Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – September 16th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

DavidJohn Herz: Can all the DavidJohn fans do a lap of honor for these last two starts. Next two are @NYM & vs KC. We still rolling with him? And is he the most hyped Nats starter going into 2025?

Justin Mason: I think you can roll with him in most formats depending on your other options. I think he will definitely get some hype and could be their top starter drafted depending on how he and Gore finish the season

JoeG: Pick two for this week , need Wins & Ks : Bobby Miller -Mia Megill -Wash Nick Martinez -Pit BHurter-Bal AMarsh-Det JCantillo-Min Povich-Det

Justin Mason: Megill for me

Ben: Justin – Would you trust Severino vs PHI this week?  He pitched well @ PHI in his last start.  Gave up 2 HRs – both to Harper but nothing else.  League counts IP, QS, and K/9.  Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think it is pretty risky tbh. I would look for another option personally

Broken Bat: Innings pitched isn’t the answer as the SP of Dodgers have been monitored very closely; however they despite the tender care continue to breakdown. The list is long of SP who have had significant arm injuries. A FA SP would be nuts to sign  with Dodgers. What gives?

Justin Mason: I think this is partially just bad luck and the injury risk they took on. Glasnow and Kershaw have long history of injuries so we can’t be surprised there

Justin Mason: They luckily have the depth to make it work and an offense that can carry them

Bill: M Harris (7 games – LAD, @ CIN, @ MIA) or JD Martinez (7 games – WAS, PHI) this week?  Need power.  JD has been in terrible slump.  Thank you.

Justin Mason: I think if you need power, JD is the answer

Patrick: Do you trust Canning against the Sox? He’s had some rough outings even against bad offenses.

Justin Mason: I avoided it even though he was available in a few of my leagues. I just can’t trust his volatility. However, you don’t get easier matchups, so I don’t blame anyone for doing it.

Save Chaser: Devin Williams‘ workload is being “closely monitored” per Pat Murphy. I just need SV. Would you hold or drop him for Foley or Green?

Justin Mason: hold

Sign my yearbook!: Hi Justin! For the flag in 15-team h2h 5×5, Soderstrom or Donovan at 1B this week? Thanks again for your sage wisdom this year.

Justin Mason: depends on what your team needs are. If you need power, then go with Soderstrom. If it is average or runs, then go Donovan

Reid at your own Risk: Is there anything Detmers can do today that would make you confident starting him at Houston?

Justin Mason: I am really intrigued by Detmers first two starts back. He looks more in command of his pitches, but his history of losing his command is so long, that I don’t think I would risk it against Houston

Kutter Crawfish: Sit/start Kutter vs. Minnesota this week? Gave up 4 to the Yankees, but that’s a scary lineup and the k’s were back somewhat. Am I delusional?

Justin Mason: In a 15 teamer I would start him. In a 12 or shallower, I didn’t personally.

Jojo: bench 1 in h2h points weekly matchup baz (bos, tor), Gil (@sea, oak), civale (phi, ari)? Win 10pts QS 5, K 1, ER -1.

Justin Mason: Civale

Last of the OFs: Varsho, Deluca, Moniak, or Jordyn Adams to close the season? OBP league, but homers matter more. (I realize Varsho is the best player of the 3, but his shoulder bothers me/him.)

Justin Mason: Varsho for power

BLC: JT Realmuto or Keibert Ruiz in weekly leagues? Razzball projections say Ruiz, but Realmuto has been hot recently (when healthy).

Justin Mason: I am going with Realmuto here.

Yankee E: Starting Josh Jung or Michael Busch this week?  Busch has been hot and has great team matchups (Oak and Wash), but probably faces four lefties and may sit at least twice?

Justin Mason: I think I am going Busch

Idiotic Failson: I picked Darvish up off the waiver wire for ultra cheap. Is he worth starting this year, and is he worth keeping for a low cost?

Justin Mason: I am going to start him this week for the White Sox start. I think he should be keepable next season for cheap personally. I kind of give him a pass for this season based on all the off the field personal stuff that derailed his return. Hopefully that is behind him coming into next season

Yankee E: Trusting Arrighetti or Schwellenbach this week?  Arrighetti may get two starts, but as the Padres for one and Schwellenbach has been more reliable?

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach is safer, but if you need the strikeout upside and win potential, I would take the Arrighetti two-step

Ken: Thanks for the chat as always. Trying to hang on to an in the money finish in a 5×5 roto. HR/R/AVG in that order are priority. For this week:

Ken: Hi Justin thanks for the chat. 5×5 roto, trying to hang on to the money. HR/R/AVG priority. Big decisions are 5th OF (Wallner or PCA) and 1B/CI who to sit (play two) between Burleson/Royce Lewis/Horwitz, who I just picked up because those other two are slumping bad..

Justin Mason: Lewis and Wallner

Yankee E: The fear with Schwellenbach is that he gives up HRs and is pitching in Cincy.  Well founded fear or overreaction?

Justin Mason: It is definitely a risk in Cincy, but he doesn’t walk guys so if he does, it shouldn’t hurt too bad

Jojo: Which of these seemingly benched hitters is likely to get more ab this week, conforto or m Vargas?

Justin Mason: Vargas

Yankee E: In a league where saves and holds are separate categories, start Weaver, Kerkering, or take a chance that Cano is healthy?  Leaning Weaver because he is more important to the Yankees bullpen than Kerkering and thus more opportunities?

Justin Mason: Weaver

Idiotic Failson: What’s the deal with Boegarts this year? Is he just on the downside of his career, or is this just something you chalk up to being a bad year?

Justin Mason: I think the injury really derailed his season and he has been a bit unlucky. If he was on a 600+ PA pace, we wouldn’t be very worried. I think he is a bounceback guy next year that will be affordable

Rickey: thanks for these chats. Appreciate these and all the podcasts.

Justin Mason: I appreciate you all coming in and chatting with me! Though, I do need more questions

JG: Varsho has a bad back

Justin Mason: Definitely want to make sure he is in the lineup tomorrow. If he isn’t or you need to make a decision today, go elsewhere

TC: Should I start Maikel Garcia or Xavier Edwards?

Justin Mason: Edwards

Tough Matchups: Thank you for these chats as always, Justin. H2H Categories: Webb @ BAL or Bryce Miller vs. NYY? I would normally default to Webb here, but he has been scuffling of late while Miller has pitched well, particularly at home. On the other hand, the Yankees offense has been performing a fair bit better than Baltimore’s…

Justin Mason: I think I lean Webb here because of the park and Baltimore struggling offensively. I think you are less likely to get a blowup while going up against the Yankees is scary.

Question Asker: Where are you buying Bobby Miller next season? Is he a good bounce back candidate or a Dustin May redux?

Justin Mason: I think for me it is going to depend on what the price is to buy back in. I am not ready to believe he is broken or forgot how to pitch. I am hoping he revamps in the offseason and gets back to who we think he can be.

PG: How would you rank Bradford vs Kumar Rocker as single start streamers this week?

Justin Mason: Depends on what you need. K’s for Rocker could be fantastic, but I don’t think he goes deep enough to qualify for a win.

Question Asker: Chris Sale is drafted as the X best SP off the board next year?

Justin Mason: Top 10 for sure.

Broken Bat: Response to my ? Agree they have offense. May, Buelher, Ryan, all broke down.

Justin Mason: I don’t know that you can necessarily blame the organization for that though. I think it is a lot of bad luck on those guys

John: Saves+Holds format.  Tinoco in MIA?

Justin Mason: I picked him up for a few saves down the stretch. The problem is Miami isn’t good so the upside is limited over the last two weeks.

Idiotic Failson: Is Erceg the Royals closer next year?

Justin Mason: I think he is. Unless they sign or trade for someone

Justin Mason: which is unlikely.

Rick: Uceta (TB) still the guy for Saves and Holds?  Know he was suspended and that he’s back.  Did he lose any mojo?

Justin Mason: I think it is still a fluid situation in Tampa. Manuel Rodriguez and Uceta will likely share

Question Asker: What happened to Austin Riley this year?

Justin Mason: Missing time with injury and some poor luck. The underlying numbers don’t really point to anything other than that. Buy back next season for me

Question Asker: How’re your leagues going this year?

Justin Mason: So of my 11 Faab leagues, I am in the top 4 of all of them. Some of them are pretty precarious in terms of cashing or not so these next few weeks are going to be stressful. I didn’t fair well in my draft and holds or gladiators (bestball). I am only going to cash in one Gladiator, though I will win that one. So I will be reworking those in the offseason

Tom: C. Santana or Arenado ROS?  Need HR and RBI

Justin Mason: Santana

Timmy: Do you trust O’s to keep playing Mullins vs LHP?

Justin Mason: I think probably not. He is hitting better against them in the second half, but he also hasn’t been there a lot against them and they now have a ton of talent to pivot to

Pat Listachio: On your gladiator, what does your team look like? I’ve never done and was wondering whether it’s even possible to have a full playable roster by the end.

Justin Mason: My pitching staff is fairly beat up with both Means and Paxton on the IL and I am out of closers because I drafted Bendar and Scott Barlow when there was talk Clase might get moved, but my offense has carried me and I have Wheeler, Imanaga, and Bryce Miller

Question Asker: In dynasty leagues, do you prefer leagues where prospects are picked up throughout the year, or where prospects can only be added once or twice a year via draft?

Justin Mason: I like being able to pick them up in season except for the players that have recently been drafted into MLB. One of my leagues has a rule that you can’t pick them up if they aren’t in the system by Memorial Day and I like that

Guest: But are you still starting Mullins where you have him?  I’m not sure I care that he sits versus Snell (it’s probably better that he does) and he had two HRs and two SBs last week and Balt moved him to second or third in a powerful lineup.

Justin Mason: I am

Going fishing: I need wins and K’s in my 5×5 roto, fighting it out for 3rd place, should I gamble on Edward Cabrera ROS?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so. Wins won’t be there in Miami and I worry that there is always blow up potential

Joe: Someone should look at why Elly is so horrible his first time up.  Specifically in the first inning. It would be interesting to know if he is swinging more/less or if it is just some random happening that he hits like a early 2000s SP when he comes up in the first inning. .465 OPS

Justin Mason: I will add this to my offseason list!

Jeff: Would you roll with Bart or Ruiz at C this week? 12 tm I’m in the championship. Thank you for all the guidance this year

Justin Mason: Bart

Ken: Outlook in 2025 on Bailey Ober? He’s been pretty great apart for some bad blowups that really inflated the overall numbers so he seems tough to rank

Justin Mason: I love Ober and will likely have him as a top 15-20 starter heading into 2025. The blowups have been awful, but if you just cut off the first one of the season, he has a 3.48 ERA and 167 ks in 160.1 innings. I think he is so reliable most of the time

Back2Back?: Thanks for these chats weekly! I rarely get to attend them live, but always read (and learn something from) the transcripts.

Justin Mason: I appreciate you reading them back and joining when you can!

Andy: Any news on severity of O Cruz ankle injury?

Justin Mason: they said it just stiffened up. Shouldn’t be serious.

Idiotic Failson: What is your ETA Lazaro Montes?

Justin Mason: 2026 or 27

Henry: Expectations for D Crews ROS?  and 2025?  Thx

Justin Mason: I feel like he is a .245 kind of hitter with power that should emerge more next season. I like the approach and contact rates are decent. The speed component in Washington is nice because they let everyone run. Price will be very interesting to see because he may be someone people push up in drafts.

Back2Back?: I’m trying to defend my 12-team, AL-only, keeper 4×4 (no Ks or Runs) league title.  It’s a long-running league (well over 30 years) and I joined in 2004.  I won my 5th title last year, and am trying to hold onto a 6-point lead with two weeks to play, which would make me the first repeat champion since I’ve been in the league.  I ran a “worst case scenario” and it looks like my closest competitor can tie me if everything goes right for him and wrong for me.  Heartburn!

Justin Mason: Good luck! I have been spending hours upon hours each day just watching and playing with the standings in my leagues. Two weeks to go!

Guest: Concern about Devin Williams?  The explanation seemed fine and he got three saves last week, so seems like a must start this week?

Justin Mason: I am rolling with him. They may be careful with him because they are locked into the playoffs, but they also want to get a higher seed so they can’t just shut it down

gary: I’m looking to replace Arenado. Do you think Riley or Schanuel would be a good replacement? thx

Justin Mason: I would look elsewhere

Justin Mason: PAvin Smith is a nice sneaky pickup for the week

Carlos: In my pts league final with only 5 acquisitions allowed for the week. Already used one on an SP…waiting on Lindor news because I want to save my moves for SPs. However, I want to drop Jung (TX) for M. Busch – thoughts?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind that move, but Busch does have a bunch of lefties this week so other options may be better depending on your wire

Jack: Volpe has been horrendous since May.  Do you see him making adjustments for 2025?  Why has he not made adjustments this season?

Justin Mason: Sometimes it is harder for young guys to make adjustments in season. I still believe in the talent long term and think he is someone to buy back on next year

Rick M: Does DJ Herz have more upside than Mitch Keller in Dynasty?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so, but I still am interested in him

TJ: Crazy close pitching categories in AL only — need every K but also dead heats in WHIP and ERA.  Need to play 2 of these 4:  Hurter (@Balt), Rasmussen, Festa(@Bos), Woods-Richardson(@Cle).  I’m tempted to sit Festa and SWR as they have both been poor with short outings for multiple starts now.  Hurter has been remarkable and Rasumssen seems good for 4 IP this week and maybe as many K’s.  What do you think?

Justin Mason: That is really tough. I think I would go Hurter and Festa personally

Justin Mason: I am out of questions! Send some more

HOnkus Wagner: would you rather have Wood or Merrill in a dynasty?

Justin Mason: Wood but it is really close

Guest: Bassitt worth starting? (@TEX and @TB)? In first and trying to protect ratios

Justin Mason: Not if you are protecting ratios

Jeff: Is Jose Iglesias a viable option at 3b this week? 12 tm, other option is Justin Turner. Thanks.

Justin Mason: In that scenario, yes

Scrumptous: Lawrence Butler and Matt Wallner are top X OFs next year in OBP leagues?

Justin Mason: Butler – Top 30, Wallner top70

James Masonite: Weaver or Uceta ROS?

Justin Mason: Weaver

Rickey: is Camineiro pr Neto a better keeper, at the same draft cost?

Justin Mason: Caminero

Scrumptous: Has this season dampened your excitement for Coby Mayo?

Justin Mason: Not really. If anything, he should be really cheap next year

Scrumptous: Too early 2025 SP rankings.  Where is J. Springs?

Justin Mason: top 30

Woo-Turang Clan: Busch or Torkelson for dynasty?

Justin Mason: Torkelson but close

Lenny: Any advice on being in first with two weeks to go? General strategy specific to this?

Justin Mason: Look very closely where you can lose points and gain them. Don’t take massive risks in categories unless you have massive leads over the people behind you

Guest: Starting Turang if limited SS options?  Good last two days,

Justin Mason: I am ok with that

g4: Nola @ MIL this week. Guesstimated ERA for his start?

Justin Mason: 3.38

Lenny: Starting P Lopez with confidence this week @ CLE and @ BOS?  Need IP, QS, K/9

Justin Mason: absolutely

jim: What are your thoughts on Otto Lopez for the stretch run

Justin Mason: cheap source of speed and batting average for deeper formats. Wish he was on a better team

Volpe’s Team: who Would you give as a comp for Anthony Volpe. I have him at an attractive in a 12 team keeper and am nervously hoping he is my ss of the future.

Justin Mason: Diet version of lindor

Rickey: thoughts on Verlander and Darvish next year? Is either a hold at this point?

Justin Mason: Darvish should be. Verlander not so much

Lenny: Is Xavier Edwards for real or Turang 2.0?

Justin Mason: I think Edwards is fairly legit. Good contact skills with a good amount of speed. That being said, I am still a believer in Turang.

In the Hunt: Are you starting Hunter Brown @SD? Had a tough last start but has been great in the 2nd half

Justin Mason: yes

Weird1@Portland: Traditional Rotisserie League (4X4) since 1985. Mostly geezers. Potential sleeper keepers for 2025 are Bryan Ramos and Niko Kavadas. Your thoughts?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about them to give you info. Hit me up next month when I am in 2025 prep mode

Guest: H2H playoffs QS league, would you trust either or neither of Webb vs Baltimore and Freddy Peralta vs. Phillies this week?

Justin Mason: I would trust Peralta

Joe: Real baseball question…gut feel…NYM or ATL for NL WC?  NYM @ ATL 3 gm series in final week makes me lean ATL.

Justin Mason: I lean atlanta, but it will be fun to watch either way!

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me!

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!