to a few close losses throughout the year; four of my losses were decided by a total of 67 points, about 0.5% of my full-year total. Two of those losses (12- and 16-point deficits) were spread across three weeks in June to the same opponent who finished one game ahead of me in the standings and made the playoffs. In each week my hitting bench scored over 100 points, and I had more than a few cases where I missed making substitutions on time. While it wouldn’t be totally fair to say my season was cooked because I forgot to sub in Daylen Lile and TJ Rumfield a couple times in June, it also wouldn’t be totally wrong. Managers can usually afford to miss substitutions a few times here or there, but sometimes you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time and it puts you in too deep of a hole. In my defense, I had a lot going on in June – you’ll notice that’s when my article archive starts – but next year I need to stay on top of my Ottoneu team better.

Lesson 2: Don’t bet on old guys

In 2025, I was drunk on the bargain production I got from George Springer’s surprising career rebound. In 2026, I suffered the hangover. That’s not to say he was necessarily bad – he broke even in my Ottoneu league for his auction cost ($5) and was clearly rosterable in the 20-team league where I had him. But in that league, I chose him as one of my eight keepers. This, I think, was a mistake. Here were my keeper eligible starters heading out of 2025 (also a 4th place finish):

There are probably 11 players (marked with an asterisk) who, in a vacuum, were worth keeping in such a deep league. The players in green are the ones I went with. Abrams had finished 2025 ice cold and had basically given up toward the end of the year. Accordingly, I did the same to him. Meanwhile, Adames finished 2025 scorching hot and Springer had his surprising breakout.

Even at his best, Adames has been a tough player to roster in H2H formats given his penchant for streakiness. I should have had more reservations about signing up for his age-30 season in a difficult park to hit, and I should have had clearer eyes regarding Springer entering his age-36 season. And most crucially, I should not have given up on a 25-year-old who had shown several seasons of star-level talent.

Don’t get me wrong. There is still absolutely profit to be had if you’re rostering older players – as long as you get them for cheap. I had Springer for $1 in my Ottoneu league in 2025 and drafted him as a flier in my 20-team. I found Joey Votto the same way back in 2021. But counting on them for a repeat, especially at a genuine cost, has proven unwise. There doesn’t seem to be an exact analogue going into 2027, but it would be worth treating older bounce-back players (like Brandon Lowe) or who had career years (Randy Arozarena) with some amount of caution.

Lesson 3: Stay on the prospect grind

If you are in a keeper or dynasty league that allows you to roster a decent number of prospects, staying on top of the churn is critical. Every year in my Fantrax league, I try to trade at least one prospect mid-season or at the deadline:

• 2021:
  • Corbin Carroll + 10th rounder
    • for
  • Michael Conforto + Sean Manaea + Franmil Reyes
• 2023:
  • Jordan Walker + 7th rounder
    • for
  • Luis Castillo + Chris Taylor + José Abreu
• 2024:
  • Eury Pérez
    • for
  • Sandy Alcantara

This year, I made my coup of all coups: I bought low on Fernando Tatis Jr., trading Jesús Made and insignificant draft capital. I finalized the trade on July 7; from then on, he proceeded to hit .299/.379/.580 with a 20 home runs, 103 R+RBI, and 17 SB.

Maybe I’ll regret trading Made, but I felt comfortable with the trade because I was also rostering Luis Peña. Peña looks like a keeper for me – maybe I’ll hang on to him, or maybe I’ll wait for a hype machine to build before trying to trade him next year. In any case, the only trade among these that I really regret is letting Carroll go. Walker wasn’t a useful fantasy player until this year and Perez likewise only hit the 150 innings threshold this season. The draft capital I gave up in these trades isn’t nothing, but it’s also not as bad as it looks. Due to the type of inflation I highlighted a couple weeks ago, these picks play closer to four or five rounds later than their sticker price. One of my biggest aphorisms that I fall back on is that there’s a new top prospect (almost) every year. You don’t have to feel too bad about letting one go if you’re half-decent at finding the next one.

Lesson 4: Don’t draft catchers

Here is the list of 2026’s projected top catchers, compared to 2026’s actual top catchers:

In 2025, I devoted some modest draft capital on the position. I spent $16 on William Contreras in Ottoneu and used a late single-digits pick on him as a keeper in my Fantrax H2H league. He was fine but played injured for basically the entire season. Subsequently, I found Herrera on the wire in Ottoneu, which created a constant position crunch of who to start, and it felt like I never chose right. In my H2H, because of our keeper rules, he was too valuable to cut for most of the year.

Going into 2026, I said: not again. However, I couldn’t quit Contreras in Ottoneu and drafted him for $9. The problem was, I still had Herrera and was able to add Hicks for a buck on the wire, recreating a worse version of the problem I had the prior season. I eventually traded Herrera to fill a gap at another position, but that still left me juggling two catchers in a one-catcher, one-UTIL setting. In Ottoneu, I will not be rostering more than one starter-quality catcher at any point in 2027 (or so I say, we’ll see what Contreras goes for in the auction).

I was much more circumspect in my H2H leagues, where I found Dillon Dingler on the wire or very late in the draft. Though he flagged significantly to end the season, this obviously worked out for me. I might do some more detailed research on this in the off-season, but I think the catcher position is simply too volatile year-to-year to devote significant draft capital.

Lesson 5: Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make

I love trades. To me they’re the best part about managing a fantasy team and my Fantrax league is very active. Sometimes that results in a few clunkers, or would-be clunkers. In 2026 I had one perilous near-miss and another that I’m glad ultimately fell through:

• My Jesús Luzardo (with no keeper value for 2027)
  • for
• Jackson Merrill (also probably unkeepable in 2027)

and

• My 2^nd round pick + 7^th round pick + Cole Young (throw-in)
  • For
• 3^rd round pick + Aaron Judge + Dylan Cease + Mookie Betts

I made the Luzardo offer on April 18, right on heels of his early season clunkers. I think my league-mate auto rejected, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise for me. After that point, Luzardo went 13-2 with a 2.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 157 innings of ball. Turns out that it pays to be patient with pitchers who are known for their volatility.

The other trade I think is basically a fair value and was ultimately rejected because the other manager waited until the deadline and got a much better price for Cease (2nd rounder straight up) and Judge (6th rounder straight up) than I was willing to offer. I’m not too chapped about missing out here; having Cease would have been nice, but he didn’t pitch at all in the season’s final two weeks and therefore would not have contributed to the championship matchup I lost. Judge likewise played very little, and I ended up trading for Betts in a separate deal for pennies on the dollar. Had this deal gone through, I would have been out a half-round of value early in the draft – which is very important given the shape of how keeper inflation impacts the draft pool – and a seventh rounder for relatively little production. The lesson here is that while I could have easily matched or exceeded the other offers in a true all-in push, I trusted my valuations of the players. As a result, the end result of my season wasn’t affected, and my picture for 2027 is much rosier.