2021

February 8, 2021

Drafts are in full swing and now I am 10 drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2021. I will post updates every 2-4 weeks as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen

Rk	Player	Team	Position(s)	ADP	Notes
1	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	14	Even COVID couldn’t slow him down.
2	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B, OF	17.18	There are questions about his shoulder, but if healthy he could be a steal.
3	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	1B, 2B, 3B	33.63	Landing back in New York was the best case scenario.
4	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B	41.84	The MVP is about as safe as you get.
5	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B	60.53	Last year he was overrated, this year he is underrated.
6	Luke Voit	NYY	1B	69.86	Health is the only concern, but if he stays on the field, he is a monster.
7	Max Muncy	LAD	1B, 2B, 3B	102.78	Playoff performance makes me feel better about the disappointing 2020.
8	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B	56.49	Best shape of his life pics are getting people overly excited.
9	Alec Bohm	PHI	1B, 3B	104.55	Perfect mix of upside and safe floor.
10	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B	103.67	safe, unsexy player that just produces.
11	Matt Olson	OAK	1B	97.24	A ton of power, but that batting average has a ton of risk.
12	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	1B	101.86	No longer a stud, but a pretty safe floor.
13	Mike Moustakas	CIN	1B, 2B	125.84	Moose should bounce back after a weird and disappointing 2020.
14	Josh Bell	WAS	1B	155.08	Change of scenery is just what he needed.
15	Dominic Smith	NYM	1B, OF	119.45	Concerns about playing time has me starting to fade him until we know there is a DH in the NL.
16	Eric Hosmer	SD	1B	139.04	I actually buy a lot of the changes Hosmer made.
17	Rhys Hoskins	PHI	1B	181.53	If he is ready to go to start the season, he will move up a lot.
18	Christian Walker	ARZ	1B	198.88	Walker is an underrated asset.
19	Trey Mancini	BAL	1B, OF	198.96	Hard to gauge after missing 2020 with cancer, but if he is the guy we saw in 2019, then he could be a steal.
20	Miguel Sano	MIN	1B	198.78	Got to offset the average issues, but he is a power monster.
21	Yuli Gurriel	HOU	1B	249.33	I don’t think the 2019 power is coming back, but I believe he will bounceback otherwise.
22	Ryan Mount castle	BAL	1B, OF	166.1	Mountcastle has hit at every stop.
23	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	332.22	Bounced back in 2020, but I don’t think we ever see vintage Votto again.
24	Jared Walsh	LAA	1B	190.53	Starting to worry a bit about playing time.
25	Hunter Dozier	KC	1B, OF	241.9	I wonder if getting COVID was part of the reason he struggled in 2020.
26	Carlos Santana	KC	1B	272.22	Is an accumulator that will play everyday.
27	Rowdy Tellez	TOR	1B	247.22	Playing time is becoming an issue with all the talent they have.
28	Andrew Vaughn	CWS	1B	302.51	I think he is up somewhat quickly.
29	Jesus Aguilar	MIA	1B	320.63	An underrated player you can get late.
30	Ryan McMahon	COL	1B, 2B, 3B	251.96	Is he old enough for the Rockies to play him?
31	Bobby Dalbec	BOS	1B	311.43	He’s Sano like.
32	Jake Cronenworth	SD	1B, 2B, SS	186.27	Until we know the DH is coming, he doesn’t have a place to play regularly.
33	Jeimer Candelario	DET	1B, 3B	243.16	Going to hit fifth and should accumulate a decent enough stats to be usable.
36	Evan White	SEA	1B	352.82	Debut was disappointing, but we shouldn’t write him off.
35	Tommy La Stella	SF	1B, 2B	305.92	Might lead off in SF.
34	Nate Lowe	TEX	1B	309.73	The #FreeNateLowe crowd may get disappointed if he can’t close the holes in his swing.
37	Wilmer Flores	SF	1B, 2B	327.14	Playing time is an issue unless the DH comes.
38	Colin Moran	PIT	1B	402.22	Will play everyday in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean a lot.
39	Garrett Cooper	MIA	1B	358.22	Probably not an everyday player.
40	Brandon Belt	SF	1B	336.16	May not be ready for Opening Day.
41	Josh Fuentes	COL	1B	464.88	Penciled in as the first baseman, but I doubt he is an everyday player.
43	Michael Chavis	BOS	1B, 2B, OF	396.82	No longer a starter after the Kiké signing.
42	Ji-Man Choi	TB	1B	501.31	Strong side platoon player the Rays seem to love.
44	C.J. Cron	FA	1B	313.69	Needs to find a job.
45	Renato Nunez	FA	1B	402.12	Like Cron, he needs to find a job. Could head overseas.
46	Mitch Moreland	FA	1B	533.33	Moreland will land somewhere, but playing time will always be an issue.
47	Mike Brosseau	TB	1B, 2B, 3B	421.57	Short-side platoon guy best for DFS.
48	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B	645.35	Curtain call time.
49	Seth Brown	OAK	1B	715.04	Could have some playing time with Krush gone.
50	Seth Beer	ARZ	1B	669.31	Needs the DH in the NL more than any other player in baseball, but dude can mash.

ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions leagues since 1/1/21

13 Comments

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dougiejones

4 years ago

Why do you consider Goldy “No longer a stud”? He had a 142ops+ last year with absolutely no protection in the lineup. Completely changed his approach a the plate if you look at his plate discipline breakdowns.

southie

Reply to dougiejones

Last ‘year’? Last season was a small sample size shit show. Also the lineup protection fallacy has been mostly debunked.

tomerafan

Reply to southie

231 PA’s isn’t too small a sample size to respect that he posted his highest walk rate in several years and his lowest K-rate ever. His power output decreased but his BABIP was in line with career norms. I think that results in a potential “next-phase” performance for a couple of years.

Having Arenado in the lineup will only help Goldy’s fantasy stats even if lineup protection is often overstated. If healthy, Goldy is still a .290 / .380 / .470 type hitter that puts up a +/- 130-135 wRC+. He’s still a top-8 1B performer especially with Muncy and LeMahieu more likely to play 2B for their fantasy teams than 1B.

Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017

I do think he’s good value where he’s ranked but he has some bad trends. 3 consecutive drops in .ISO and EV and will be 34. That’s a trend very difficult to reverse at his age. If he hits 30 HR ever again I’ll be surprised, and if the peripherals also aren’t there (his high avg or obp depending on your league, runs, lack of SB) then he quickly becomes a modest asset.

carterMember since 2020

Reply to Buhners Rocket Arm

He had a good year last year, but I wouldn’t count on him to repeat. He is in the JDM bucket for me, I wouldn’t even consider him until many rounds after someone else has already drafted him.

Lanidrac

He won’t be 34 until September.

docgooden85Member since 2018

I tend to be lower than most on Goldschmidt on the theory that hitters who struggle with elite velocity will tend to have a swift decline in the modern era. That said, my info. on Goldschmidt is via my memory circa 2018, so I could be misremembering or things could have changed.