Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – September 11th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Need more questions. I will answer what I have now, but will run out quick!

Jesse: If the season ended with status quo from these two, where are you on Matt McClain and Cole Ragans next year?

Justin Mason: I think I am pretty high on Ragans heading into 2024 (as long as the Ankiel level falling apart doesn’t happen again in the next start). The problem is everyone is going to be high on him. I think he is going to be a top 75 player in drafts in NFBC league which will mean he is probably being over drafted.

Justin Mason: As far as McLain goes, I really like him, but the Reds are stacked. I need to see what the team does with the logjam in the offseason before I buy in too highly. He is another guy that could be a top 75 pick, but unless they trade at least one or two guys, the playing time becomes murky for everyone in the infield.

Justin Mason: I started working on my projection for 2024 last night, so I will have a better idea of where I stand on players for 2024 drafts in the near future (like mid-late October)

Ed: In points leagues, is it time to drop Abbott for Michael King or Reese Olson for my playoffs? It’s become more and more difficult to stick with him through what should be good matchups.

Justin Mason: I would prefer not to drop him, but I can understand it for King, especially with the news that Abbott will not make his start on Wednesday and we don’t know if that means he is being pushed back or skipped.

Vince: 10-tm H2H category in 2nd round. Pitching will decide. Which two would you bench or drop THIS WEEK … Morton; Gavin Williams; Peralta; Skubal; Eury Perez; Bobby Miller; Javier; Pepiot; Kyle Harrison; Bryce Miller; Bibee? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Javier and Harrison

Gabe Kapler’s beard: Should I be worried about how the Marlins use Eury Perez down the stretch? On at least one fantasy site (CBS) this past week there was no start indicated, though of course he did take the mound. And it looks the same this week. Can I just assume that he’s taking regular turns like any other starter? I need him in my playoffs, and I think you do, too!

Justin Mason: Right now we have him pitching on Thursday, but I am benching him in leagues where I have usable options.

ColoRADo:

• Starting Wicks today at COL?
• Starting Lynn at all this week? vs. SD, vs. @SEA
• Who do you prefer ROS in OBP – HS Kim, Gimenez, or Crawford?

Justin Mason: I am only starting Wicks in weekly leagues. In a daily lineup league, I would bench. As far as Lynn goes, I would bench him in any league where my ratios can’t withstand a bad game or two. If I need wins is the only scenario where I would start him. I will take Kim over both other options.

Jesse: Happy to oblige if you need more questions – Tork or Casas next year? Also, rank these three SP keepers: Ragans, Gavin Williams, Bryce Miller. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Tork. Ragans, Williams, Miller

Ed: Should the Rangers offense be a clear avoid for mid-tier pitchers right now? Semien and Seager are still scary but the rest of the lineup not so much

Justin Mason: It all depends on what you need. If need wins and strikeouts and that is your best option, go with it. I am not avoiding them necessarily.

Dynasty Dan: Deep Dynasty. Any exciting names in this bunch for 2024?

• Jonathan Aranda
• Matt Wallner
• Johan Rojas
• Gavin Stone
• Louie Varland
• Chase Silseth
• Joey Wiemer

Justin Mason: Wallner is interesting because I think there isa chance he is a full time player next season. I like Silseth especially if Ohtani doesn’t resign and they move back to a five man rotation.

Christina: I am in a dynasty league and am in the playoffs and have two questions: (1) will need to make a SP drop for Stroman if he comes back in time. Has Zach Thompson shown enough to move ahead of Sandoval or Josiah Gray now and going forward? I will only be able to keep one of those three for next year anyway… (2) my OF is Santander, Carpenter, Friedl, Butler, Goodman, Taveras, is it as weak as it looks? we use TB and BB too

Justin Mason: Yeah, I have no problem dropping Sandoval or Gray. I think I would lean dropping Sandoval first. I still think Gray has more value over Thompson in the future. Outfield question depends largely on how deep your league is. I don’t think it is awful but it is not great either. However, outfield is a pretty weak position this year so I wouldn’t be overly worried about it.

Roi: Would you start E Diaz with the 7 Coors starts this week over William Contreras?

Justin Mason: Yes

Guest: Playoff grind, who would you start between Littell (@MIN or @BAL), Sanchez (@STL) or Thompson (PHI)?

Justin Mason: Littell

What’s a pederast, Walter?: I have Wander Franco for cheap in a dynasty league.  I could keep him with small rising costs for the next three years.  If I cut him, it would be for a streaming SP spot for playoffs.  Would you let him go or see what happens this offseason?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he every plays again.

Michael: Eleven team AL only keeper bidding league.  May keep up to 12 of 24.  Thoughts on Clark Schmidt at minimum cost as a keeper for next year?  Other options Maeda and Manoah.  Both slightly more expensive but still very cheap.  thanks

Justin Mason: I will take the discount on Schmidt

Justin Mason: LITTLE LEAGUE HOMERUN!!!

Guest: Any word on Munoz?

Justin Mason: Sounds minor. I don’t think he should miss much time.

Al: Pick 2 keepers: Vlad, Soto or Olson?

Justin Mason: Wow. Need to trade one if you can, but I think I lean Vlad and Soto

The Duda Abides: Carlos Rodon is a top X SP next year  at draft time?

Justin Mason: 25

Gabe Kapler’s beard: How do you think the Twins’ starting rotation will look at the start of 2024? Sonny gone? Kenta gone? So, Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Winder-Varland… Paddack? Woods-Richardson?

Justin Mason: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, random old guy that is cheap

Why not Zoidberg: Thanks for the advice a couple weeks ago. Ended up going 10-0-0 against the top seed. In the championship matchup I’m going reliever heavy to try and take SV/ERA/WHIP but need 2 starters (or at least a 10 ip min). Starting Skubal but need to pick between Webb, Eovaldi, Bibee, Garrett or just leaving the spot blank. Who’d you go with if you’re trying to protect ERA/WHIP?

Justin Mason: Congrats! Garrett is who I would go with.

Tim: Thoughts on Tanner Houck? The stats since the return from injury have been poor and the secondary numbers suggest a big step back overall this yeat

Justin Mason: I think he should be a power reliever.

Paddy: In dynasty, any current set up men who could be closing in April?

Justin Mason: Scott Barlow, Dany Jimenez, Graterol, Hunter Harvey

Guest: Where does Bradish and Grayson fall on the list of pitchers for 2024. Could they be top 15?

Justin Mason: I don’t think they are top 15, but top 30 seems right

MD: the reds choosing to not play matt mclain every day hitting 2nd or 3rd would be the most ridiculous move ever and im shocked you would even suggest this possibility.

Justin Mason: I don’t think that happens, but there is also a massive logjam if and when everyone is healthy. Are they not going to play India and Steer? Someone has to be moved. What if it is McLain and he ends up in a much worse park? I just want to see what happens before I invest at the high price.

Christina: Thank you for the reply, fwiw, the league is 14 teams with 30 man rosters

Justin Mason: I think that is deep enough of a league where I am not overly worried about your outfielders.

M: Pick 2 for this week: Woo @ LAA, Pepiot @ SD, Garrett vs MIL, Ryu 2x start TEX,BOS Littel @MIN,@BAL

Justin Mason: Woo and Garrett

Guest: do either C Keith or C Mayo debut this year

Justin Mason: Maybe Keith but probably not.

Ed: Is Tanner Scott for real/of interest for next year?

Justin Mason: I think he is. He has been great and has shown flashes in the past. I am hoping he is a cheaper option than a lot of the elite guys.

Gross Nationals Product: CJ Abrams or E. Tovar for next season?

Justin Mason: Abrams and not close.

Stringer Bell: Any sneaky streams for a QS league this week? Trying to make the finals!

Justin Mason: Kyle Wright? Brandon Williamson?

BaltimOre’s: Wins haven’t been coming easy lately and I know you shouldn’t chase them. At this point in the season, is it worth rolling out 6 RPers to preserve ratios? I should keep my place in Ks and Wins for the remainder of the season. Could make up ground in SVHolds with this strategy. Will I see much movement in ERA/WHIP?

Justin Mason: I am literally doing this in my two most important leagues. If you can gain (or lose) more points in WHIP and ERA than wins and K’s, then roll out elite relievers. Maybe you get lucky with K’s and Wins too. I did it recently and got two wins with Coulombe

Al: How good can TORKELSON ultimately be?

Justin Mason: I think he has shown a lot of growth. I think the ceiling is really high still and I wish I hadn’t sold low on him in a dynasty league.

Tim: Thank you for doing these! can we still think of Robert Suarez being a closing option next year? Or is he what he is, a set up guy who just shows flashes of 9th inning potential?

Justin Mason: I think he could be the guy but managers like the guys with “experience” so I lean Barlow if they let Hader walk. They could bring Hader back or someone else in too

Guest: Greene @ Mets, Skubal @ LAA, Kirby vs LAD, or Ragans vs HOU. Which two of those are you taking?

Justin Mason: Ragans and Skubal

Roi: Start Bradish v Tampa, Pepiot v SD, or Ragans v Hou?

Justin Mason: Bradish

JoeG: Ever since I received my Rotowear “In Play Runs” shirt my hitters haven’t had too many In Play Runs.

Justin Mason: Oh no! maybe switch it up with your favorite Justin Mason shirt: https://rotowear.com/collections/the-justin-mason-collection

Guest: Hey Justin! Any hope for Christian Javier rest of season? H2H playoffs start this week in my 15 team league and he’s been killing my ratios lately!!

Justin Mason: He has been brutal. We talked about him on the pod this morning. I am using him this week unless I have a really good alternative, but I understand cutting and moving on.

Why not Zoidberg: No question, just appreciating Royce Lewis. He’s been nuts the last few weeks and might be my best pickup on the year

Justin Mason: Unreal. He will be so expensive next year.

Why not Zoidberg: If I’m targeting SB/AVG next week, is Mauricio a good bet or should I look more towards Willi Castro or A. Gimenez?

Justin Mason: I think I lean Gimenez

Al: Will Kyle Wright ever be as good as he was last year?

Justin Mason: Probably not, but I think he can be a usable starter.

Tim: I see word coming out that the Cubs are bringing up Pete Crow-Armstrong; he’s high in the Fangraphs ranks, are you a fan? He seems like he has healthy Harrison Bader upside

Justin Mason: I think he has better upside than that, but his calling card is defense for sure. Just depends on what the contact rate looks like in the Majors.

Acuna Ma-taters!: Can he hit 40?

Justin Mason: He can

Guest: Just a hiccup for Lance Lynn last time out, or sign of things to come? Are you starting him in a 15 team H2H playoff format this week?

Justin Mason: I would not start him in a H2H

Cease/Nola: What in the world has happened to us? Did we just forget how to pitch?

Justin Mason: I think Cease did. I am less worried about Nola, but we did talk about him on the pod today and Paul is more worried on Nola than I am.

PP Devo: Hi Justin – First time caller, but follower through the year.  In first place in AL only standard league.  Detmers or Crawford for this week (weekly changes),

Justin Mason: Lean crawford because of the two starts

Patrick: Is there anything inspiring from Vlad this year that you see a big rebound in 2024 onwards?

Justin Mason: Yeah, underlying numbers seem to say he should rebound next season. I am buying back next season.

Andrew: How would you value and compare Spencer Torkelson and Tristan Casas for the future in a 5×5 $260 AL only keeper league?

Justin Mason: I think they are very similar with Tork being a bit above. I will have projections for 1B done in the next month and I will have a better Idea of where I stand then.

Acuna Ma-taters!: I have no more questions for this year. But I just want to pass the word along that all the Fangraphs writers absolutely KILLED it this season.

Justin Mason: Thank you!

ace: Is Cease worth a start vs KC today?

Justin Mason: If you can afford to have your ratios torched.

Guest: H2H playoffs 6×6 with OBP and Hits as categories.   Do I roll with Ruiz, Elias Diaz or Yainer Diaz at C this week?

Justin Mason: Elias at home in Colorado

Bob: Is Chris Sale cooked?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is cooked, but just not elite anymore.

Hank: Any caution with Burnes this week? Said he should be good to go for Friday but not sure if that means he’ll be 100%?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine. No worries.

Michael W: Who would you rather have in 5×5 dynasty league: K Harrison or Mason Miller? Kirillof or Kelenic or T O’Neill?

Justin Mason: Really interesting question. I lean Miller and O’Neill. The pitching side depends a lot on depth of league though. The deeper the league the more I lean to Harrison because the replacement level when Miller gets hurt will be rougher, but his upside is so good that I tend to go that way.

Wicks for W?: Chasing wins but hard to lose ground in ERA/WHIP — dumb to waste some of my dwindling innings remaining starting Jordan Wicks in coors?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he will get crushed so I understand it. I am using him in weekly leagues.

Gameface: hi Justin, Bello or Megill this week? Thank you.

Justin Mason: Bello

Justin Mason: I am out of questions…

Michael W: Besides this site. Where else do you go for info?

Justin Mason: I spend a lot of time on Baseball Savant and I have been diving more into what Pitcher List has added.

Al: Who do you think will land Yamamoto?

Justin Mason: A west coast team with money that needs pitching. SF or LAD

Guest: Will Ohtani DH this week?

Justin Mason: I think he will. If they were shutting him down, I think they would have done it already

Guest: in need of a 3B for 15 team H2H playoffs. Picked up Lemehieu last week and he was just “meh”. Would you rather have J.D Davis this week?

Justin Mason: Give me Davis in Colorado. Check your wire for Jung too. He could be back this week

Al: Do you believe Ohtani will be an effective SP ever again?

Justin Mason: Sure, but I also think he will continue to get hurt. It is just so much strain to do both. At some point I think he moves to just being a hitter, but maybe that happens in like 4-5 years.

Playoffs, baby: I’m trying to get my pitching right for the weekly matchup. I have Gallen, Steele and RPs Doval and Alzolay going already. Which 3 would you start:
Greene @Mets
Gavin Williams @SF, TEX
Jordan Wicks @COL, @ARI
Ryan Pepiot @SD
Bello @ TOR
Ryan Helsley

Justin Mason: Williams, Helsley, Wicks

Guest: India or Julien this week. All counting cats close

Justin Mason: India

Guest: Will N Marte play this week with a fractured nose?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he does

Why not Zoidberg?: Is it unsportsmanlike to pick up and drop players ahead of a matchup so they’re on wai ers and your opponent can’t pick them up?

Justin Mason: Maybe, but if your league allows it, I don’t mind it.

Al: Is Outman good enough to remain a regular (DYNASTY)?

Justin Mason: I think he has the potential to be one, but the problem is the Dodgers are always a team that could replace him by bringing in a stud. I hope they don’t. I love Outman

In Re: Zoidberg: That’s why you should have matchup acquisition limits!

Justin Mason: Yeah, in daily H2H, you should cap the number of pick ups.

Al: Who would you rather have for tne next decade – Jordan Walker or Outman?

Justin Mason: Walker, but that is tough

Roi: Shane Baz could be a top XX starting pitcher next year?

Justin Mason: 50 I think first season back from TJ caps him a bit.

Daro: Do you think Royce Lewis will be drafted as a top 100 player?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. He may even be top 30-50 in some leagues.

Justin Mason: Few more minutes left, but I need more questions.

Guest: Will E Perez Miami-start this week?

Justin Mason: I think it is risky. I am using him in my NFBC leagues but I would rather take a 0 in those leagues than get smashed by using a bad pitcher.

Michael W: Who’s your desert island top 5 sleepers/prospects you are looking at for 2024?

Justin Mason: Probably too early to answer this one,but I think Skenes, Roman Anthony, and Pereira could make big impacts.

Al: Who would you rather have for the next decade – Nootbaar, Outman, or Jordan Walker?

Justin Mason: Walker

PCA: Can he help me win my league playoffs? No OFs on the wire and I lost Soler.

Justin Mason: I think if you need speed, he could help a lot.

Roi: Would you consider L Webb as a sit in Coors this week?

Justin Mason: Depends on my options and what I was looking for, but I would consider it.

Daro: Top 50 seems aggresive for Royce. Can he be a 25hr 20sb player?

Justin Mason: It definitely is aggressive, but some people will take the 100 PA samaple in the second half and prorate it out to 500 PAs. That would be 35 Homers and 20 SBs with a .300 BA. I am not saying I will, but people will draft him in the top three rounds for sure.

Roi: Can Mookie catch Acuna for MVP?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so.

Why not Zoidberg?: Another sportsmanship Q – what about adding players (say relievers) to make it look like you’re employing one strategy and then when your opponent adjusts, waiting until minutes before rosters lock to swap them all out (in this example with starters)?

Justin Mason: I think that is totally fine to do.

MM boys: Justin. Who you like best for next season and beyond — Noelvi Marte, Davis Schneider or Cole Ragans. Thanks

Justin Mason: Ragans.

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!